Your average ROI in the last 15 years
- Thread starter Sam
- Start date
Don't have 15 years of data, but I do have 10.
Have recovered from a move to southern California in the late 1980. Move to Mission Viejo in 1989, when real estate was at it peak (at least for that time period). Within a year of moving out there, the defense department pulled out, boeing closed a major plant in LA, we had the earthquakes and the fires -- so within 12 months -- housing prices drop 25% - 30%. We had neighbors who actual packed up and walked away from their mortgages.
Moved back to the east in 1991. Our investments including contributions have gained 12.5% since 1997. Our net worth grew at 31% annual from just under 50K to 820K, mainly fueled by the real estate market for our house and condo.
Need a few more good years prior to and into retirement. Our best investment, our children -- the result, four cute grandkids.
dwk
Have recovered from a move to southern California in the late 1980. Move to Mission Viejo in 1989, when real estate was at it peak (at least for that time period). Within a year of moving out there, the defense department pulled out, boeing closed a major plant in LA, we had the earthquakes and the fires -- so within 12 months -- housing prices drop 25% - 30%. We had neighbors who actual packed up and walked away from their mortgages.
Moved back to the east in 1991. Our investments including contributions have gained 12.5% since 1997. Our net worth grew at 31% annual from just under 50K to 820K, mainly fueled by the real estate market for our house and condo.
Need a few more good years prior to and into retirement. Our best investment, our children -- the result, four cute grandkids.
dwk
CyclingInvestor
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jerryo said:
I have records back to when I was 9 (38 years worth), when I got my first paper
route. I wanted to be an accountant when I was a kid. Nowadays I keep everything
(stock trades, balances, deposits/withdraws, taxes, etc) in Excel, so calculating return
over any period is trivial.
tryan
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Only have 10 years of data. NW increased 19%/year on on portfolio consisting of 75-90% real estate. Yeah, my 401k contributions are in there too; but 10-13k contributions were just a drop in the bucket.
Thank you all for participating in the poll. We now have 34 votes.
Observations: I'm a little disappointed in myself for not being able to foresee a significant portion of investors achieving more than 16%. I should have had a few more fields, [16 - 18%], [18 - 20%] and [20% or more]. Oh well, hindsight is always 20/20. I'm somewhat surprised by the high percentage of [I have no idea].
Anyway, keep voting.
Sam
Observations: I'm a little disappointed in myself for not being able to foresee a significant portion of investors achieving more than 16%. I should have had a few more fields, [16 - 18%], [18 - 20%] and [20% or more]. Oh well, hindsight is always 20/20. I'm somewhat surprised by the high percentage of [I have no idea].
Anyway, keep voting.
Sam
Unless these people have some really nice financial software with everything entered into it, including all accounts and amounts for the full 15 years you specified or however long it was, they're pulling these numbers out of their ass.
The matematics is very complicated, since a program has to weight the returns based on amounts invested each and every day as well as dealing with buying and selling of partial shares, etc. In short, you ain't gonna do it in longhand.
My ass someone made 16% in a portfolio over 15+ years, including 2000-2002. I have some snake oil for sale too.
Azanon
The matematics is very complicated, since a program has to weight the returns based on amounts invested each and every day as well as dealing with buying and selling of partial shares, etc. In short, you ain't gonna do it in longhand.
My ass someone made 16% in a portfolio over 15+ years, including 2000-2002. I have some snake oil for sale too.
Azanon
The poll results so far probably have something to say about who is on the board here.
1-Those few with ROI less than 8% most likely are the conservative "got it gonna keep it" CD/bond crowd.
2-The plurality with 8-12% ROI are likely the book-reading diversified asset allocation crowd.
3-Those with a long-term ROI greater than 16% are either dice rollers, prescient, or bad at math.
4-Those who don't know are either new to this money thing or #1 above and embarrassed to admit it.
1-Those few with ROI less than 8% most likely are the conservative "got it gonna keep it" CD/bond crowd.
2-The plurality with 8-12% ROI are likely the book-reading diversified asset allocation crowd.
3-Those with a long-term ROI greater than 16% are either dice rollers, prescient, or bad at math.
4-Those who don't know are either new to this money thing or #1 above and embarrassed to admit it.
#4 is going to be 95% or more of these people. I'd like to see a quicken printout of 15 years with every financial data piece of information entered for someone claiming to actually know the exact figure.
That is, unless they dumped everything they saved in one savings account, lol, then the math might be doable.
Azanon
That is, unless they dumped everything they saved in one savings account, lol, then the math might be doable.
Azanon
scrinch said:3-Those with a long-term ROI greater than 16% are either dice rollers, prescient, or bad at math.
4-Those who don't know are either new to this money thing or #1 above and embarrassed to admit it.
scrinch,
You have an "interesting" way of interpreting the poll results
On number 4, in case anyone is embarrassed, don't be. I am sure your vote is anonymous.Sam
No offense intended. Just trying to guess some generalizations about the results.
A 16% overall portfolio return for a couple of years is great. For 15 years it is remarkable. I'd be interested in hearing how it's done without including high risk or bad math.
I'm one of the "don't knows" because I haven't been keeping track of new contributions to the portfolio.
A 16% overall portfolio return for a couple of years is great. For 15 years it is remarkable. I'd be interested in hearing how it's done without including high risk or bad math.
I'm one of the "don't knows" because I haven't been keeping track of new contributions to the portfolio.
Just so i'm clear too, i'm not accusing anyone of intentionally lying. I bet the person that said that likely believes that what he/she averaged. I also believe this person made an error in this estimation too, but... back on point, i'm not accusing them of intentionally lying.
I agree, it would be very remarkable, especially given that it would include the 2000-2002 timeframe. If only it were true too.
Azanon
I agree, it would be very remarkable, especially given that it would include the 2000-2002 timeframe. If only it were true too.
Azanon
CyclingInvestor
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Azanon said:
If all numbers are already in an Excel spreadsheet (as mine are), then setting up
the equations to compute the return over any period is simple (for a programmer
who plays with Excel alot).
A single decision can result in a 16%+ return over those 15 years, even though
implementing that decision took many steps - going 100% into REITs from late
1998 to Dec 2005. While most here would probably consider that risky, I consider
top-quality companies paying 7-10% dividends and growing at 10% with real
estate backing their prices (as KIM,GGP, VNO,WRE,etc were in '99) to be less risky
than a group of 40 P/E, 0-2% dividend payers (as many regular blue chippers like
WMT, MSFT, JNJ were at the time).
Sure, i understand that. Plunking down 10,000 In Dell computer in 1991 would have done the trick too. Lets clarify then.... are we decussing whats possible or what actually happened? Ok, i can accept, maybe 1 or 2 active participates were this lucky. Maybe... but i'd still like to see it since i'm a skeptic by nature.
........
If you have multiple accounts that were bought and sold over those years, the math isnt going to be easy. Sure, programs can do it... i use qucken, you use excel, but one would need something like that and the 15 years worth of data with everything in there. That's going to be 20% of the people here, tops.
I started actively investing in 96', so this doesnt apply to me. I havent ever attempted to run an average annual return over that long a period of time with quicken... Of course it would have to include many accounts long since closed. hmm, wonder if it could handle that. I'll try it this evening.
CyclingInvestor
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Azanon said:
This was my actual path to FI. If it had been theoretical I would have moved into
REITs Dec 99 and out Feb 06.
I actually have kept a 'mutual fund'-like measure of my performance actively
the whole time, reflecting my early accountant leanings, although I only compute
it at the end of each quarter, so computing the return over any period is easy.
My numbers also only represents Sep 93 to Mar 06, (12.5 years), instead of 15+,
which represents when I got back into individual stocks, so I fall short here.
I realize I was lucky to recognize the opportunity when it arose, and stick with
it, especially thru 1999 when I was down 2% and my friends were up 25-100%.
I have not let my past numbers color my future expectations, however. When I
retire in a few years I plan to live exclusively on the dividends (about 3.6% at
current prices).
tryan
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Not sure about 15 years ... but over 10 years and over 16% - real estate north of Boston (or any noreastern city).
Jane_Doe
Recycles dryer sheets
I don't think you guys are taking into consideration Real Estate as an investment. I voted "don't know" but then used the calculator link and got over 20% return. Yes, it is very possible. Timing helps - without the last couple years when we got this huge jump - if we had sold out five years ago (almost did at one point) we wouldn't be almost ready to ER. I could do a more in depth figuring, but even my basic figuring is quite close. SO, please don't think people answering "over 16%" or "don't know" have no clue - some of us probably don't want to be bothered doing the math, and the others may have a personal investment area that they are savvy with, or had stock options, etc.
YOUR milage may vary. tho!
Have a good day, guys!
Jane
YOUR milage may vary. tho!
Have a good day, guys!
Jane
That would be me, Az, but I've shared enough.Azanon said:
You seem to find it hard to believe, but we kept our paper records and I've been entering the old data (1985-1992) a little at a time over the last decade while keeping up with the newer investments.
Since Quicken will cough up an IRR for just about any combination of security & time I've broken our performance down by those factors as well. We've managed an annual total return of 11% since 1986-- and that's everything including money markets, EE bonds, and some truly sucky individual stocks. During the '80s & '90s we pulled in over 13% per annum from Fidelity's Puritan and Equity-Income funds-- and that's AFTER paying the 2-3% sales charges. We also achieved a tad under 15% from Heartland Value in 1995-2000.
Of course all of this pales alongside the 7500% IRR I achieved from 4Kids Entertainment (KDE), of Pokémon fame, during two weeks in Oct 2002. It paid for a nice family vacation.
BTW we have W-2 & tax-return data going back to the late '70s. I'll know when I break even on my Social Security distributions...
Nords said:
Nords, I would be interested in the break even point too. Don't know how you calculate yours, but my calculation tells me I have to live very looong, much longer than I envision or want to.
Sam
I know the real estate market isn't as volatile as the stock market, and there are many other ways of investing in real estate than pure equity, but how risky do you feel it is to invest a large portion of your networth, leveraged at 80-90%, in real estate equity? I ask honestly, not facetiously. I have a number of friends who have done quite well in real estate. I also have an uncle who, 50 years ago, was a now-he-is, now-he-isn't real estate millionaire several times before he finally died as a very modest thousandaire. Recent history, aside from the effect of the Japanese on some sectors of US real estate in the 80's, seems to suggest that RE prices only go up. Maybe 80% leverage in that market is no riskier than 0% leverage in the stock market.
By the way, stock option proceeds don't count toward ROI. They are earned by work, not investment, so they count as contributions to the portfolio, not portfolio earnings.
By the way, stock option proceeds don't count toward ROI. They are earned by work, not investment, so they count as contributions to the portfolio, not portfolio earnings.
Hey, you gotta have long-term goals-- or else life becomes a meaningless hedonism marathon, right?Sam said:
The first trick of SS recoupment is to use as little data as possible. So I plan to hold my future SS contributions to zero.
I've paid in $45,585 and I expect to start withdrawing about $8000/year (2005 dollars) in 2022. If the ECI keeps going at 3% (arbitrary figure, if someone has a better wage index I'll use it) for another 17 years then I'll be withdrawing $13,223/year.
If I'd invested those SS contributions in a mutual fund paying 6% after tax then I'd have $247,000 in 2022. At that point I'd be withdrawing 5.3%/year. So although I'd recoup my initial contributions within four years, odds are in my favor that I'd never catch up with the compounding. However to determine when I'm sucking out more taxpayer dollars than I've paid in I guess I'd have to track the SS lockbox's earning history since 1977. Anyone have an idea where to find that number?
I'm not sure that anyone should aspire to make a similar "profit" from Medicare.
Another one of my goals is to earn more in pension checks than in active-duty base pay. I should reach that in the high 80s or low 90s.
Spouse and I also think it'd be cute to be together on our alma mater's Top 10 Oldest Alumni list. However minimum qualifying age is currently in three digits. Considering that the incumbents were born when the average life expectancy was ~47 we may have quite the cyborgetic feat ahead of us.
I'll keep you posted...
Nords said:
Nords, are you sure? That number looks low. I don't know how the military work, but in the civilian world, the employer contributes an equal amount to SS on behalf of the employee.
Anyway, my calculation is simple too. By the time I bail, I would have contributed to the SS fund for 30 years. The actual amount contributed included the contribution by my employers as well. I want my ss fund to run out at age 82. Using 3% inflation (COLA), the ROI is only 4.80%
For the fund to run out at age 90 (way to optimistic), the ROI would be 5.65%. There is not a way for me to win, but I never expect to.
Sam
No i dont Nords. I dont find it hard to believe you did. I find it hard to believe that everyone clicking on this thread and responding is spouting out actual, 100% accurate data.
But of course i believe a few of us are actually doing this. As I said, i have all of my data since 1996 and counting. But i'm very anal retentive, and do things that most other people dont do. My dad made a fortune investing, but for the life of him, he'd be totally guessing if you wanted to know his IRR since 91'. Like most big investors and RE positioned people, he has investments scattered all over the place.
Nords, you and I are the exception... the less than 20% of people, not the rule.
And if I had borrowed as much money and pumped it into Dell in 1991, i'd beat the 16%+ too, easy. You're, saying, oh well that's a big if Azanon,.... before realizing you're now seeing my point. ;-)
Again, are we talking about what was possible, or what people here actually pulled off. I simply dont think its likely at all more than 1 or 2 people here averaged within their financial portfolio, greater than 16% IRR from 1991-2006.
> Real estate has been great since 1999 or so. This not to be confused with 1991. Who here invests 100% of their financial net worth exclusively in real estate? Maybe just a small handfull? Then how many of them netted 16%+ since 91' ;-) I wouldnt count actively buying and selling (ie: showing houses in person, or flipping houses spending hrs doing it), because i'd consider that a job. I'd expect a lot more than 16% profit if i did this as an occupation.
Azanon said:
Azanon,
I don't know if anyone cares about what you think. I know I don't give a damn about your thought.
There are so many nice, considerate people on this board, why don't you learn a little from them. You disgust me.
Regards NOT,
Sam
Everybody,
Please forgive me for the above outburst. I just can't help anymore. This guy is just too insulting, too belligerent. Worse, he has not respect for anyone.
Sam
