Midpack
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I am against a bailout, but I take no pleasure in the possibility of the bankruptcy of GM, Ford or Chrysler. Nor do I underestimate the added pain to our economy in such an event. But I believe a bailout prolongs the inevitable (at some expense to taxpayers) and that eventual pain will hit us regardless. The big three have legacy costs that cripple them, we've all known that for decades, and they haven't had the will or ability to deal with it - why now? They got a $25B loan in late Sept, and here we are talking about another $25B less than 2 months later - anyone believe this is the end of a bailout?
Most in favor of a bailout seem to base their position on the inevitability of a complete failure of the auto industry in the US, GM, Ford, Chrysler, all their suppliers, dealers and other associated businesses. That's where I disagree with a bailout...
Could someone explain to me why a complete failure of the entire auto industry is inevitable or even likely if (for example) GM goes bankrupt? I am not aware of the failure of any industry in it's entirety when one of the major players goes bankrupt [except where in markets where a product substitution takes place, ie, slide rules replaced by calculators - we are not talking about the market for automobiles evaporating or being replaced by space ships or teleportation].
If GM goes bankrupt and actually ceases operation, there are still some buyers out there who will then buy a Ford, Chrysler, Toyota or something. So the unforunate demise of one, actually helps the remaining automakers. Same with suppliers, they have already contracted in response to demand at GM, Ford and Chrysler - not sure it gets much worse for them overall. Some will fail, some will hold their place, and some will actually benefit from the failure of others. GM dealers will suffer, but won't that result in a little more traffic in Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, etc. showrooms? This failure of one and consolidation of the remaining players has characterized business/industries for 100's if not 1000's of years, in recessions and even in good times.
Most in favor of a bailout seem to base their position on the inevitability of a complete failure of the auto industry in the US, GM, Ford, Chrysler, all their suppliers, dealers and other associated businesses. That's where I disagree with a bailout...
Could someone explain to me why a complete failure of the entire auto industry is inevitable or even likely if (for example) GM goes bankrupt? I am not aware of the failure of any industry in it's entirety when one of the major players goes bankrupt [except where in markets where a product substitution takes place, ie, slide rules replaced by calculators - we are not talking about the market for automobiles evaporating or being replaced by space ships or teleportation].
If GM goes bankrupt and actually ceases operation, there are still some buyers out there who will then buy a Ford, Chrysler, Toyota or something. So the unforunate demise of one, actually helps the remaining automakers. Same with suppliers, they have already contracted in response to demand at GM, Ford and Chrysler - not sure it gets much worse for them overall. Some will fail, some will hold their place, and some will actually benefit from the failure of others. GM dealers will suffer, but won't that result in a little more traffic in Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, etc. showrooms? This failure of one and consolidation of the remaining players has characterized business/industries for 100's if not 1000's of years, in recessions and even in good times.