Hawaii home-buyer's mortgage math

[honobob]

PITI

laurencewill, how long is eventually? I can document the 9% growth over 30 years and suspect it goes back at least to the late 40's. Median income in 1978, $18,000 would be a guess and at 4% increases you'd be about $60K today. So riding my WayBack machine to 1978...."Well Sherman, do you really think this crappy $35,000 one bedroom condo will be worth over $400,000 in thirty years? At 50% of gross people would need to make $135,000 in 2008! Yeah and that disco movie guy John Travolta will be an Acadamy Award nominated actor piloting commercial jets across the country. Ha Ha Haaa Haaa Oh, and Hilton will be selling timeshares on Waikiki Beach!"

I'm not the first person in the forum to point out that Hawaii is not dependent on local wages. Name a person of wealth and there's a good chance they've got a place here, Oprah, George Harrison, Carol Burnett, The Donald, Etc. Who do you think are pricing out the "locals"?

Won't let me edit to fix math.

 

[bots2019]

George Harrison died in 2001.

 

[honobob]

George Harrison died in 2001.

I believe the estate of George Harrison still owns the property near Hana and some of the celebrities that own now I wouldn't recognize. Wasn't sure you'd know who Sylvia? Harrison was.

 

[laurence]

laurencewill, how long is eventually? I can document the 9% growth over 30 years and suspect it goes back at least to the late 40's. Median income in 1978, $18,000 would be a guess and at 4% increases you'd be about $60K today. So riding my WayBack machine to 1978...."Well Sherman, do you really think this crappy $35,000 one bedroom condo will be worth over $400,000 in thirty years? At 50% of gross people would need to make $200,000 in 2008! Yeah and that disco movie guy John Travolta will be an Acadamy Award nominated actor piloting commercial jets across the country. Ha Ha Haaa Haaa Oh, and Hilton will be selling timeshares on Waikiki Beach!"

I'm not the first person in the forum to point out that Hawaii is not dependent on local wages. Name a person of wealth and there's a good chance they've got a place here, Oprah, George Harrison, Carol Burnett, The Donald, Etc. Who do you think are pricing out the "locals"?

I didn't know celebrities were in the market for crappy 1 bedroom condos! What's the old phrase? Past performance is no predictor of future returns? If you are just going to filter on "super luxury beach front villas on/near diamondhead" well, that's not really a market anyone here is looking to invest in anyway.

 

[honobob]

I didn't know celebrities were in the market for crappy 1 bedroom condos! What's the old phrase? Past performance is no predictor of future returns? If you are just going to filter on "super luxury beach front villas on/near diamondhead" well, that's not really a market anyone here is looking to invest in anyway.

Well actually the celebrities are in the crappy $1-5M one bedroom condos a few hundred yards away on the water or two parcels away in $25,000,000 estates on the same slope of Diamond Head that I am on. I only say crappy because that's what some people said when I paid $35,000 and they had much larger homes in the midwest that they paid $25,000 for but are now only worth maybe $150,000 and mine is worth over $400,000. I love all my condos with Kapiolani Park as my front yard and the ocean a five minute walk away. But that's why they command higher prices and higher rents,

"Past performance is no predictor of future returns" is something I've not heard pertaining to real estate. I like location, location, location, and past location generally carries forward. So are you representing all members of the forum in their real estate investing or are you just saying people here wouldn't invest in a high appreciation rate area? Why?

No superstars in my NBHD that I know of but one of the owners is the mother of a movie star and the mother-in-law of a major A list super star. I helped get her elected to our HOA. So yeah we're probably only second or third tier to major stars. Probably better for that fact. Think of Britany as your next door neighbor vs. her sister.......well maybe not the best example.

 

[honobob]

Still no bubble in Hawaii

Sales down from record sales volume a year ago but prices holding firm after years of double digit appreciation.

Oahu home, condo resales down - Pacific Business News (Honolulu):

 

[laurence]

And so it begins - replace the word "Hawaii" with the word "San Diego" and the press release could have been from 2006. Then again, San Diego isn't a high value area, nobody wants to live there.

 

[honobob]

Imagine my surprise today when I checked on listings in my condo development. I bought in 1978 for $35,000 with $2,000 down. I've conservatively estimated it at $400,000 in my net worth. So overnite I'm up $350,000 to $450,000!!!! I've won the real estate lottery, again! These are one bed one bath units.

4% appreciation my *ss!


Diamond Head Alii Corp

FS New Diamond Head Alii Corp - 1 flr Diamond Head $750,000 FS New Diamond Head Alii Corp - 1 flr Diamond Head $850,000

A...lo...ha! Today is a good day to buy real estate.

 

[clifp]

I have looked at the development a several years ago 2 bdr were going for 400K and I thought it was overpriced. The nice thing about Real Estate is you can ask any price you want for property the trick is finding somebody to pay it.

My house in St. Louis Heights 3 time larger is on a rim lot, with a spectacular Diamond head view. (I can even see those units) and it it was appraised about between 800-900K and it was built at the same time.

 

[honobob]

I have looked at the development a several years ago 2 bdr were going for 400K and I thought it was overpriced. The nice thing about Real Estate is you can ask any price you want for property the trick is finding somebody to pay it.

My house in St. Louis Heights 3 time larger is on a rim lot, with a spectacular Diamond head view. (I can even see those units) and it it was appraised about between 800-900K and it was built at the same time.

clifp You have the wrong development. These are all one bedrooms. You might be thinking of the large apartment conversion across the street that was sold as condos about eight to ten years ago. Nice townhouses that started about $200K, quickly went to $400K, I looked at them a few years ago at $600K. Haven't seen one one the market for awhile. The La Pietra townhouses over a bit are selling for $1-2 million but they are definitely nicer and larger.

The location so close to the park, the beach and Waikiki is what really supports these values. As gas prices and traffic gets worse I think there's only upside to close in locations. What's it cost you to get up that mountain? Although down is almost free I guess. Plus with the crackdown on illegal vacation rentals I'm anticipating greater demand for those properties that can do short term rentals and this one allows vacation rentals.

I hear you about asking prices. I made an offer on a Waikiki property last Thanksgiving and thought they used my market offer to get another sale but they never sold and it came up on the market again in the last week and I made another offer, provided comps and offered slightly over market because it's in a building that I own another unit. They dropped a whopping $2,000 on an over $400,000 asking price!! I said I'd pay any market value they can support but they are trying to collect next years appreciation in advance. My Realtor said they had another offer so I didn't even bother to counter but that deal didn't get made either. They either really don't want to sell or are plain greedy.

 

[Nords]

Folks, please don't feed the troll.

 

[honobob]

Folks, please don't feed the troll.

Nords............What is your problem?

I thought I was on your ignore list. Why are you chasing me down? Is there something here that is not a fact? Just because I caught you in a blatant lie in an earlier post because you thought you were the all knowing of Oahu. Go HOME!! Enjoy your life! You have no purpose here.


HAVE A NICE LIFE!

 

[laurence]

Folks, please don't feed the troll.

What he said. +1

 

[honobob]

What he said. +1

Because?

 

[honobob]

What he said. +1

What is your problem?

Unfortunately I came on the forum a couple of years ago and gave my history of investment in the Diamond Head area of Oahu. At that time Nords expressed his interest in investing in a DH condo. Shortly there after he proclamed that HIs Good buddy, REALTOR STOTT said to bail on Hawaii even tho the Stott family was scraping to get in on the Trump Deal and I had knowledge because they had been a party of a transaction I was involved in and were sending me a newsletter advocating to invest in Trump Hawaii.
Go Away Go away

 

[laurence]

"Home sales on Oahu are starting off the year at the worst pace in over a decade: down 23% year-to-date. For April, home sales were off 9.2% from March, and off 25.1% from April 2007.
Nevertheless, the median price for single-family, re-sale homes on Oahu rose 1.8% from March to $639,000 last month. Year-over-year, the median price was off 3.9%. I suspect prices are holding firm for two reasons: first, the weakness in the American dollar is bringing in foreign buyers who gravitate to higher-priced properties, and, two, so far, a lower level of foreclosures than the mainland. I give more weight to the first.
The median price for condos dipped 0.7% from March to $327,000. Year-over-year, the median price was up 0.6%.
Condo sales fell 2% from March, and were off 27.1% compared to April 2007."

Hawaii Real Estate Market Trends


4% my a** indeed. 4% will be a fond memory this year. Unless you are a captain of industry who sees through the cloud of confusion to masterfully select the 2 properties that will defy the odds.

Bragging should never be confused for financial advice.

 

[honobob]

"Home sales on Oahu are starting off the year at the worst pace in over a decade: down 23% year-to-date. For April, home sales were off 9.2% from March, and off 25.1% from April 2007.
Nevertheless, the median price for single-family, re-sale homes on Oahu rose 1.8% from March to $639,000 last month. Year-over-year, the median price was off 3.9%. I suspect prices are holding firm for two reasons: first, the weakness in the American dollar is bringing in foreign buyers who gravitate to higher-priced properties, and, two, so far, a lower level of foreclosures than the mainland. I give more weight to the first.
The median price for condos dipped 0.7% from March to $327,000. Year-over-year, the median price was up 0.6%.
Condo sales fell 2% from March, and were off 27.1% compared to April 2007."

Hawaii Real Estate Market Trends


4% my a** indeed. 4% will be a fond memory this year. Unless you are a captain of industry who sees through the cloud of confusion to masterfully select the 2 properties that will defy the odds.

Bragging should never be confused for financial advice.

You have Dental? Looking kind toothless.

 

[bssc]

I have lock this down to give everyone a chance to cool off.

Thanks for taking a break.