Picture a subset of the grid that consumes an average of 100 MW-hrs each day. And let's say this is a relatively 'clean' grid, with 30% coming from wind/solar ( I intentionally leave out hydro, as we really can't add much/any hydro in the US, and what we use is already accounted for, and some grids have little hydro anyhow). A kind of simple/stupid question to illustrate the point -
Why isn't that grid @ 40% solar/wind? Obviously, because they just don't have anymore solar/wind available. If they did, they would use it, and that % would be higher. So we have:
100 MW-hrs produced/consumed per day
30 MW-hrs of that is from wind/solar
So now imagine this area gets a lot of EVs, and demand goes up to 105 MW-hrs per day. Well, the 30 MW-hrs of solar/wind are already being consumed, they can't just 'crank up' the sun or the wind. So what do they do? They crank up the fossil fuel plants, that's all they can do, right? Following? So therefore, nearly ALL the electricity generated for the EVS was from fossil fuel. I fail to see how it could be otherwise.
Small caveat - you hear that there is occasionally an excess of wind on some grids at night. So that could be used to charge EVs. However, I think if you look at the numbers, that's a small and uncommon occurrence (it wouldn't make the news if it happened 3-4 times a week!). And if they added enough wind to make that routine, they'd have such extreme excesses on average, that it just doesn't seem cost effective (without that elusive/expensive storage that just doesn't exist).
And one pre-emptive comment - someone will say that the grid will have 5% more solar/wind when those EVs arrive. Great, but it doesn't change anything. The EVs are still an incremental increase - take the EVS away, and solar/wind would be even higher %. You still are burning fossil fuel to power the EV. Up until we have regular, routine excesses of solar/wind - IOW, over 100% renewables. Don't count on that.
-ERD50