Katrina II (aka Rita)

Laurence said:
I grudgingly admit I moved Texas up a notch on the ol' respect-o-meter recently. ;)

While we Texans sincerely appreciate your grudginess, I'm going to reserve judgement until this monster blows over.
 
justin said:
Brewer,

I heard Big Oil is making decisions based on oil prices in the $25-30/barrel range, not the current price.  Therefore, it doesn't make sense (based on their assumptions) for Big Oil to search for more oil or extract more oil. 

As to Branson's idea for locating his refinery, he talked about Africa or Europe.  Even Newfoundland.  Newfoundland refined fuels could fairly easily be transported via pipeline to the US.  Dunno the shipping method du jour for Africa-US oil or Euro-US oil - tanker? 

If prices for oil and refined oil products stay at current levels, I think we'll see some movement from Big Oil, or there will be new market entrants.  Not tomorrow, but eventually.  It takes people like Branson who want to take a risk.  He also mentioned how the new oil business would hedge some fuel pricing risks from his airline section.  I'm sort of cynical about this - couldn't he hedge through the financial commodities/futures markets more easily?  I think he's a greedy bastard that wants to profit from oil/refined oil products (good for consumers!!!). 

I repeat: companies like Exxon are not expanding drilling because they can't. There aren't enough drilling rigs, trained personnel, drilling territories, etc. The mid-sized and smaller guys are drilling every square inch they can get to.

As for refinery locations, Newfoundland might conceivably work, although I don't know how tough the infrastructure build would be. Europe is a pipe dream. You gonna put it on the French Riviera/ Don't think so. Where in Africa would you like to put a refinery that costs many billions to build? Nigeria? Cote d'Ivoire? South Africa? Then where are you going to get the tankers to move the product? Every single-hulled tanker has to be scrapped between 2010 and 2015, so the shipyards are already booked up for years to come.

There is no easy or cheap solution to the problem. There may not even be a feasible solution.
 
This mornings news conference had lots of info.  And what a contrast between the Mayor of Houston and the Mayor of N.O.!

I should point out that everything that is going on is the result of city/towns, counties and TX state.  This is not a federal effort, it would be scary to have people who don't know the area, people & resources to arbitrarily implement some "plan".

TXDOT, for the first time ever, is reversing (counterflowing) an interstate.  Approx. 110 miles of I-45.  That is one hell of an undertaking.  They are having a contractor working further up I45 come down and build a quick median cross over between exits.  TXDOT is leading the effort to place vehicles and people to man the soon to be wrong-way entrance ramps for all those miles, and handle people who need to get off along the way.  Think about it - at least 110 miles!  After they get this stable, they are going to do it on HWY 290, then after that, attempt to do it on I-10.  They have doubts that they have enough people and equipment to do it on I-10.  They are talking about 10,000 people and equipment to do this.  Never before has something of this magnitude been done.

Galveston and much of Brazoria county is empty.  The withdrawal is staged, those closest go first.  The logistics are tough.  How to get gas tankers to resupply gas stations when they can't get there due to the traffic lines, and then counterflowed interstates to boot.

They are doing a good job stressing the fact that if you see long lines on TV, that doesn't mean you should wait till later to go!

Just saw on TV that a Clear Lake couple said it took 12 hours overnight from their house to Dallas.  Then they finally found a hotel room.  Probably the last one!  City of Dallas does not have any shelters open, they are full up with Katrine evacuees.

The LA evac and resettlement was one thing, they didn't have 300,000 people from another state in their midst, Texas does!

Looks like Rita has started to turn  a bit, Beaumont and Port Arthur are now in the storm surge zone now too.  When we say Beaumont and Port Arthur, think gasoline and chemicals.  25% of the US refining capacity is in the Houston through BM PT-A area.
 
TXDOT has counterflowed I-45 for 125 miles N-NW out of Houston towards Dallas.  And counterflowed I-10 for 150 MILES west from Houston towards San Antonio. 
They have left HWY 290 alone, to use it as a two-way so access to Houston is maintained.

Many people not in the MANDATORY Evac. areas have decided to leave too (always a personal choice, can't blame them!) which has added many more vehicles on the routes.

As Rita appears to have moved tracking more East, more evac's have become mandatory up the coast. 

One of the main problems appearing is gasoline.  No area is prepared for everyone to go fill their tank all at once.  And they need a full tank to make it out of the area.  People using smaller roads have moved up N NE of Houston, it has taken them many hours, and they are driving through small towns gobbling up all the gas that the locals in that area now need themselves to evacuate.

TXDOT has gotten donations from Dallas area fuel consortiums, from San Antonio area too so they can re-fuel some stations along the main evac routes.  They say fuel acquisition is really tight.  That the Katrina mess has made it all worse to boot.

There just isn't the local storage and supply to suddenly fuel millions of cars and trucks in a narrow time window.

The Mayor of Houston, Bill White, has contacted the Feds about aerial lift of fuel to get fuel to empty cars along the routes.  He said no word back from the Feds on that yet.  TXDOT is doing what they can with remaining trucks and personnel, to give stranded people a gallon or two to get them along/off the evac roads.  They say that many people have pitched in helping each other, that the routes are not impeded by stalled cars.  The next conference is at 7 PM, sounds like Houston/counties/TXDOT/State are trying to figure out more fuel relief on their own.  No time to wait.

The coordination and information from all levels of TX agencies looks super.

We heard from one of our kids this morning... evacuees all over, going through, etc.  Gas all gone.  Walmart out of most edibles.  Didn't ask if any jars of Pickled Pigs Feet were left  :p  That would be reeeaal desperate!
These towns are already loaded with Katrina evacuees from LA. 
Cell phones are useless, systems overloaded with all the people on.  Text messages seem to get through, though it may take an hour.  One advantage of low bit-rate packet communication, but not like you can try to locate a hotel room in Oklahoma via text!
 
Hmmm, I am feeling better about my decision to keep a few gallons of gas tucked away in the shed "just in case".
 
Telly said:
TXDOT has counterflowed I-45 for 125 miles N-NW out of Houston towards Dallas.  And counterflowed I-10 for 150 MILES west from Houston towards San Antonio. 
They have left HWY 290 alone, to use it as a two-way so access to Houston is maintained.

Many people not in the MANDATORY Evac. areas have decided to leave too (always a personal choice, can't blame them!) which has added many more vehicles on the routes.

As Rita appears to have moved tracking more East, more evac's have become mandatory up the coast. 

One of the main problems appearing is gasoline.  No area is prepared for everyone to go fill their tank all at once.  And they need a full tank to make it out of the area.  People using smaller roads have moved up N NE of Houston, it has taken them many hours, and they are driving through small towns gobbling up all the gas that the locals in that area now need themselves to evacuate.

TXDOT has gotten donations from Dallas area fuel consortiums, from San Antonio area too so they can re-fuel some stations along the main evac routes.  They say fuel acquisition is really tight.  That the Katrina mess has made it all worse to boot.

There just isn't the local storage and supply to suddenly fuel millions of cars and trucks in a narrow time window.

The Mayor of Houston, Bill White, has contacted the Feds about aerial lift of fuel to get fuel to empty cars along the routes.  He said no word back from the Feds on that yet.  TXDOT is doing what they can with remaining trucks and personnel, to give stranded people a gallon or two to get them along/off the evac roads.  They say that many people have pitched in helping each other, that the routes are not impeded by stalled cars.  The next conference is at 7 PM, sounds like Houston/counties/TXDOT/State are trying to figure out more fuel relief on their own.  No time to wait.

The coordination and information from all levels of TX agencies looks super.

We heard from one of our kids this morning... evacuees all over, going through, etc.  Gas all gone.  Walmart out of most edibles.  Didn't ask if any jars of Pickled Pigs Feet were left  :p  That would be reeeaal desperate!
These towns are already loaded with Katrina evacuees from LA. 
Cell phones are useless, systems overloaded with all the people on.  Text messages seem to get through, though it may take an hour.  One advantage of low bit-rate packet communication, but not like you can try to locate a hotel room in Oklahoma via text!

I would have stayed put for 2 reasons:

1. I think there is a good chance it will not be nearly as bad as some think
(overkill based on Katrina/NO?)

2. I hate to have anyone telling me what to do.

JG
 
Filled up the gas tanks on both vehicles. Also bought 12.5 gallons extra, and put it in cans. Wanted more, but could not find any five-gallon cans. Everybody doing the same thing, I expect. If the refineries are shut down for a week or so, not only will be paying more, we could be OUT of gas. So, don't wanna be unprepared like the New Orleanians. Rather have some and not need it, than vice versa. I can drive 400+ miles on a full tank with the Cambry and 380# miles on full tank with the F-150. That and the extra ought to hold us until the refineries are back up and running.

I also have in-laws who live in Houston. They're in Austin, now. Took about 12 hours to make the drive.
 
My cousin's family is in Houston and they're safe in Fort Worth after a 10-hour drive last night. That's pretty fast compared to today's traffic I hear. Many friends of their family turned back and gave up on the evacuation, but since they were evacuating they didn't prepare to weather the storm, either, so my Houston family is worried.

Here in Indianapolis I filled the tank, bought a 5 gallon can & filled it and bought & installed a locking gas cap. I'm hoping that'll last me a week and a half; if gas problems get real severe I can probably stretch it to 3 or 4 weeks by only driving when and where necessary.

I'm flying to visit my D/FW family this weekend, and apparently I'll get a taste of Rita myself. At the worst point there were 75mph sustained winds forecast for Fort Worth, but that's changed since the storm weakened and veered right.

The flight there looks pretty wide open; I guess most people don't want to head that way.
 
More news:

The biggest evacuation in US History continues. Now estimated at about 2 million people.

All of the refineries on the Houston ship channel have been shut down, the first time ever that this has been done. A couple days ago they said the shut-down would be a hot-idle state, so after the big event, if an inspection looked OK, they would be coming up in a few days. In comparison, a cold shut-down would take weeks to restart.

The Texas National Guard, escorted by DPS (the TX state police) will be making the rounds across hundreds of miles of the evac routes to gas-up cars that ran out of gas with 5 gallons.  And they are working on refueling select gas stations along the route.

TX Air National guard evacuating the "they'll die if the're moved" cases from hospitals.  Heard the Mississippi ANG is helping too. Thanks Mississippians!

The media is starting to get into it now. More and more "experts" with no experience in anything, and no common sense are popping up.  Example: One idiot blamed the state of Texas for the lack of gasoline. 
Quote:  "I can't think of anything more horrendous than being in bumper to bumper traffic on a 98 degree day and running out of gas"  Huh? He must have lived a very sheltered life under mommys apron!  He needs to get out more.

Another one was wailing about the inadequate evacuation routes.  Yeah, I heard that the "inflate an interstate" kits had holes in them, and they had to be returned to Walmart...

Considering it's 2 million people, it's never been done before, the roads are the roads, and there are still 24 hours to go. I'd say its going well.

I didn't fill any cans up, didn't think of it.  Though I did fill a can up earlier in the week for the tractor, and haven't used it yet, so I guess that's my can.  From the sound of it, we may get lots to little of rain, too early to tell.  But sounds like the chances of high winds my way have dropped quite a bit.  I consider "high" as over 50 MPH.
 
Incidentally, can you imagine trying to move 1-2 million people in Europe anywhere? What would they take, the Metro? :D Remember there are 500,000 people who have fled Katrina, most still living somewhere else. This once again proves the the good ole USA (and Texas, BTW) can "get 'er done". Sure there's going to be problems (to wit, the exploding bus this morning), and sure there's going to be the whiners who will carp about anything that does go wrong. But, this a move of mammoth proportions, which I don't believe has ever been done, so fast. These people are being relocated, they are getting food, medicine, etc. Might be uncomfortable, but safe.
 
Eagle43 said:
Filled up the gas tanks on both vehicles.  Also bought 12.5 gallons extra, and put it  in cans.  Wanted more, but could not find any five-gallon cans.  Everybody doing the same thing, I expect.  If the refineries are shut down for a week or so, not only will be paying more, we could be OUT of gas.  So, don't wanna be unprepared like the New Orleanians.  Rather have some and not need it, than vice versa.  I can drive 400+ miles on a full tank with the Cambry and 380# miles on full tank with the F-150.  That and the extra ought to hold us until the refineries are back up and running.

I also have in-laws who live in Houston.  They're in Austin, now.  Took about 12 hours to make the drive.

Gas prices jumped here (Nothern Illinois) since yesterday, so I went back
into "Katrina" mode, filled a few cans and topped off the vehicles
(30 gal. tank on the truck ouch!)

A question, Last winter I went to Texas and found the biggest (on land)
oil rig I ever saw, drilling right next to a Methodist church. Now, there is
nothing unusual about that in Texas, but this thing was "huge", with
temp. housing and loads of equipment sitting around.
A month ago, I am back down and everything was gone, just a scar on the
earth where it stood. So.......dry hole? It must have cost a fortune to
set that up. Can't they tell ahead of time if there is something to drill for?
Or is it still just hit or miss? Somebody in oil country.................... educate me on this.

JG
 
Looks like the Galveston & Houston evac is over.  Anyone who wanted to get out has.  The counter-flowed interstates are being restored to two-way traffic from Houston working on out northwest and west.  Overnight, refueling companies that usually service businesses and commercial vehicles volunteered, with the help of their suppliers, and with police escort to individually refuel out of gas cars on I-45.  They are still doing it, working southward. Along with the TX NGuard, and Houston and Harris county handled the vehicles in their area.

The charter bus oxygen fire happened on I-45 in Wilmer, in southeastern Dallas county, over 200 miles in from the coast.  Nursing home residents that had been evac'd from a nursing home in Bellaire, just west edge of Houston.  The Mayor of Bellaire said that in Hurricane Allison, 80% of Bellaire was under water.  So evac was prudent. Oxygen is one of the most hazardous substances. For Engineers and science people, we have all burned things like steel in the presence of pure oxygen, substances that won't burn in the atmosphere roar with O.  Alas, life is not guaranteed.

Governor Rick Perry was just on TV, said that 2.5 to 2.7 million people[\b] have been evacuated in 24-48 hours.  Medical airlift evacs continue from Beaumont and a few other places.

Separately, have heard that getting military fixed-wing aircraft capable of evacing stretcher patients with support personnel was a tough point.  National Guard had the patients ready and waiting to go at the airports, no aircraft, waiting. Has improved. Too bad our National Guard didn't have the needed planes ourselves. The all-Texas efforts have done very well.

As Port Arthur and Beaumont area started to come more into focus, there are evac's going on there.  They have turned the few state hiways in the area to counter-flow. These are not limited-access interstates, these are regular roads. So the manpower to do it so there's no head-ons, and the risk, is high. One of the destination sites in East Texas was Lufkin, now Lufkin will be in the path of heavy rains and flooding, so plans are changing. The state disaster coordinator for the Port Arthur area was showing a map with 20 foot storm surge areas colored in.  Really bad. Also, there is some expectation that after Rita comes ashore, she may stall and dump something like 25 inches of rain in 16 hour period. So after the storm surge, it then gets followed with large area flooding.

Texas is a economically-poor state compared to many. But there has always been a Texas the Republic mindset. It is a major difference between LA and TX. The more that can be handled on a local and state level, the better. Federal means red tape, bureaucracy, slow movement, indecision.
 
Yes, Texas set a pretty good example, and I am proud. The evac is a pretty good model for the rest of the world to look at for future planning. (Not saying it was perfect, but a very good learning tool.)

However, it DOES help that the state has several large metropolitain areas including the largest inland concentration of population in the U.S. (D/FW Metroplex).

I'll pass on the inferred comparisons to NOLA and the comments about federal assistance. I've said my piece. Texas was likely better prepared to begin with, but having Katrina visit next door 3 weeks before Rita certainly has affected the situation.
 
It's better that it happens now than after they rebuild. Hopefully it will make people consider alternatives.
 
MRGALT2U said:
Gas prices jumped here (Nothern Illinois) since yesterday, so I went back
into "Katrina" mode, filled a few cans and topped off the vehicles
(30 gal. tank on the truck   ouch!) 

A question,  Last winter I went to Texas and found the biggest (on land)
oil rig I ever saw,  drilling right next to a Methodist church.  Now, there is
nothing unusual about that in Texas, but this thing was "huge", with
temp. housing and loads of equipment sitting around.
A month ago, I am back down and everything was gone, just a scar on the
earth where it stood.  So.......dry hole?  It must have cost a fortune to
set that up.  Can't they tell ahead of time if there is something to drill for?
Or is it still just hit or miss?  Somebody in oil country.................... educate me on this.

JG

What? Is this too tough? I'm serious (for once). Come on Texans;
what is the answer? Inquiring minds, etc.

JG
 
Oh, Father (clang, clang), please make that (clang clang) oil well next door dry up (clang clang) so that we can worship thee in peace.
 
MRGALT2U said:
What?  Is this too tough?  I'm serious (for once).  Come on Texans;
what is the answer?  Inquiring minds, etc.

JG

Well John, one thing is obvious - Methodist wasn't the right religion!  :D

No, really, all the analysis in the world of where oil might be is good for selecting a test site, but the final proof is in the drillin'.  Some possibilities: Dry or too low productivity, and was plugged;  Low productivity and was capped;  Looked good and was capped for inventory; Looked good and was capped till extraction equipment set up later.

Along HWY 82 in far North Texas are quite a few stripper wells with the walking beam (rocker arm) pump setups. To be economical, need at least a small field of these that can be piped to common field storage tanks. And get commercial AC power run to them. A lot of these run on timers, as the slow well inflow can't keep up with a continuous pumping rate.
A lot of these type of well setups are tucked all over the place.
 
Telly said:
Well John, one thing is obvious - Methodist wasn't the right religion!  :D

No, really, all the analysis in the world of where oil might be is good for selecting a test site, but the final proof is in the drillin'.  Some possibilities: Dry or too low productivity, and was plugged;  Low productivity and was capped;  Looked good and was capped for inventory; Looked good and was capped till extraction equipment set up later.

Along HWY 82 in far North Texas are quite a few stripper wells with the walking beam (rocker arm) pump setups. To be economical, need at least a small field of these that can be piped to common field storage tanks. And get commercial AC power run to them. A lot of these run on timers, as the slow well inflow can't keep up with a continuous pumping rate.
A lot of these type of well setups are tucked all over the place.

That's what we have in southern Illinois (rocker arm types). I've been all
over Texas and never saw a setup like this one. Whoever built it must have lost a fortune (can you spell tax deductions?).

Yeah, the Methodists might have put the hoo-doo on them. It looked pretty
odd, I will say that. BTW, I've been back and forth on 82 many many times
as it is the first east-west highway south of our condo.

JG
 
MRGALT2U said:
That's what we have in southern Illinois (rocker arm types).  I've been all
over Texas and never saw a setup like this one.  Whoever built it must have lost a fortune (can you spell tax deductions?). 

Yeah, the Methodists might have put the hoo-doo on them.  It looked pretty
odd, I will say that.  BTW, I've been back and forth on 82 many many times
as it is the first east-west highway south of our condo.

JG

John, what you described as being next to the church sounds like a typical drilling rig used these days. Drilling is usually 24/7 due to the expense of leasing the equipment.

I mentioned Hwy 82 since you have mentioned Lake Texoma before :)

A year or two ago there were drilling rigs on hilltops on each side of I-45 somewhere south of Fairfield. One on each side of the road, about a mile or so apart. Seemed funny to drill on a hilltop, but I guess if you are going to drill thousands of feet, what's 200 more? And it did give them a site that would never flood, with excellent drainage.
 
Well, Rita is over. The original track would have given us a tropical storm with rain and high winds at my house. But with the actual track, a different story. The clouds rolled in Friday about 5 PM, winds yesterday about 30 MPH constant, with gusts to 45 or so. Today, back to bright sunshine and resumed the hotter than normal temperatures.

Now 2.7 million people or more are going to gas up and stock up, and head home. More shortages ahead!

Yesterday the state along with the contractor moved around barriers on I-45 to get more lanes open southbound through the miles of construction area.
I-45 has been under reconstruction for at least the last 4 or 5 years. Also adding a lane to make it 3 lanes each way, rather than the previous 2 lanes each way. When its finally done all the way to outside of Houston, it'll be all worn out and time to start over again! But it is a big project, all those miles, and keeping traffic open through it.
 
Telly said:
John, what you described as being next to the church sounds like a typical drilling rig used these days.

It may be "typical" elsewhere, but not in our part of north Texas. I can't recall seeing a rig quite that enormous and I've been all over the state.
Maybe I wasn't paying attention, or maybe this one stood out because
of its location. I'll have to ask some of the locals when I go back down.
Must be a story connected with it and I am sure the Methodist church was happy
to see it go.

JG
 
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