Market direction for this coming week ?

[frayne]

In light of the crisis in the middle east, North Korea, G-8, crude prices, Iraq, etc., etc. what will the market do in the coming week(s).

 

[REWahoo]

In light of the crisis in the middle east, North Korea, G-8, crude prices, Iraq, etc., etc. what will the market do in the coming week(s).

Without question, it will go up and down. Or down and up.

These are the times that test your asset allocation.

 

[mathjak107]

since we all think down,,,up it goes

 

[d]

what will be the specific changes in "the middle east, North Korea, G-8, crude prices, Iraq, etc., etc" ? when we know that, we'll better be able to predict their effects on the market.

 

[Eagle43]

Wherever it goes, there I go. I've already bought my ticket on the Vanguard Index Vehicle! Can't jump off now!

 

[Leonidas]

Nobody else can predict the future either. They're all sitting out there wondering what everyone else is going to do on Monday morning and how they should react. It's what makes investing so interesting.

"OK, pork belly prices have been dropping all morning. So everybody's waiting for them to hit rock bottom so they can buy cheap. The people with pork belly contracts are thinking, 'Hey, we're losing all our money and Christmas is coming. I won't be able to buy my son the GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip. And my wife won't make love to me cos I ain't got no money.' They're panicking, screaming, 'Sell, sell.' They don't want to lose all their money. They are panicking right now. I can feel it. Look at them."

And, one of my other favorites from the same movie:

"Tell him the good part."

"The good part is that no matter whether our clients make money, or lose money, Duke & Duke get the commissions."

What's going to happen next week? As far as my crystal ball works all I see for sure is Isreal going into Lebanon and Gaza. The first is a risky move - Hezbollah is waiting on them and it will be a real scrap. The real question is what will Syria and Iran do. Will Iran pull it's oil off the market? That won't hurt us directly because the US has restricted Iranian oil imports, but it will be a shock to the world oil market which will in turn affect us. Will this be the exogenous shock that brings a major dip in the market? Too many questions that I can't answer - time for another cup of coffee.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I dont care.

Couple of years spending in low volatility stuff and the dividend checks are still going to show up whether it goes up or down.

 

[AltaRed]

No idea what it will do but I believe general trend is down through mid-term elections.  I plan to do nothing except watch for select buying opportunities over the next several months.  Currently ~35% cash, most of it in highly liquid form.

 

[maddythebeagle]

Currently ~35% cash, most of it in highly liquid form.

Scotch, whiskey, and vodka? dont forget your gold and ammo.........I am also in the camp that doesnt care..except for putting more cash to work... 8)

 

[Mwsinron]

Run for the hills wommins n chillen first!

 

[justin]

"The good part is that no matter whether our clients make money, or lose money, Duke & Duke get the commissions."[/i]

This was the favorite movie of my wife's former boss at the Mega I-bank. He watched it every day when he was home sick. No matter what happens to the market, they make money on every trade! Hey, it puts food on our table too!

On-topic: The market will be up and down. I think a lot of the worst case scenario was already priced into the markets by Friday. Kim Ding-Dong Ill is still crazy - not news. Unrest in the middle east - is this really news? Just slightly worse than usual. If Syria, Iran and other players start ganging up on Israel, then we might see a significant drop. Assuming this isn't the start of WW III, this will most likely be looked back upon as a "buying opportunity". In the meantime, I'll keep DCAing into my 401k and Vanguard index funds. But everyone else, feel free to sell. I don't mind if things go on sale while I'm buying.

 

[kcowan]

I expect a continued sell-off. Many people are sitting with trailing stop loss orders at 10% from the peak. Many of those have not yet kicked in. Apple has for sure, and IBM.

And the people like me who sold off between last August and March are still waiting before dribbling back in. Currently 67% cash and bonds. Would like to move that down to 60% in the next 12-18 months.

 

[brewer12345]

Definately will be volatile, but it is tough to guess the overall direction since there will be so much "news". CPI, PPI, Israel, Bernanke testifying, etc. I think that unless Syria and Iran start mixing it up with Israel (and get themselves nuked), you will see the market get used to the Lebanon mess. If that fades into the background, attention will be focused once more on the inflation figures and any hints dropped by the Fed. I think we get one more rate bump this year, and then it will become apparent that the economy has taken too many body blows and the Fed will need to pause/cut rates.

 

[ERD50]

what will be the specific changes in "the middle east, North Korea, G-8, crude prices, Iraq, etc., etc" ? when we know that, we'll better be able to predict their effects on the market.

Sorry, but I disagree. The way I look at it, 'when we know that' it is too late 'to predict their effects on the market.' Because, 'when we know that', the whole market knows that, and has already responded. The market is not going to politely wait for us to buy or sell, and then go up/down. It will happen in real time, before we can react.

Predictions require a crystal ball, or inside info that the 'market' does not have - hmmm, or luck?

-ERD50

 

[2B]

I believe (and hope) Iran is realizing they overplayed their hand.  As the sponsor of H&H, they wanted to stir up some stuff before their trip before the Security Council on their nukes.  Them having nukes is the real risk in my opinion.

As for retaliating with their oil, Iran sells oil but needs to import gasoline and other distillates.  If they shut off the oil, they will lose their distillates.  When all of their trucks stop in about a week, they may have some minor other problems.

One big thing occurred over the weekend that didn't seem to get much press.  The Arab League wouldn't support a unified condemnation of Israel.  They are clearly not going to blindly support Iran who they clearly see as the bigger theat to the region.

This too will pass.

 

[dmpi]

The market only cares about the price of oil. I think the conflict has already been priced into the oil market. Postive Profits reports will start to roll in.

Here's my prediction for the S&P 500 for the week:
M: +7 T: +3 W: -5 Th: +4 Fi: -1
For the week: +8

 

[justin]

Here's my prediction for the S&P 500 for the week:
M: +7 T: +3 W: -5 Th: +4 Fi: -1
For the week: +8

Percent? Points?

 

[wabmester]

Here's my prediction for the S&P 500 for the week:
M: +7 T: +3  W: -5  Th: +4  Fi: -1
For the week: +8

I calculate that your odds of even getting those signs right are 1 in 64.    Your odds of getting the numbers right (what are those, percentages?) are about 1 in a million.

It would be a cool trick if you can do it, though.  

 

[dmpi]

Percent?  Points?

Points

 

[d]

rather surprising lack of movement today!

 

[wabmester]

Yeah, I was disappointed.   But it promises to get more exciting later in the week:

• Tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. EST we get the Producer Price Index for June with the consensus looking for a 0.3% total rise and 0.2% core rise.
• Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. we get the Consumer Price Index for June with the consensus looking for a headline and core increase of 0.2%.
• Later Wednesday morning Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the first day of a his two-day Humphrey-Hawkins testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.
• The Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on the heels of PPI and CPI will set the tone for inflation/stagflation/deflation watching as the data will significantly influence the hawkish/dovish posture Bernanke will be able to present.

 
(from here)

 

[brewer12345]

Yeah, I think its all about the inflation data as Israel, etc. fade into the background. That and earnings.

 

[haha]

Yeah, I was disappointed. 

I don't understand- are you long volatility?

Ha

 

[wabmester]

I don't understand- are you long volatility?

Hey, it's not all about money.   I'm retired and easily amused.   The market is sort of the laugh track to the comedy of world events.   Or something. 

 

[haha]

Hey, it's not all about money.   

Ha, easy to say if you are a software mogul.

Ha