Yes, this is a good question. What do you think, Florida?I'm not even sure what the cloud's silver lining indicator is saying. Florida, does your personal situation reflect a down economy?
Indeed. Historically, first we see the stock market recover, then we see the economy bottom out a few months later, and then we see unemployment peak a few months after that.Employment is typically a trailing indicator of the economy. As such, I would expect it to recover after much of the rest of the economy gets back on its feet.
Anyone buying the economy is recovering
if so why?
Indeed, I think that will be the main factor as to whether we "double dip" into another recession or maintain a course to recovery. The economy can outpace jobs for a while -- maybe a few months -- but eventually if the jobs don't return, the fuel for economic growth peters out and we double-dip.It is. The numbers tell us it is. However, I have my doubts long term. If you do not create jobs for people there will be an issue.
One of the reasons unemployment tends to lag the economy is that many employers want to play it safe and be firmly convinced that the recovery has "staying power" before they start hiring again. They don't want to hire for an immediate need that could turn out to be short-term if the economy goes south again. Hiring and firing aren't cheap.
Although my crystal ball is notoriously unreliable when it comes to predictions, if you look at what has already happened it seems that the recovery may be underway.
(1) The market is recovering. The Dow is no longer in the 6000's and headed lower. Instead, the Dow seems pretty firmly set in the 9000's for now. Yes, that's up almost 50% compared with recent market lows.
(2) Housing sales are apparently picking up in many regions.
(3) Car sales are apparently recovering a little, too.
Unemployment does not seem to be recovering yet, unfortunately, but eventually I think it has to if the recession ends.
Yes, this is a good question. What do you think, Florida?
i just peeked at my investments and they sure are up from where they were just a few months ago. The houses in this area are selling well and have pretty much held there value. In fact I am beginning to see more building going on. I definitely buy that we are in recovery.
I am actually a bit happy about credit being tight since I think folks need to figure out how to live within their means.
So nobody is conerned about high inflation coming from the Fed printing all that $ that we don't have? I can only hope that you all are right but I am not counting on it yet until we cross that hurdle. Also credit is still very tight and that will keep things a bit depressed as well. I am actually a bit happy about credit being tight since I think folks need to figure out how to live within their means.
So nobody is conerned about high inflation coming from the Fed printing all that $ that we don't have? . . . Also credit is still very tight and that will keep things a bit depressed as well.
A funny thing happens when the government breaks the back of a cascading, deflationary, deleveraging, vicious-cycle . . . we find equilibrium at a higher level than we otherwise would.
Three cheers for the bailouts!!
Inflationary fed policy and "tight credit" are mutually exclusive. So you'll have to pick one to worry about.
Anyone buying the economy is recovering
if so why?
You guys are more optimistic than I, but let's hope they get it right.
..........but that doesn't stop me from worrying about them both at the same time. Are we going to see inflation for deflation for the next couple of quarters? Got me.