Would you now agree that there is a Real Estate slump???

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Considering the average college graduate today cannot balance their checkbook or explain their cell phone plan, its not a big surprise that some strange things happen when you give them a huge unsecured credit line that they barely need to make payments on.

 

[dex]

I remain concerned because--IMHO--we have two bubbles out there. Housing/sub-prime mortages is one, but the other is unsecured debt. I'm specifically thinking about credit card debt. I keep thinking about that TV commercial, where a middle-aged man, after describing his mounting debt to maintain his 'lifestyle,' plaintively cries, "somebody help me." I see this as a classic case in Chaos Theory, where an unsustainable situation abruptly undergoes a binary step-change, to a lower energy state ... without a pause in the middle.

I wish I was wrong.

I agree that there are many bubbles out there:
As you mention
Housing
Debt

As CFB mentions
Intellegence

I would add
Work content bubble - people doing simple minded work and getting paid a high salary - I worked in a large corp and saw what people did and how much they got paid.

Financial asset bubble - there is a lot of cash around the world chasing investments - when the cash spigot is turned off it might end - one spigot has been the war.

These bubbles can continue for awhile due to the growth of the population from 6.6 Billion to about 10 billion in 2050. Then again nature hates excess. Ususally these types of bubbles are reversed in a depression. I don't know what will stop it - your thoughts??

 

[Brat]

Well, what might impact both would be an epidemic. I recall a physician friend saying that biologically we were due for one in our kid's lifetimes 30 years ago. Hard to estimate the extent to which the human population would be reduced but it wouldn't take much to set back economic growth. In many ways it is not the death rate that will do that, but the human and economic energy consumed in trying to manage the contagion and caring for the sick

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

nature hates excess.

ever expanding universe

 

[dex]

ever expanding universe

/quote]

And the speed is increasing due to dark energy. So it is going to take longer for those aliens to get here.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

And the speed is increasing due to dark energy. So it is going to take longer for those aliens to get here.

no no no no no no. i was counting on them to buy the house. now's who's gonna get this housing market back on track? oh, i get it. aliens of the outer space variety.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

...and a vacuum is frequently better than some of the things nature decides to fill it with...

 

[Rich]

I'm watching the real estate situation closely, as my wife and I would like to purchase a winter place down south (probably south carolina). We have no debt, and aren't looking at the second home as an "investment." Still, one must be prudent and I've learned the hard way that a person should buy a home with an eye toward how "saleable" it will be in the future.

I have no desire to wait till the very bottom of the market, as I've missplaced my crystal ball. Yet I don't want to grossly overspend either. I suspect there is no good answer.

Rich

 

[eridanus]

The Shiller Dec 06 numbers are out.

San Diego lost 1.7% from Nov to Dec., San Fran lost .8%, and Miami gained .2%.

These are based on resale for SF housing. No condos or new housing are examined.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Homes are dropping as much as 2% a month for the last 10-12 months. Seems to be firming up and some realtor friends are reporting multiple offers and more buyers coming out. Sellers are a bit desperate though.

 

[dex]

With the warmer weather in Atlanta I'm seeing more people looking at homes and more under contract signs going up. The builders stopped or slowed down their building towards the end of last year. I now see it picking up again. The warning is that markets don't go straight up or down so ...

 

[eridanus]

The Shiller index on existing homes shows a decline for December. Here's the data for new homes in January.

-------
New home sales plunge

Annual pace, below 1 million, posts biggest monthly decline in 13 years; rising glut of homes for sale hits prices.

"New homes sold at an annual rate of 937,000, down 16.6 percent from the December reading of 1.1 million."

http://money.cnn.com/2007/02/28/news/economy/newhome_sales/index.htm?postversion=2007022811

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

possible good (or at least not so bad) news for florida from the university of florida's center for real estate studies.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Hopeful homebuyers in Florida should act now: The price is right as the state’s single-family residential housing market bottoms out, according to a University of Florida study released today.

“If you’re thinking of buying a house, there’s probably not much to be gained by holding out at this point,” said Wayne Archer, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. “It doesn’t look like prices are going to fall anymore.”

 

[dumpster56]

Lets take a fresh look almost a year later.

 

[honobob]

Lets take a fresh look almost a year later.

Newguy888, Been there, done that, got closed down! Damn N*z* goons!