Central California real estate housing values plummeting

[aja8888]

Some interesting reading (short article):

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/19/s...ces-plunge-30-from-crazy-peak-housing-bust-2/

Home prices for all of California are down, Southern California too is getting hit, even San Diego, but the Bay Area is the standout in terms of the steep and deep plunge in prices.

Sales of single-family houses plunged by 37% year-over-year in the Bay Area. But in Southern California, where price declines haven’t been that huge yet, sales collapsed by 48%. In all of California, sales plunged 44%, to 240,000 homes, just a hair higher than during the bottom of Housing Bust 1 in late 2007.

 

[Teacher Terry]

My kids are hoping that condos in Reno take a big hit but so far have only went down a small amount. They want to buy one but don’t want to overpay.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

This talks about sales, what about actual pricing? In our area sales are down but prices are stable. From what I can see South Orange County is a high as ever.

 

[aja8888]

This talks about sales, what about actual pricing? In our area sales are down but prices are stable. From what I can see South Orange County is a high as ever.

Yes, that's what the article is about...sales.

Realize the data is two to three months in the past as it takes that long to capture sales numbers.

I would imagine actual pricing data is hard to get and aggregate. The same size house can sell for much different prices based on upgrades, etc. But it is clear that the RE market is having indigestion and probably will get worse.

In my hood in TX, houses are selling for $175.00 sq. ft. which is an increase of $25 sq. ft. since 2020. And then there is the occasional one that sells for over $200 sq. ft. based on upgrades and a foolish buyer.

 

[MarieIG]

Good article. The Bay area prices look to be (roughly) back to pre-pandemic levels. My neighborhood vis-a-vis home sales dropped off much more quickly than California.

I have to wonder what the RE market will be (country-wide, not just California) in a year from now.

 

[cathy63]

This talks about sales, what about actual pricing? In our area sales are down but prices are stable. From what I can see South Orange County is a high as ever.

That's my experience too. We are in escrow selling our rental property in San Diego County after having it listed for just over 3 weeks which included the Christmas / New Year's holidays. We had multiple offers (though some were just silly), and got a well qualified buyer who's putting 50% down.

Our RE agent says that there are a lot fewer properties on the market right now than there had been and he thinks that benefitted us. Also, it's an old cliche, but still true that "location is everything" in Real Estate.

 

[Another Reader]

I follow a couple of submarkets in the greater Phoenix area. In the East Valley, particularly in Tempe, the lower priced inventory has disappeared. Even houses with carports, backing to thoroughfares, or with poor floorplans are now selling. Some of those properties have been on the market for well over 60 days.

Things at the low end are moving out in Goodyear, but not as rapidly. This area is more income constrained.

The lead farms have started back up. Getting two to eight calls a day. Most are from overseas. One local agent has been calling several times a day. She farms for other agents in her office. Finally blocked her after five calls in one day.

Not expecting the large decline I was hoping for...

ETA: Nothing for sale in my subdivision in Silly Valley... Five homes in the zip code, one pending.

 

[audreyh1]

This post and discussion belongs in the Is the real estate bubble bursting thread.
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/is-the-realestate-bubble-bursting-114490.html

 

[Fotodog]

I retired in January last year as a professional photographer in San Francisco. I spent 3 months getting my live/work condo ready to sell, which I used as my studio…new paint everywhere, new floors, etc. It looks great, with lots of positive comments from prospective buyers.

Unfortunately my timing could not have been worse. The red-hot real estate market in the Bay Area dropped like a rock, with the poor economy and rising interest rates leading the way. I have not had a single offer since March, even with 2 price reductions. We pulled my listing down in December, and will re-list it this week so it will show as a new listing.

I had planned on using my equity as a cash fund to ride out the downturn in the stock market. But if it doesn’t sell in a couple of months, I’m resigned to the fact that I will need to become a landlord for a year or 2. And the politics of SF make this less than desirable, with horror stories of tenants not paying rent and refusing to leave, as city officials stand idly by.

 

[tutan]

Some interesting reading (short article):

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/19/s...ces-plunge-30-from-crazy-peak-housing-bust-2/

This article is rather about the SF Bay Area. Central California is mainly Fresno, Tulare, Madera, etc., which are more associated with agriculture than high tech. House prices there might not have had the same rise and falls.

 

[Another Reader]

This post and discussion belongs in the Is the real estate bubble bursting thread.
https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/is-the-realestate-bubble-bursting-114490.html

Central California cities generally correlate with the two big markets. More people relocate there when Bay Area and SoCal jump, and they crash first, when prices come down in the more desired areas. I had a plumbing and a roof job done over here, and the workers mostly came from Los Banos in the Central Valley.

 

[oiseux]

I retired in January last year as a professional photographer in San Francisco. I spent 3 months getting my live/work condo ready to sell, which I used as my studio…new paint everywhere, new floors, etc. It looks great, with lots of positive comments from prospective buyers.

Unfortunately my timing could not have been worse. The red-hot real estate market in the Bay Area dropped like a rock, with the poor economy and rising interest rates leading the way. I have not had a single offer since March, even with 2 price reductions. We pulled my listing down in December, and will re-list it this week so it will show as a new listing.

I had planned on using my equity as a cash fund to ride out the downturn in the stock market. But if it doesn’t sell in a couple of months, I’m resigned to the fact that I will need to become a landlord for a year or 2. And the politics of SF make this less than desirable, with horror stories of tenants not paying rent and refusing to leave, as city officials stand idly by.

Sorry to hear that, we own a loft in South Beach that we turned into a rental a few years back. It is an oversupplied area. We've had good luck with renters in the area, most of the turnovers are due to the rotating stock of professionals. With the rising interest rates and the job cuts coming, it may get a bit worse before it gets better. However, there is a return to office trend that may help.

 

[tryan]

If the past is any judge of the future ... the time between top and bottom will be 4-5 years. Think 1989 - 1994 or 2008 - 2012 now its 2022 - 2026/2027.

Results in your hood may vary.

 

[Aiming_4_55]

If the past is any judge of the future ... the time between top and bottom will be 4-5 years. Think 1989 - 1994 or 2008 - 2012 now its 2022 - 2026/2027.

Results in your hood may vary.

We play with the idea of retirement in SoCal or San Diego area, so if this "top and bottom" cycle happens, buying near the bottom in 2024 - 2025 would be ideal. I'm in OMY so just riding out until I'm personally ready.

 

[Drake3287]

If the past is any judge of the future ... the time between top and bottom will be 4-5 years. Think 1989 - 1994 or 2008 - 2012 now its 2022 - 2026/2027.

Results in your hood may vary.

Totally agree. I'm sure my Sonoma/Napa area home has lost $100k in value but it'll be up 200k in a couple of years. Pretty safe bet.