2007 Recession was Over June 2009

[audreyh1]

The National Bureau of Economic Research has determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. That trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007, and the beginning of a new expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

I know many folks have felt that the recession continues, but the NBER finally confirmed that it did indeed end early summer 2009 - well over a year ago.

Audrey

 

[W2R]

I can accept that. Still, the high unemployment figures are extremely distressing, whatever the cause.

 

[ziggy29]

The technical definition of a recession may well be past us, but as long as the jobs aren't coming back, few people will call it a "recovery."

 

[HFWR]

The National Bureau of Economic Research has determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. That trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007, and the beginning of a new expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

I know many folks have felt that the recession continues, but the NBER finally confirmed that it did indeed end early summer 2009 - well over a year ago.

Audrey

It is an advantage for some to keep the masses roused with talk of unending recession, unemployment, deficits...

I can accept that. Still, the high unemployment figures are extremely distressing, whatever the cause.

The technical definition of a recession may well be past us, but as long as the jobs aren't coming back, few people will call it a "recovery."

The new "new"... Employment is a "lagging indicator", if that's any consolation...

 

[ziggy29]

The new "new"... Employment is a "lagging indicator", if that's any consolation...

This is true, but I also suspect many folks, myself included, just don't see a significant uptick in employment for at least the next 2-3 years. There just isn't demand and too much deflationary pressure. High unemployment will just keep feeding wage contraction as employers take advantage of high unemployment to keep lowering the bar on new offers. The more desperate job seekers get, the more employers can low-ball them.

 

[FinanceDude]

The National Bureau of Economic Research has determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. That trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007, and the beginning of a new expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

I know many folks have felt that the recession continues, but the NBER finally confirmed that it did indeed end early summer 2009 - well over a year ago.

Audrey

If you believe that, I have some nice swampland to sell ya..........

 

[RonBoyd]

Oh! Please don't let this degenerate into a "political" thread... it has the potential to be useful.

 

[ziggy29]

Oh! Please don't let this degenerate into a "political" thread... it has the potential to be useful.

Huh? I don't see any politics in here....

 

[HFWR]

"Did they get you to trade, your heroes for ghost? Hot ashes for trees? Hot air for a cool breeze? Cold comfort for change?"

Waters, Gilmour

 

[RonBoyd]

Huh? I don't see any politics in here....

Call it a preemptive strike.

 

[FinanceDude]

Double-dip anyone?

 

[dex]

This is true, but I also suspect many folks, myself included, just don't see a significant uptick in employment for at least the next 2-3 years. There just isn't demand and too much deflationary pressure. High unemployment will just keep feeding wage contraction as employers take advantage of high unemployment to keep lowering the bar on new offers. The more desperate job seekers get, the more employers can low-ball them.

Jobless rates seen high for many more years | Reuters
2013

 

[dex]

Oh! Please don't let this degenerate into a "political" thread... it has the potential to be useful.

Only politics I can see is that the party in power in 2013/4 will get credit for the uptrend. See above post.

 

[ziggy29]

Only politics I can see is that the party in power in 2013/4 will get credit for the uptrend. See above post.

Uptrend? That assumes there will be a significant uptrend, at least for the masses. The GDP can say what it wants with respect to being "up." The average American, the endangered middle class, knows what it's feeling in terms of unemployment, job insecurity, stagnant or cut wages, decreasing benefits and "biflation."

Until the middle class starts seeing and feeling the effects of a "recovery" it's not going to be one for them.

 

[RonBoyd]

Until the middle class starts seeing and feeling the effects of a "recovery" it's not going to be one for them.

A Recovery’s Long Odds

With those coping mechanisms now exhausted, it’s painfully obvious that the economy has failed working Americans.
There was plenty of growth, but the economic benefits went overwhelmingly — and unfairly — to those already at the top. ...

The richest one-tenth of 1 percent, representing 130,000 households, took in more than 11 percent of total income in 2007.

That does not leave enough spending power with the rest of the population to sustain a flourishing economy.

With so much of the middle class and the rest of working America tapped out, there is not enough consumer demand for the goods and services that the U.S. economy is capable of producing. Without that demand, there are precious few prospects for a robust recovery.

 

[dex]

Uptrend? That assumes there will be a significant uptrend, at least for the masses.

You have to link the two posts - the news article mentions the unemployment rate (not GDP) will remain high until 2013 and then improve. So as it usually goes, the political party in power at the time will take credit for the improvement


Here is another article.
US employment will reach pre-crisis level only in 2013: OECD - International Business Times

 

[MichaelB]

It’s a recovery and our economy is in “stable state, growing slowly. Like Melvin Udall, we now have to deal with :

“What if this is as good as it gets?

As to FinanceDude's question

Double-dip anyone?

We’re already over a year into the recovery. The next recession will be a new one, although we can debtate the semantics of this forever. To be fair, ECRI still says there is a 50% chance of a relapse before year end.

 

[FinanceDude]

It’s a recovery and our economy is in “stable state, growing slowly. Like Melvin Udall, we now have to deal with : As to FinanceDude's question

We’re already over a year into the recovery. The next recession will be a new one, although we can debtate the semantics of this forever. To be fair, ECRI still says there is a 50% chance of a relapse before year end.

Should there not be job growth coming out of a recession? I don't call almost 10% unemployment a "recovery"...........

 

[MichaelB]

Should there not be job growth coming out of a recession? I don't call almost 10% unemployment a "recovery"...........

Problem is, our "steady state" or equilibrium point is disappointing but sustainable. It is likely to continue like this until some external force changes the slope. Could be a large increase in spending, promoting faster growth and employment - or a large decrease in spending, slipping back into recession. Nothing being discussed in DC today will have any impact.

 

[LARS]

The National Bureau of Economic Research has determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. That trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007, and the beginning of a new expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

I know many folks have felt that the recession continues, but the NBER finally confirmed that it did indeed end early summer 2009 - well over a year ago.

Audrey

Just in time to annouce the next recession...

 

[HFWR]

Should there not be job growth coming out of a recession? I don't call almost 10% unemployment a "recovery"...........

Yeah, not exactly. Trouble is, construction employment was a big driver before the SHTF, and "those jobs are going, boys, and they ain't coming back...".

IOW, those were artificial jobs, created by easy money.

 

[obgyn65]

Hello W2R - Well I am not an economist but in my view, letting Lehman collapse (politics aside) was probably a mistake. As a consequence, many investors and entrepreneurs have lost much more than money - they have lost confidence in our financial system. So why would they chose to hire ?

I can accept that. Still, the high unemployment figures are extremely distressing, whatever the cause.

 

[martyp]

Posted on the NBER website:

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.

In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.



Note the second paragraph. They are not saying the economy is good.

 

[audreyh1]

Note the second paragraph. They are not saying the economy is good.

I don't think anyone said they were. They are just telling us that the last recession is over, and when it ended. That's all NBER does - identify beginnings and endings of expansions and contractions.

Just because we have a sluggish economy and sub-optimal growth, doesn't mean we are in a recession. Just because we have come out of a recession, doesn't mean the expansion can't be very, very slow.

It was a deep and prolonged recession. A huge number people were laid off. The financial system was shook up badly. It's no wonder that confidence is low and recovery is very slow.

Audrey

 

[FinanceDude]

In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion. Note the second paragraph. They are not saying the economy is good.

I think it is all a political move........