2018 YTD investment performance thread

[youbet]

Or they don't wish to share on this site, when others are doing better. Nothing wrong with that, but also part of human behavior.

A big part of the overstating of performance is that many folks don't include everything in the calculation. Perhaps one brokerage has a nifty tool which gives daily performance reports, so they use that. They omit cash stashes, bux they tied up in an annuity, another brokerage which is holding some lower performing funds, etc.

I do agree, it seems strange to hear so many reports of outperforming the market on a forum which largely supports broad based index funds which reflect the markets.

It's all interesting to read, but take the reports with a grain of salt unless the holdings generating the well above market results are clearly defined.

 

[Happyras]

A big part of the overstating of performance is that many folks don't include everything in the calculation. Perhaps one brokerage has a nifty tool which gives daily performance reports, so they use that. They omit cash stashes, bux they tied up in an annuity, another brokerage which is holding some lower performing funds, etc.

I do agree, it seems strange to hear so many reports of outperforming the market on a forum which largely supports broad based index funds which reflect the markets.

It's all interesting to read, but take the reports with a grain of salt unless the holdings generating the well above market results are clearly defined.

+1
I track and can look up several index portfolios (you can too with https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/)
It makes no sense to me that so many are posting better than S&P returns as I am doing OK for one with a early allocation to bonds to start the year. July 31st YTD 2.64% all accounts.

If I look only at one of my accounts that has 4 index funds with S&P 500, Small cap, Mid cap and total international stock that YTD is only 3.65% (no bonds, 1% cash). You would have to be very astute to know what funds/stocks to buy and hold to beat the total S&P this year. Obviously these index funds were not the choice to hold.

I was under the impression most folks here were more balanced with International and Bonds, but to get better than 3.65% as of July 31, you would have to be playing some trades or high risk funds in the right sectors or all in on the S&P to ride, and have stayed away from bonds/funds and international.

 

[Dtail]

+1
I track and can look up several index portfolios (you can too with https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/)
It makes no sense to me that so many are posting better than S&P returns as I am doing OK for one with a early allocation to bonds to start the year. July 31st YTD 2.64% all accounts.

If I look only at one of my accounts that has 4 index funds with S&P 500, Small cap, Mid cap and total international stock that YTD is only 3.65% (no bonds, 1% cash). You would have to be very astute to know what funds/stocks to buy and hold to beat the total S&P this year. Obviously these index funds were not the choice to hold.

I was under the impression most folks here were more balanced with International and Bonds, but to get better than 3.65% as of July 31, you would have to be playing some trades or high risk funds in the right sectors or all in on the S&P to ride, and have stayed away from bonds/funds and international.

Had bond funds and still have Intl and so below 3% YTD.

 

[HI Bill]

It makes no sense to me that so many are posting better than S&P returns ...
I was under the impression most folks here were more balanced with International and Bonds, but to get better than 3.65% as of July 31, you would have to be playing some trades or high risk funds in the right sectors or all in on the S&P to ride, and have stayed away from bonds/funds and international.

Many folks here seem to have AA that are more stock-oriented than the traditional stock-bond-cash mix. I'm at 89% equities (only a few % international), and ~6% cash and 5% bonds (I'm with Jack Bogle on domestic vs. international).

Everyone has different investing styles and risk toleranaces...so they have different returns.

Some 'players' are obviously buying individual stocks and trying to time the market; one board participant claimed a 95% return, YTD!!!

 

[Winemaker]

3.24 YTD, 9.27% 1 year. 8/7/18

 

[NW-Bound]

I am no indexer. Not now, and never was. Individual stocks, yes. Sector play, yes. Lots of trade, yes.

Just now Quicken tells me my total trading cost YTD is $1269.65 to be exact. How many trades? I have to sit down to add them up, but that's a bit of work. Nowadays, I trade mostly in my Merrill Edge accounts, where stock and ETF trades are free, and option trades are usually $3.30 each. I try to set the strike price of the options so that they expire worthless, but I do get a few assignments. When that happens, it costs me another $7 each.

Anyway, I have made a few hundred trades so far, and there are still a few months left in the year.

Yep, it takes a bit of work to generate 5.1% return YTD with 60-70% stock AA and the rest in cash.

Dunno about 95% YTD return. I guess everything is possible including huge losses, if one takes on more risk.


PS. Regarding sector concentration, I try to stay somewhat diversified. Some MFs that are concentrated in large growth stocks do well this year. Quite a few of them get 10-12% YTD. Makes my 5.1% look puny. But then, I stay more diversified, plus hold a lot of cash for safety, so cannot complain.

 

[Just_Steve]

Personal Performance 01/01/2018 - 08/07/2018 Increase 5.65%
Personal Performance 08/07/2017 - 08/07/2018 Increase 10.88%
Since election day 2016 increase 18.46%

Not bad.

 

[Just_Steve]

Double post.

 

[target2019]

Yes, Shankar Vehantham had an article on Hidden Brain about this, a bias towards positive results. I think it's not so much that people are fudging their reports, but when things are down they tend to not look, not wanting to know. Human nature.

https://www.npr.org/series/423302056/hidden-brain
And wiki article:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shankar_Vedantam
Could not find anything specific, but worthy of a listen or read.

 

[Freedom56]

With my large position in Centurylink, Qwest, U S West bonds, I should hit double digit returns on my bond portfolio this year current trends continue. The 7.5% 2024 notes that I bought in December 2017 for 96.55 are trading over $107 today. It appears like Jeff Storey and Sunit Patel are turning things around like they did at Level 3. I hope they continue the trend.

 

[Dtail]

With my large position in Centurylink, Qwest, U S West bonds, I should hit double digit returns on my bond portfolio this year current trends continue. The 7.5% 2024 notes that I bought in December 2017 for 96.55 are trading over $107 today. It appears like Jeff Storey and Sunit Patel are turning things around like they did at Level 3. I hope they continue the trend.

Hey Freedom56 - do you typically trade your bonds or hold them to maturity?
Continuing to research individual corp/muni bonds, but haven't pulled the trigger and looking to hold to maturity strategy wise.

 

[NYEXPAT]

+16.36 as of July 31st. Currently 20/5/75

My results were comprised of 72 RT over the past 7 months. My core individual stocks represent about 20% and are DIV payers and Chinese stocks. Majority of trades involved moving amongst sectors in the S&P, Owning the S&P outright and on several occasions owning the DJIA outright when it is lagging the S&P.

 

[youbet]

My results were comprised of 72 RT over the past 7 months. My core individual stocks represent about 20% and are DIV payers and Chinese stocks. Majority of trades involved moving amongst sectors in the S&P, Owning the S&P outright and on several occasions owning the DJIA outright when it is lagging the S&P.

Is the 16%+ the return on your entire investment portfolio (including the large percentage of cash), or is it the return on the 20% equity?

 

[NYEXPAT]

Is the 16%+ the return on your entire investment portfolio (including the large percentage of cash), or is it the return on the 20% equity?

This is calculated on my entire investment portfolio Stocks/T'Bills/Cash. In the last 9 days my AA has changed to 30/10/70 as I have moved 10% of my cash into the Banking sector.

 

[ownyourfuture]

IRA +5.22%
Taxable Account -0.99%
401-K +4.70%

Disclosure: The taxable account is about 15 times more than my IRA, & about 2.5 times more than my 401(k)
So if I took the time to add them all up, It might be breakeven.

 

[Freedom56]

Hey Freedom56 - do you typically trade your bonds or hold them to maturity?
Continuing to research individual corp/muni bonds, but haven't pulled the trigger and looking to hold to maturity strategy wise.

Typically hold to maturity unless it was a lower coupon bond/note purchased at a significant discount to par and approached par. For example I purchased some Seagate technology 2027 notes a while ago for $84 and sold them at $100.6 about 8 months later. In the case of this particular Centurylink note, with a 7.5% coupon and YTM of over 8%, I'm holding to maturity unless the business picture changes.

 

[pompanobeach]

+1

I track and can look up several index portfolios (you can too with https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/)

It makes no sense to me that so many are posting better than S&P returns as I am doing OK for one with a early allocation to bonds to start the year. July 31st YTD 2.64% all accounts.



If I look only at one of my accounts that has 4 index funds with S&P 500, Small cap, Mid cap and total international stock that YTD is only 3.65% (no bonds, 1% cash). You would have to be very astute to know what funds/stocks to buy and hold to beat the total S&P this year. Obviously these index funds were not the choice to hold.



I was under the impression most folks here were more balanced with International and Bonds, but to get better than 3.65% as of July 31, you would have to be playing some trades or high risk funds in the right sectors or all in on the S&P to ride, and have stayed away from bonds/funds and international.

As i stated recently, i am currently at 14.89%. I have mostly large cap growth funds with heavy tech. One in particular us the Wells Fargo Premier Growth Fund blast year I ended with 24% including fees. I have not held any bond funds in the last three years. This is very unconventional being so close to retirement, however I do have a significant pension i will get and if I had to I could work part time as well. I am going very aggressive purposely. I watch the fund every day. Im in the fund one day, I am out a little the next, I’m back in. I buy dips, etc.

 

[RobbieB]

My FA manages 70 to 80 large cap dividend stocks, I own no funds or etfs. All my dividends are transferred to my checking account and not reinvested so my return would be even greater if I didn't just blow the dough.

He beats the S&P 500 consistently including his 1% AUM fee.

 

[Dtail]

Typically hold to maturity unless it was a lower coupon bond/note purchased at a significant discount to par and approached par. For example I purchased some Seagate technology 2027 notes a while ago for $84 and sold them at $100.6 about 8 months later. In the case of this particular Centurylink note, with a 7.5% coupon and YTM of over 8%, I'm holding to maturity unless the business picture changes.

OK thanks.

 

[redduck]

On another thread, an old friend of mine asked how my very own dividend portfolio was doing. OK, old friend, here is how it is doing as of this very day (8-23-18). It is up 2.49% YTD. This month's benchmark is Wellington Admiral which is up 2.98% Luckily for me I also own this Wellington in another account.

The 2.49% includes all that I have in this particular portfolio--which includes cash and some CD's. But, I'm going to try to just follow my Dividend Stocks to see how they are doing. I have the feeling that I'm not doing so well. That coupled with ER50's point of view and clear explanations that there is nothing special about Dividend Stocks (and probably more so they way I am doing them), it seems that perhaps I've taken up an expensive hobby.

 

[Looking4Ward]

According to Vanguard for my portfolio:

Wellesley Admiral: -.09%
Wellington Admiral: 2.22%
Health Care Admiral: 7.43%
Dividend Growth Fund: 6.12%

My entire portfolio: 3.4%

I'm hoping for a Santa Claus rally in a few months.

 

[Ed B]

Up 5.14% YTD

I did a lot of juggling of funds when I retired June 1 so posting my current portfolio wouldn't be of any value.

 

[Sanstar]

I haven’t posted on a YTD thread before so here goes my first attempt:

VWIAX -.09
FUSVX 6.44
FSDAX 10.91
FCTX 11.65

With the addition of a chunk in the FZDXX MM fund, and using the YTD calculator posted earlier, the 2018 increase so far is 9.77%.

 

[marko]

I've been up about 3% YTD with a calculated projection of about 5% for the year, based on the year's performance. Because of January's high and the subsequent slow down, those numbers may be skewed to the low side.

Yesterday (8/27) brought me back to where I should be at this time on a 6% projected run.

I did a check on my last 6 weeks average performance and if I run those numbers, I'm looking at just under 8% for the year--should things continue. Which is where I usually land.

My point is that at least for me, things seem to have quietly ramped up over the past several weeks despite a lackluster spring/summer

 

[sengsational]

I've been up about 3% YTD with a calculated projection of about 5% for the year, based on the year's performance.

I never bother to project out where I might be in the future with my portfolio; that's up to the whims of the market. I figure there's no reason to fret over not hitting the projection or celebrate beating the projection since it was based on some arbitrary time span and mr. market's arbitrary mood at the time.

I guess I should say "over short spans, like a year". Of course I'm counting on the market doing generally what it's been doing, but not looking at anything shorter than a decade or so.