Independent
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Oct 28, 2006
- Messages
- 4,629
I think the breakeven analysis is very limited at best if it only includes SS payouts because it ignores the return on the investments that were not withdrawn by those early retirees that do not have a pension or other sources of income to cover the age 62-70 gap. The simple attached spreadsheet shows that there is effectively no break-even point with returns in the 5-7% range. (it ignores effects of taxes)
I agree that you should include investment returns.
I downloaded your spreadsheet and noticed all the red in column K, even for very modest investment returns.
I did a little experimenting. When I set the investment return (H3) to zero, I expected column M to go to zero. It didn't.
Then I tried setting both B3 and H3 to zero. In this case, at age 70 (row 14), it appears that waiting is $285,320 worse than starting at 62. But, only $143,948 of SS benefits have been paid. I think you're double counting the first 8 years of SS benefits.