we had this posted under firecalc support, but perhaps it is better suited to this topic.
We are looking at two scenarios, but would like more pairs of eyes to offer input.
first scenario is
need 74k for expenses (including taxes)
Have 860k in all investments (70/30 split)
we are currently 55, retire in 2008
retirement period is 26 years, one of pre-retire and 25 of retirement (til 80)
pension starts in 2008 at 20k, non-cola
SS at 62 of 17880 and 16452 today's dollars
result is 91.8% success chance (no bernicke, no 95% esrbob rule)
Here is link to scenario 1 using firecalc: http://firecalc.com/calc-research.p...ix5=+40+++&mix6=+10+++&mix7=+15+++&mix8=+5+++
Second scenario is a variation of the "buckets of money" theme which basically says you'll pull out some money up front, put in cash, CDs, money market, etc. and use that for first x years.
need 74k for expenses (including taxes)
have 160k for first bucket at 5.5% will last 3.2 years (at 3% inflation 4500/month)
have 100k for second bucket at 12% (BIL deal) will last 2.8 years (at 3% inflation 4500/month)
(not included in firecalc, calculated elsewhere, these two cash buckets will cover period of 2008 to 2013)
have 600k in investments (70/30)
retirement starts in 2014 in firecalc (instead of 2008 because buckets cover first 6 yrs)
pension starts in 2008 at 20k, non-cola
SS at 62 of 17880 and 16452 today's dollars
results is 99.1% success chance
Here is link to second scenario: http://firecalc.com/calc-research.p...ix5=+40+++&mix6=+10+++&mix7=+15+++&mix8=+5+++
I would have guessed that the chance of success would have been the opposite, greater chance of success in the all investment scenario and less chance of success in the "bucket" scenario, just because the money has a much greater chance of growing and thus being available for longer periods of withdrawal. Maybe it is because of the reduced number of years to be pulling from investments, but there is also a much smaller investment portfolio for the reduced years.
Any analysis, logic, ponderings about why this turns out this way would be useful to us. We're trying to insure we do this correctly and that we understand what we are seeing.
aggie and txdakini
We are looking at two scenarios, but would like more pairs of eyes to offer input.
first scenario is
need 74k for expenses (including taxes)
Have 860k in all investments (70/30 split)
we are currently 55, retire in 2008
retirement period is 26 years, one of pre-retire and 25 of retirement (til 80)
pension starts in 2008 at 20k, non-cola
SS at 62 of 17880 and 16452 today's dollars
result is 91.8% success chance (no bernicke, no 95% esrbob rule)
Here is link to scenario 1 using firecalc: http://firecalc.com/calc-research.p...ix5=+40+++&mix6=+10+++&mix7=+15+++&mix8=+5+++
Second scenario is a variation of the "buckets of money" theme which basically says you'll pull out some money up front, put in cash, CDs, money market, etc. and use that for first x years.
need 74k for expenses (including taxes)
have 160k for first bucket at 5.5% will last 3.2 years (at 3% inflation 4500/month)
have 100k for second bucket at 12% (BIL deal) will last 2.8 years (at 3% inflation 4500/month)
(not included in firecalc, calculated elsewhere, these two cash buckets will cover period of 2008 to 2013)
have 600k in investments (70/30)
retirement starts in 2014 in firecalc (instead of 2008 because buckets cover first 6 yrs)
pension starts in 2008 at 20k, non-cola
SS at 62 of 17880 and 16452 today's dollars
results is 99.1% success chance
Here is link to second scenario: http://firecalc.com/calc-research.p...ix5=+40+++&mix6=+10+++&mix7=+15+++&mix8=+5+++
I would have guessed that the chance of success would have been the opposite, greater chance of success in the all investment scenario and less chance of success in the "bucket" scenario, just because the money has a much greater chance of growing and thus being available for longer periods of withdrawal. Maybe it is because of the reduced number of years to be pulling from investments, but there is also a much smaller investment portfolio for the reduced years.
Any analysis, logic, ponderings about why this turns out this way would be useful to us. We're trying to insure we do this correctly and that we understand what we are seeing.
aggie and txdakini