marko
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2011
- Messages
- 8,427
Yes it does, but how it takes those into account is important. It might just use a rolling average of historical data or it might use a Monte Carlo method to "randomize" the returns. Pfau's latest paper uses current bond and equity market data to estimate baseline returns and then applies a statistical variation derived from historical data.
Yes, but we shouldn't adjust our SWRs based on current/assumed short-term market performance--in either direction.