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Old 03-06-2008, 10:38 AM   #61
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My post was about the trap of extrapolating the past into the future. Eighteen fat years is rarely followed by another 18 fat years.
Right....... But, recently we did see 9 fat years followed by 9 fat years!
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Old 03-06-2008, 11:45 AM   #62
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but I don't expect to live another century either. World population peaks sometime around midcentury so that can be expected to lower growth. Would you rather live in the future or in the past though? Growth is good, but so are higher living standards. By then we may have gone interplanetary if not interstellar. On the other hand, some things we take for granted now will probably seem like real luxuries in the future.
I saw a prediction recently that if you can live another 50 years, you'll be able to live forever due to advances in medical technology. Where's that stemcell research when we need it?
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Old 03-06-2008, 12:02 PM   #63
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I saw a prediction recently that if you can live another 50 years, you'll be able to live forever due to advances in medical technology.
I saw a prediction in 1965 that by the year 2000, the average middle class breadwinner would be flying his own personal airplane to work every day. Automobiles would be a thing of the past. We would all have hangars in the back yard and common runways for the neighborhood.

Not to say that there aren't neighborhoods like this -- I know there are, but I think most of us still do commute by car.

Oh, drat! This is another off topic post. The older I get, the more I do it. Sorry.
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Old 03-06-2008, 01:08 PM   #64
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Sorry, I don't know what to do with your post. It is so laced with cynicism that I don't quite understand what point you are trying to make.

I was just ranting. I am in a bad mood after spending the weekend listening to a couple of boomers whining about their situation. First, my FIL is hitting us for big time money to take care of a few "mistakes". Then, my mom was complaining that inflation was eating through her social security check and that life was becoming tough (meaning she might need "help"). Coming from the woman who just bought new sofas to replace a perfectly good 5 year old sectional, but the color did not suit anymore, you see... When I told her that at least she was lucky to get SS, and that I probably will not be so lucky, her answer was just: So what? I am just sick and tired of it right now.
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Old 03-06-2008, 01:18 PM   #65
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The evidence is that historically "reversion to the mean" has always happenned. If you look at logarithmic graphs of stock indexes over many decades, they always approximate straight lines. You never see cases where the line changes slope or doglegs. Over the long term (multiple decades).

Over the short term when you look year by year it's nowhere near a straight line, so I wouldn't say "Three fat years is rarely followed by another three fat years".
Given enough time, doesn't it always have to "revert to the mean," by definition? If not, there would be no mean. And I don't mean to sound mean by saying that.
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Old 03-06-2008, 01:22 PM   #66
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Oh, drat! This is another off topic post. The older I get, the more I do it. Sorry.
I predict that by 2065 there will be a cure for that.
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Old 03-06-2008, 01:59 PM   #67
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I predict that by 2065 there will be a cure for that.
There will be in my case! Unless I live to 117, that is.
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Old 03-06-2008, 03:36 PM   #68
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And I'll be a relative youngster of 111...
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Old 03-06-2008, 04:40 PM   #69
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Not to say that there aren't neighborhoods like this -- I know there are
Yep, next town over from me is basically a small airstrip with a bunch of houses surrounding it, all with hangers for garages and wide taxiways between the homes and the airstrip. Pretty funny to drive through. Trippy wide streets so two planes can taxi past each other at the same time.
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Old 03-06-2008, 04:59 PM   #70
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After the last few days performance, I'm not so sure Buffett didn't mean 'Don't expect returns over -7% over the next century'. This crap is getting old.
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Old 03-06-2008, 05:30 PM   #71
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After the last few days performance, I'm not so sure Buffett didn't mean 'Don't expect returns over -7% over the next century'. This crap is getting old.
You can say that again. I'm struck by how many stocks have declined to 35-50 of their recent highs. This is pretty extreme. As far as I can tell these stocks are not hopeless or anywhere near so. The averages are masking a lot of very profound drops in smaller or more obscure stocks- especially anything financial.

In the past it has usually paid to be a buyer in these circumstances, but it seems easy to lose another 10% in a day like today, so one has to have to have conviction.

Wow. I just looked at some of today's results. Incredible! Fannie down 10%, Freddie down 7%. NLY down 18%. And NLY has zero credit risk, all agency paper. What they do have, apparently in common with the whole wide world, is funding risk. A good chance to get stinking rich, or get clobbered in recaps.

I sold a well-appreciated LT natural gas stock today to give me some spare cash beyond what I want to keep for emergencies. There will be some very impressive rallies quite soon, regardless of the ulitimate outcome of this stuff.

Ha
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Old 03-06-2008, 06:27 PM   #72
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Yep, next town over from me is basically a small airstrip with a bunch of houses surrounding it, all with hangers for garages and wide taxiways between the homes and the airstrip. Pretty funny to drive through. Trippy wide streets so two planes can taxi past each other at the same time.
Yeah. I saw on the news a couple days ago that two vintage aircraft crashed into each at one of these airparks, killing one of the pilots. One plane was landing while the other was taxiing into position for takeoff.
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Old 03-06-2008, 07:06 PM   #73
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Hmm, so people do the same dumb crap in airplanes that they do in cars...
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Old 03-06-2008, 07:09 PM   #74
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Hmm, so people do the same dumb crap in airplanes that they do in cars...
Yeah, it justs costs a lot more money to do it.
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Old 03-06-2008, 07:51 PM   #75
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Here's a little subdivision for aviation enthusiasts...

Jumbolair Aviation Estates
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Old 03-06-2008, 10:06 PM   #76
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Yep, next town over from me is basically a small airstrip with a bunch of houses surrounding it, all with hangers for garages and wide taxiways between the homes and the airstrip. Pretty funny to drive through. Trippy wide streets so two planes can taxi past each other at the same time.
These things are called airparks.
They don't do as well as the developers hope, from what I've heard.
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Old 03-06-2008, 10:17 PM   #77
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My parents dad really wanted to live in one, but they are quite pricey. We visited with a couple of aviation friends who lived in one if Florida and other in Oregon. The Florida one was very cool, nice amenities, and their house/hanger was just down the block from John Travolta, and Harrison Ford was also looking at buying a place there.

General aviation never really took off in this country (or any country for that matter) like people predicted. There is a host of reasons, but I think danger and price are the main ones.
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Old 03-06-2008, 10:57 PM   #78
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I want my dang flying car. We were supposed to have them 8 years ago.

Mind you, I can get the one I have airborne for brief periods of time, which Gabe finds quite entertaining, but sustained flight still seems to be beyond my grasp.
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Old 03-06-2008, 11:39 PM   #79
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I want the Jetsons personal rocket pack like that use to have at Disneyland . Strap that puppy on do a vertical take off, zoom off to work, shopping or the beach at about 100 MPH. Land in the parking lot and your done.

The next best thing to a transporter room..
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Old 03-07-2008, 04:17 AM   #80
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Diversification is likely to be the answer. Has anyone compared Mid-cap, Small-cap, Foreign company stocks along with bonds, gold/commodities.

It would be interesting to see those long-term historical charts stacked. I think IBD used to have a large poster one could order that showed a consolidated snapshot of that information along with historic descriptions of why (post analysis).
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