shasta
Recycles dryer sheets
Good evening.
I think I have everything in the plan and AA adjusted to my liking. Commentary from the seasoned and experienced here would be most welcome.
Age 39
Working: No
Would work again : right project - likely part time / consulting
Married: no
Children: no
AA:
Stocks (all VG index admiral shares)
US Large Cap 34%
US mid-small cap 15%
International 21%
Total 70%
Bonds (VG admiral shares)
US short term 9%
US intermediate term 10%
US long term 5%
International bonds 6%
Total 30%
Out of the total cash 100% 95% is invested as above. I keep 5% on hand with the intend to only spend 3-3.5% (if I work I will roll back into the investments on annual rebalancing)
The 3.5% spend level starting year one is 175-185% of my current base living expenses.
I intend to spend 3-3.5% of the actual value per annum - appreciate market gains, and since I am relying on it for income spend 5% less in years where 3-3.5% is less than previous years % (95% rule)
Firecalc gives me 100% success rating with high chance for growth.
CFA calc gives me 100% and Vanguard calc has me at 100% success (success meaning not running out of money for 60 years up to age 95.
One worst case scenario has my ending balance at 47% of starting balance when I reach age 95.
is 70% too loaded for stocks? Clearly I can make cuts in my spending in down years, an even seemingly at a comfortable level using the 95% rule.
Im fine long term holding so no issues there. I wont need to nor will I need to make sudden withdraws so having 5 years cash in the bonds seems reasonable and should keep me stable during 20-40% stock market drops until recovery.
The 95% reduction spending rule seems reasonable as well. 4 years in losses has me cutting back 20% total gradually.
Am I flying or dying?
I think I have everything in the plan and AA adjusted to my liking. Commentary from the seasoned and experienced here would be most welcome.
Age 39
Working: No
Would work again : right project - likely part time / consulting
Married: no
Children: no
AA:
Stocks (all VG index admiral shares)
US Large Cap 34%
US mid-small cap 15%
International 21%
Total 70%
Bonds (VG admiral shares)
US short term 9%
US intermediate term 10%
US long term 5%
International bonds 6%
Total 30%
Out of the total cash 100% 95% is invested as above. I keep 5% on hand with the intend to only spend 3-3.5% (if I work I will roll back into the investments on annual rebalancing)
The 3.5% spend level starting year one is 175-185% of my current base living expenses.
I intend to spend 3-3.5% of the actual value per annum - appreciate market gains, and since I am relying on it for income spend 5% less in years where 3-3.5% is less than previous years % (95% rule)
Firecalc gives me 100% success rating with high chance for growth.
CFA calc gives me 100% and Vanguard calc has me at 100% success (success meaning not running out of money for 60 years up to age 95.
One worst case scenario has my ending balance at 47% of starting balance when I reach age 95.
is 70% too loaded for stocks? Clearly I can make cuts in my spending in down years, an even seemingly at a comfortable level using the 95% rule.
Im fine long term holding so no issues there. I wont need to nor will I need to make sudden withdraws so having 5 years cash in the bonds seems reasonable and should keep me stable during 20-40% stock market drops until recovery.
The 95% reduction spending rule seems reasonable as well. 4 years in losses has me cutting back 20% total gradually.
Am I flying or dying?