Full Blown Iran-US WAR - are you reallocating assets ? Black Swan year ?

[Winemaker]

I just realized I missed Y2K in my rant; I gotta get back under my bed in the wine cellar.
Then I had to read the thread on heartburn medicines; I'm doomed.

 

[foxfirev5]

I was in the math club.

Scary. I was a badass in both the debate club and chess club while a fullblown hellion on the streets.

 

[MichaelB]

I just realized I missed Y2K in my rant; I gotta get back under my bed in the wine cellar.

You left out zombie apocalypse and asteroid collision, which the media is also ignoring, to the peril of mankind as we know it.

Context.
I don't think any one is saying that.

The comment was within the context of how many news items are positioned as something of great importance when in reality they are a blip on the screen as it relates to the market movement.

By now, I think everyone is pretty much over last/this week's Iran developments insofar as the danger to the market is concerned, but the media had whipped up many people to thinking that we were going to a full-out war, as the OP implied.

I tend to look to the market when I'm looking for 'truth' whenever the media says we are in an end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it situation.

I don’t agree with this either, but it’s Friday afternoon and life is too short to argue any more. I think Winemaker’s point was simply we have faced many crises, some existential, some real, others not so much, yet we are still here and the markets are higher, and like a kidney stone, this too shall pass, though it might be a bit painful.

 

[Winemaker]

You left out zombie apocalypse and asteroid collision, which the media is also ignoring, to the peril of mankind as we know it.


I don’t agree with this either, but it’s Friday afternoon and life is too short to argue any more. I think Winemaker’s point was simply we have faced many crises, some existential, some real, others not so much, yet we are still here and the markets are higher, and like a kidney stone, this too shall pass, though it might be a bit painful.

+1 I did not mean to trivialize the real threats you quote in #96, MichaelB!

 

[HFWR]

The fact that the worst case for many of those aforementioned maladies/disasters hasn’t yet happened does not mean they are not still possibilities...

As for the “media”...

https://youtu.be/iiCQcEW98OY

 

[HFWR]

A number of “military experts” at the local watering hole were opining about how quick a hot war would be over, and that it wouldn’t even require ground troops... [emoji849]

I don’t think a hot war is likely, but terror attacks are certainly possible. Not sure how/if any that is actionable...

 

[MichaelB]

+1 I did not mean to trivialize the real threats you quote in #96, MichaelB!

I did not doubt that for even a second ...

 

[marko]

I don’t agree with this either, but it’s Friday afternoon and life is too short to argue any more. I think Winemaker’s point was simply we have faced many crises, some existential, some real, others not so much, yet we are still here and the markets are higher, and like a kidney stone, this too shall pass, though it might be a bit painful.

So we must be missing each other here because I agree 100% with Winemaker's point and your bolds above and thought I was simply reinforcing his point. Sorry if we misunderstood each other. (or am I misunderstanding now?)

 

[MichaelB]

So we must be missing each other here because I agree 100% with Winemaker's point and your bolds above and thought I was simply reinforcing his point. Sorry if we misunderstood each other. (or am I misunderstanding now?)

Peace, brother

 

[Koolau]

Wait, you forgot nuclear fallout in the 1950's which was supposed to mean that we who were kids in the 1950's would die in some unspeakably horrible unspecified way long before our time. My neighbors spent a ton of money building an underground bomb shelter in their back yard. And there were all those Duck And Cover drills at school, air raid sirens all over our town (tested regularly on, I think? the first Tuesday of each month), and so on.

Yeah, I recall the duck and cover drills. But on a sadder note, my younger sister was one of 5 girls who were friends in 6th grade who all died of cancer before their 40th BD. Oddly, there was some fairly heavy fall out in the early 50s in the midwest. Obviously too small a sample to conclude anything. Still... Talk about black swans.

 

[marko]

And there were all those Duck And Cover drills at school, air raid sirens all over our town (tested regularly on, I think? the first Tuesday of each month), and so on.

Our teacher had us hide under our desks "in case of an air raid". I was in the back of the class and heard "ear ache" and for the life of me couldn't figure out how that would help.

(not that hiding under your desk in the event of an air raid would help either)

 

[EastWest Gal]

Our teacher had us hide under our desks "in case of an air raid". I was in the back of the class and heard "ear ache" and for the life of me couldn't figure out how that would help.



(not that hiding under your desk in the event of an air raid would help either)

Growing up in the SF Bay Area, our teachers told us they were Earthquake Drills. But all the kids thought the drills were for a nuke. Like those tiny desks would protect us from a nuke...

It turns out the training WAS partly an earthquake drill. It came in handy when DH and I were in the South Bay during the Loma Prieta quake in 1989. We both had gone through the same drills in school. We acted instinctively to get to a safe part of our apartment when it hit.

 

[rk911]

Off topic but....
I often think the local news over dramatizes the weather to keep it audience indoors watching more tube.

ya think?! the weather channel leads the way on this. “winter storm isaiah”! prepare to die!!

 

[Eucerin]

This thread is going all over the places

 

[NW-Bound]

This thread is going all over the places

It's exhibiting a random-walk characteristic, like that of the market.

 

[Nemo2]

It's exhibiting a random-walk characteristic, like that of the market.

The epitome of the Black (Swan) Market?

 

[Eucerin]

It's exhibiting a random-walk characteristic, like that of the market.

Speak of the market, my 2 cents only.
The market is continuing up until the election, because our president is doing what ever he can to get himself re-elected. The market is going down after the election regardless who is elected

 

[MichaelB]

We really need to make an effort to keep politics, including elections, out of the discussion, please.

 

[NW-Bound]

It's exhibiting a random-walk characteristic, like that of the market.

The epitome of the Black (Swan) Market?

No.

The market may wander around for a while. Occasionally, it gets to a cliff and falls off it. That's your Black Swan. Most of the time, it just wanders.

Most threads wander around, then die off when nobody has anything more to say. Occasionally, a thread wanders too far, and runs into Porky.

Darn, I hate Porky, even though I just finished a lunch with French baguette and Spanish ham. Yes, the whole ham that my brother brought as contribution for the New Year Day party that I hosted. We hardly made a dent in it, and would still have a huge leftover even if we did not have other dishes. So, his wife cut it up and gave everybody a piece. I am slowly carving away my 2.5-lb chunk for lunch everyday. It's harder to slice than most people think.

By the way, it's a Serrano ham, not Iberico. All the better, because too much of a good thing is not good. One is better off buying a few ounces of Iberico ham at a time, in order to enjoy it. You don't want it to come out of your ears.

 

[mickeyd]

I already have a nuclear war between USA and Iran factored into my risk assessment and AA.

 

[LRDave]

We need to get back to "pay-the-mortgage-off-or-not" and "when-to-take-SS"......

 

[GrayHare]

Assuming the downed 737 was not intentional, IMO it's revealing because it demonstrates both jumpiness and a lack of skill.

At a young age I wanted to know why we did air raid drills but no one would tell me. The ol' duck and cover can still be useful at distance, for example, fewer injuries from flying glass, etc.

 

[Nemo2]

........it demonstrates both jumpiness and a lack of skill.

We had a solitary posting up in Sakkaka, (NW KSA); the guy would tell me that every once in a a while a solitary IDF fighter plane would do a couple touch and goes....unchallenged.

QED.

 

[target2019]

This past week I had ham each day. Tonight a little prosciutto in a Greek salad. Thanks, Porky!

 

[street]

Speak of the market, my 2 cents only.
The market is continuing up until the election, because our president is doing what ever he can to get himself re-elected. The market is going down after the election regardless who is elected

That would be a guess, no different then market timing. I wouldn't put any value on that assumption.