Full Blown Iran-US WAR - are you reallocating assets ? Black Swan year ?

[mpeirce]

I remember those drills. Even in elementary school, living eight miles from the D.C. line we were under no delusions that there would be enough of us left to pick up so we thought the whole exercise was pointless.

I remember when I moved to Silicon Valley in the 80's, there was a facility not far from where I lived called the Blue Cube (Onizuka Air Force Station, now closed) which was suppose to be in the single digits on the on the Soviet's target list.

I figured this was a good thing - no lingering about when the big war comes.

 

[MRG]

I stayed at a conservation area in Ontario about 20 years ago; one swan, (which it turned out was apparently awaiting the arrival of his/her mate), and maybe fifty or sixty Canada geese.

Watched thirty or so geese head to the lake en masse from an embankment - lone swan (exhibiting no aggression that I could discern), quietly swam to and fro a few feet out from the bank. The geese changed their minds.

When the second swan arrived, the pair commandeered one section of the lake for their exclusive use, and permitted the geese access to the rest. (Short term lease, perhaps.)

We have one swan left from them being brought in years ago. Geese leave it alone. Last fall that swan flew right over me. Holy cow, that's a big azz bird.

 

[augam]

huh?

 

[harley]

That's odd...I've observed that Canada geese are intimidated by (white) swans, and keep well out of their way,

Absolutely. The swans on our lake were imported to chase away the Canada geese. However we got more than we bargained for when the swans started killing the young geese.

Very strange. We've got a white swan around our house that seems to be part of the local flock of Canada geese. They treat it like any other goose, and it acts the part. I'd never heard that they are antagonists.

 

[NW-Bound]

Here's a goose that takes on two swans. Bigger does not always mean stronger.

 

[jollystomper]

The Russians were gonna kill us all in the Cold War, the Red Chinese during the Korean War, the Russian's again during Viet Nam, UFO's, the hippies during the '60's, the Blacks during the Race Riots/MLK assassination, Acid Rain during the '70's, the uses of bron paper bags Global cooling of the late '70's, UFO's, the cowboy prez. Reagan, the hole in the ozone layer, skin cancer due to lack of sunscreen, Saddam and the Revolutionary Guard during the First Gulf War, Global Warming, the terrorists after 9-11, vaccinations, Saddam again during the 2nd Gulf War, Climate change, the terrorists after the Afghan invasion, rising ocean levels, the elimination of Bin Laden, sunscreen, the use of straws and plastic bags, the Orange Man, UFO's, and now Iran. I don't know how I lived to be 61.

Following the college advice of Senator John Blutarsky (D-PA)?

 

[marko]

The Russians were gonna kill us all in the Cold War, the Red Chinese during the Korean War, the Russian's again during Viet Nam, UFO's, the hippies during the '60's, the Blacks during the Race Riots/MLK assassination, Acid Rain during the '70's, the uses of bron paper bags Global cooling of the late '70's, UFO's, the cowboy prez. Reagan, the hole in the ozone layer, skin cancer due to lack of sunscreen, Saddam and the Revolutionary Guard during the First Gulf War, Global Warming, the terrorists after 9-11, vaccinations, Saddam again during the 2nd Gulf War, Climate change, the terrorists after the Afghan invasion, rising ocean levels, the elimination of Bin Laden, sunscreen, the use of straws and plastic bags, the Orange Man, UFO's, and now Iran. I don't know how I lived to be 61.

But yet, (back on topic) the markets continued to chug along in an overall positive trend.

By your list, it make you wonder how the media has got so much wrong for so long; for half a century, they've only skewed what we should be focused on; like they're deliberately trying to distract us.

 

[HadEnuff]

a "full blown war" is very unlikely. In a "full blown war" (think 1943) the folks at home feel the pinch. They don't like that so the pressure is on to end it.

We now engage in "blood letting" whereby life at home goes on pretty much as before. This allows for these engagements to last decades, without much blowback on the homefront.

 

[Winemaker]

Winemaking perhaps?

It does provide a great distraction to the daily diatribe, but I have only been fermenting grains and grapes since 2011.
I retired in 2014, born in 1958, so I never experienced the fallout shelter drills.

 

[audreyh1]

But yet, (back on topic) the markets continued to chug along in an overall positive trend.

By your list, it make you wonder how the media has got so much wrong for so long; for half a century, they've only skewed what we should be focused on; like they're deliberately trying to distract us.

Well, yeah. And keep us glued to the tube, which is the primal directive of broadcast/cable news media.

 

[GravitySucks]

Off topic but....
I often think the local news over dramatizes the weather to keep it audience indoors watching more tube.

Well, yeah. And keep us glued to the tube, which is the primal directive of broadcast/cable news media.

 

[Silver]

This has got to be one of the strangest threads I've read on this site.

 

[doneat54]

I was in the math club.

 

[REWahoo]

This has got to be one of the strangest threads I've read on this site.

Then you obviously weren't around for this one: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/i-thought-id-dive-right-in-but-i-muffed-it-16828.html

 

[kgtest]

Then you obviously weren't around for this one: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/i-thought-id-dive-right-in-but-i-muffed-it-16828.html

Oh my. Before my time on this forum!

Even if the President was assasinated, which to me is the biggest one day event that could take place in terms of a war...the markets still recover...

History lesson:

When news of the assassination spread on television and radio and shock and grief took hold, stock prices took a sharp dive. On the day JFK was shot and killed in Dallas by Lee Harvey Oswald, the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 plunged 2.8%. A shocked Wall Street shut down the New York Stock Exchange at 2:07 p.m. EST. Friday

"It was a shock to the market," says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ. "There was chaos and total uncertainty, from a political perspective."

Adding to the market downturn: An enormous scandal that broke on Nov. 19, enveloping American Express and several brokerage houses, as loans secured by tanks of salad oil proved to be worthless.

But the negative market reaction was short-lived, as is often the case after scary stock market shocks, such as wars, terror attacks, financial scares and assassinations. The losses were confined to a single day, and the market had regained all of its losses two days later, according to S&P Capital IQ data.


Still, the first-day reaction to JFK's unexpected death was among the biggest in response to unanticipated shocks over the past 70 years, according to S&P Capital IQ.

Indeed, the nearly 3% one-day drop on the day the nation's 35th president was assassinated was bigger than first-day plunges following the scare over the Cuban Missile Crisis (-2.7%) on Oct. 10, 1962; the attempted assassination of President Ronald Reagan (-1.2%) on March 30, 1981; the resignation of President Richard Nixon (-1.3%) on Aug. 8, 1974; and the collapse of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management (-2.2%) on Sept. 23, 1998.

 

[jollystomper]

Oh my. Before my time on this forum!

Even if the President was assassinated, which to me is the biggest one day event that could take place in terms of a war...the markets still recover...

An attack on U.S. soil, like 9/11, would be bigger. I believe (too lazy to check) the markets were down something around 6-7% the next day and over 10% by the end of that week. But, as you said, the markets still recovered I think in a month or so.

 

[Chuckanut]

they've only skewed what we should be focused on; like they're deliberately trying to distract us.

+1

Marko, a few more comments like that and I may put you on my list of Dangerous Radicals Who Infest this Site. You are starting to remind me of a character from Shakespere.

“Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look; He thinks too much: such men are dangerous” - Julius Caeser, Shakespere

 

[kgtest]

An attack on U.S. soil, like 9/11, would be bigger. I believe (too lazy to check) the markets were down something around 6-7% the next day and over 10% by the end of that week. But, as you said, the markets still recovered I think in a month or so.

Aha! Excellent point, and highly coordinated multi-pronged attack on US soil, against financial building, pentegon, and other military sites...involving MANY deaths to americans at home in a single day. FEAR factors were at all time highs...I remember in the military they told us to stop wearing our military BDUs off of the base after that one...Threatcon Orange said no way we would be intentional targets.

 

[USGrant1962]

An attack on U.S. soil, like 9/11, would be bigger. I believe (too lazy to check) the markets were down something around 6-7% the next day and over 10% by the end of that week. But, as you said, the markets still recovered I think in a month or so.

Yup. And:

Persian Gulf War - one month +16.7%, one year +32.3%
Iraq War - one month +2.2%, one year +28.4%

Dan Wiener put together a list of Middle Eastern related events and the only one that appears to have had a real effect on the markets was the Arab Oil Embargo (-5.7% / -36.2%), but thanks to fracking we don't need to worry about that any more.

*percentages are price only.

 

[Silver]

Then you obviously weren't around for this one: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/i-thought-id-dive-right-in-but-i-muffed-it-16828.html

I wasn't around for that thread, but I do recall the one with a pancake perched on a rabbits' head.

 

[MichaelB]

Are people saying the Cold War was a media distraction? Same for the wars in Korea and Vietnam? I do not agree.

 

[Nemo2]

Are people saying the Cold War was a media distraction? Same for the wars in Korea and Vietnam? I do not agree.

Different media? (No, on reconsideration, there was Walter Duranty, whose output resulted in Jayson Blair being nominated Employee of the Year.)

 

[audreyh1]

Then you obviously weren't around for this one: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/i-thought-id-dive-right-in-but-i-muffed-it-16828.html

Wow - I had missed that gem before my time. Thanks!

Well - maybe not. It did go from bad to worse!

 

[marko]

Are people saying the Cold War was a media distraction? Same for the wars in Korea and Vietnam? I do not agree.

Context.
I don't think any one is saying that.

The comment was within the context of how many news items are positioned as something of great importance when in reality they are a blip on the screen as it relates to the market movement.

By now, I think everyone is pretty much over last/this week's Iran developments insofar as the danger to the market is concerned, but the media had whipped up many people to thinking that we were going to a full-out war, as the OP implied.

I tend to look to the market when I'm looking for 'truth' whenever the media says we are in an end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it situation.

 

[GravitySucks]

An attack on U.S. soil, like 9/11, would be bigger. I believe (too lazy to check) the markets were down something around 6-7% the next day and over 10% by the end of that week. But, as you said, the markets still recovered I think in a month or so.

I remember the NYSE and NASDAQ were closed until 9/17/2001. One reason, the publicly stated reason, was to avoid a panic. Another reason was the main data communication lines were out of service.

From Investopedia:
On the first day of NYSE trading after 9/11, the market fell 684 points, a 7.1% decline, setting a record for the biggest loss in exchange history for one trading day. At the close of trading that Friday, ending a week that saw the biggest losses in NYSE history, the Dow Jones was down almost 1,370 points, representing a loss of over 14%. The Standard and Poor's (S&P) index lost 11.6%. An estimated $1.4 trillion in value was lost in those five days of trading.