I just figured my return for 2004. I am up 16%. I am fully retired with no income source, so that figure is net of federal taxes paid ($14,000 estimated 2004 and final 2003); and living expense of about $28,000.
I feel quite good about this, as I had over 50% in fixed < 1 yr maturity. Also I made some fairly heavy and so far losing bets on QQQQ puts. Some have or will shortly expire worthless, some live on to fight another day. Another negative was poor results in my gold stock account.
Foreign stocks and US stocks did well, as did foreign bonds.
Day before yesterday I cut further my US equity exposure, incurred some more tax for '05, but I think positioned myself better for what I expect will be a down year.
I don't claim to be guru. But here is how I look at changing my risk exposure. I am walking down an urban street at midnight. I see a couple of young men approaching with a pit bull. I don't know that they or the dog are dangerous to me- They quite possibly or even probably are not. Still, I am going to attempt to cross the street. If I don't, I consider myself a dumb-ass.
Mikey, a dirty market timer