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How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-02-2005, 05:14 PM   #1
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How did you do in 2004?

Just finished the 2004 calculations, and aside from some out-of-balance sectors that are due for rebalance in the first quarter, my portfolio looked like the below this year. Actual performance was a little over *14% in 2004, after paying fees of about 0.4%. *

It consisted of: * (sorry about the alignment, can't seem to get columns to work right)

US Large Value Tilt * * * * * *12.0%
US Small Value Tilt * * * * * *8.0%
Int'l Small *9.0%
Emerging Mkt * * * * * *6.0%
Int'l Large * * * * * *5.0%
US Government Bonds (tips,Ibonds)* * * * * *4.0%
ST Corp /Money Mkt * * * * * *4.0%
Med Term Int'l Bonds * * * * * *12.0%
Med Term US Bonds * * * * * *10.0%
GNMA Bonds * * * * * *5.0%
High Yield Bonds * * * * * *5.0%
Oil and Gas * * * * * *3.0%
Market Neutral Hedge Fund * * * * * *3.0%
Commodities * * * * * *4.0%
Commercial Real Estate * * * * * *5.0%
Private Equity/ Venture Capital * * * * * *5.0%
* * * * * *100.0%

In rough terms, that is 40% equity, 40% F.I and 20% other (the last 5 categories)

While this is gratifying, does anyone else have the same feeling as I that a couple good years (2003 was also good) will just need to be paid for with under-average years in the future? *The 20 year historical averages for this portfolio (longest data series available for several of the asset classes) is 9.1%

Its one of the psychological burdens of this asset allocation with annual rebalancing approach... *bad years obviously never feel very good, and then good years just feel like you'll need to pay later. *best I can hope for is these good years were already paid for in 2000-2002, but I kinda doubt it! *
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-02-2005, 08:05 PM   #2
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

My 60/40 Coffeehouse IRA had a total return of 13.71%
in 2004. This was helped by buying the REIT fund
at its dip in the spring and by doubling up the
international allocation about mid-year. I also loaded
up on the TIPS fund during the spring dip.

Although I am worried about REITs right now, I
rebalanced everything last week and plan to
stick to my guns going forward.

Cheers and Happy New Year to all.

Charlie
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-02-2005, 08:22 PM   #3
 
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

I do not plan to change anything during 2005, unless a bond would get called. Could happen.
Otherwise, steady as she goes.................

JG
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-02-2005, 08:53 PM   #4
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

My 401K of mutual funds was up 9.57%, my IRA that has only stocks that i have selected (no mutual funds) was up 196.8%, and my taxable account which i also have only stocks in was up 132.1%. The last three years, dad's friend, at the advice of a local attorney aka real-estate investor aka stockpicker in town, had bet on JDS Uniphase, Broadcom, and Brocade Systems and lost big. He finally took my dad up on his bragging about my stock market success and chose 2 of my pics for his 2004 contribution. By my calculation i gave him a 241% return last year, in return he gave me $20 to buy my first legal drink for my 21st : anyway, needless to say, he is very anxious to take me out for breakfast to discuss investments this january now if only i could get lots of people to take my tips and give me a percentage of their gains. hmmmmmm.... i need to start a mutual fund
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-02-2005, 09:56 PM   #5
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

Quote:
...
How do you pick your stocks?

As for the topic, my boring index funds are doing well... I don't know what % they are up, but I know they are up. Long term..... long term.... 7% will get me to my goals, and that's what i'm shooting for with the bulk of my investments.
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-02-2005, 11:56 PM   #6
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

For my moms 2 account 17.37% and 8.21%,and this was with a pretty hefty cash/CD anchor(roughly 30% in the first account) for most of the year till roughly last part of october.REITS definitely did the heavy lifting both CEF'S and single issues.Asset allocation is as follows,there is some cross over but not sure how to deal with that.For example PCL is a REIT but also SP500,but i just call it a REIT.
Acct 1----17.37% +

28.93%----lg cap stock
23.46%----REITS
11.47%----Money Market
9.35%------Domestic Bonds(T's,TIPS,STRIPS)
6.72%------Global Bonds
4.67%------Gold/silver
4.39%------Corp Bonds
2.92%------CD's
2.35%------Royalty Trusts
2.32%------Small Cap stocks
2.18%------International Stock
1.24%------Commodity

Acct 2------8.21% +
66.63%-----Corp. bonds
20.70%-----Large cap stock
12.67%----Money Market

Everyone loves to toot there horn,but the real focus should be on making there planned SWR rate plus inflation
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 06:03 AM   #7
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

I have no idea - but will look when my Vanguard quarterly statement arrives in a few days.

My main concern - proper diversification reflecting my age/retirement status.

A miny ROTH conversion and swag at divs/cap gains in hobby stocks(15%) means another tax payment before 1/15.

Will be taking another hard look at switching from Lifestrategy to Target Retirement Series this year.
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 06:06 AM   #8
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

According to Quicken we came out at 12.5%. Started with 55% stock allocation which has swollen to almost 60%. Our planned rebalance time is end of first quarter. Hope equity holds on a little bit longer!
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 07:04 AM   #9
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

A quick, extremely rough calculation says between 12% and 16.4% return on investment vehicles, but I started the year far more conservative than usual with 16.4% of my portfolio in a money market fund as a result of lingering job uncertainty. Also started 2004 with several thousand in debt with 9.99% interest rate; all that is gone now; not sure how to quantify that as a return and don't care to try the math. I'm much better off today than the start of last year. Woohoo!

EDIT (1-3-05 7:30pm EST): Went to vanguard.com and looked at their number for my performance. They say 10.3%, and I think they're right. I was thinking 12%-16.4% sounded high given my asset class changes in 2004. Have been at about 80% stock most of the year, with the other 20% or so went from MM to bonds. In the last month or two made a long term strategy adjustment and weighed in more on bonds and added international stock index ~10% and a REIT fund 10+%.
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 07:12 AM   #10
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

I thought I was doing ok till I read this post. I decided to sell some of my stocks this year to payoff the house. This put me at 60% fixed, 40% stock holding. Best I can tell I made 8%.

I plan on getting my percentages back to 50/50 this year by adding to my stock holdings. I don't plan on ER till May so all my income between now and then will go into stocks.

With no debt the 8% still feels good. As I get closer to my target date I get much more conservative.
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 09:24 AM   #11
 
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

I can't match most of those equity heavy portfolios
either. I am happy for those who made out though.
I just roll along and cash my monthly checks which
currently add up to about 7% per year. No fluctuations
though and that's what I want. I gave up the upside
for predictability.

JG
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 10:07 AM   #12
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

My 70%/25%/5% stock/bond/cash mix reeled in a 14.7% return for 2004.

My goal is to get a 6-7% REAL return so I'm .
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 10:11 AM   #13
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

When I quit in 2000 I moved my 401(K) to an IRA. I've made no additions to or withdrawals from that IRA since, so its performance is easy to track.

As well as I'm doing the IRA is still well below what it was in 2000. My whole portfolio has grown to a new high as a result of new investments in other 401(k)s and their resulting earnings, though.

I am surprised at how well I've handled the value swing. I guess I'm cut out for stock fund investing after all.

EDIT: I don't know, mickeyd...we don't have firm inflation numbers yet, do we?
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 11:24 AM   #14
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

well marshac, i look for stocks that are trading at a reasonable valuation but still have excellent growth prospects. One of my favorite methods is buying stocks trading with a PE of 15 or less, however growing 20%+. I basically value the company and look for an upside of at least 50% before I buy. Most of my companies are less than 500mil market cap, and most of them when i buy them are less than 100mil. market cap. I'm a small-cap guy and that's a lucrative place to be!
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 11:30 AM   #15
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

I'm up 10.8% for tax deferred accounts, it's somewhat coffeehouse and 60/40, only no reits, more in foreign, bonds in tips fund, and short term corp. Taxed is in wellesley and "I" bonds and MM, I don't know how much I'm up there, suspect just a little.
As a side note, I remember being up outrageous amounts, and down equally scary amounts when I thought I was a stock picker. Now I know I'm not, now I'm an invester, at least I hope I am. The amounts are meager, but the ride is smoother........Shredder
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 12:34 PM   #16
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

I'm up 10.5% for the year. Current allocation is 33% stock funds, 65% bonds, 2% cash, but for much of the year I was way too heavy in cash as I pondered my reallocation for a rather sudden and unexpected retirement. My best performer was long term individual TIPS purchased on the secondary market. They came in at about 22% annualized (I didn't hold them the entire year). All in all it was a very good year.
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 12:55 PM   #17
 
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

Quote:
I'm up 10.5% for the year. Current allocation is 33% stock funds, 65% bonds, 2% cash, but for much of the year I was way too heavy in cash as I pondered my reallocation for a rather sudden and unexpected retirement. My best performer was long term individual TIPS purchased on the secondary market. They came in at about 22% annualized (I didn't hold them the entire year). All in all it was a very good year.
I am a Bond idiot, but could you explain to me how your 2.5% TIPS came in at 22% this year. Have they appreciated this much on the secondary market? Did you sell them?
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 02:03 PM   #18
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

+ 7.6% total return in 2004.

Allocation is slightly less than 40% equities. More would have been nice, as it turns out. Balance in I-bonds, zero coupon treasuries, preferreds.

Best performance was by International & REIT funds.

Portfolio at record high. No significant changes planned in 2005.

Two & 1/2 years to ER @ 54. Good luck to each of you.
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 02:43 PM   #19
 
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Re: How did you do in 2004?


~ 9.5% for the year.
Started with 50% stocks, I'm at 54% now.
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Re: How did you do in 2004?
Old 01-03-2005, 03:27 PM   #20
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Re: How did you do in 2004?

+9.9% for the year. Core holding was (and remains) Dodge & Cox Balanced Fund, which returned 13.3%.

115 days and counting...

REW
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