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Is Dell a long term dud?
Old 08-03-2006, 08:53 PM   #1
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Is Dell a long term dud?

Have a relatively small position in Dell. Have had it for about 6 years. Does anyone look with favor for a long term resurgence over next 5-7 years?Would you dump it?
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?
Old 08-03-2006, 09:04 PM   #2
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?

I wouldnt touch a pc maker of any kind with a ten foot pole. Better time to own the arms suppliers than the people fighting the pc wars...

These things are commodities at this point and Dells gotten by through cost cutting and efficiency. Based on my recent experience with them, they cut until they hit bone and kept cutting. I cant see significant profits or even maintenance of existing profits. Historically, the integrator made their money by providing a product and a service that held enough value for someone to pay a premium for it. Dell can still knock out a decent box cheap, but I dont see the good (enough) service anymore.

Theres also the resurgent risk of thin clients. People are fed up with complexity, bugs, viruses and all the cost and aggravation associated with owning a computer. Up until now, they havent had much of a choice. Google is close to changing all that.

When all you need is a screen and a keyboard and a box the size of a deck of cards with a simple processor and a network connection in it that costs $50...whither Dell?
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?
Old 08-03-2006, 09:10 PM   #3
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?

Cant be much growth potential left in Dell at all. Not something I would look to invest in.
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?
Old 08-03-2006, 09:36 PM   #4
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?

I bought in 1991 and sold most of my stock in 1998, so I am a BIG fan of Dell! I have a very small stake remaining in Dell from that original purchase in 1991 (basis = 32 cents per share).

That said, I agree with the above conclusions. I think their prospects for the next 5-10 years are mediocre. They already dominate the PC market and there's not a lot of growth there. They've done a lot of what they can with the server market. So, where is the next area of their growth? Unlike MSFT, where you can point to a number of areas where growth can arise, Dell doesn't have anything obvious out there.

Of course they are in great financial shape, so they could be a nice long term value play and/or grow through acquisitions. I don't think the downside is significant so that's enough for me to keep holding my small stake. I wouldn't buy now though because there are better investments out there IMHO.
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?
Old 08-03-2006, 09:52 PM   #5
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?

Would you buy a toaster maker or have you thought about buying a television maker recently? Dell is in that class of manufacturers. Think about it.

See the thread on the google spread sheet and you will get an idea about what is going on.

Get out of this stock while you can!
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?
Old 08-04-2006, 09:57 AM   #6
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?

With the economy ahem 'softening' I would guess DELL's outlook is grim.

If they can simply maintain their profit they will be doing a good job. I actually would prefer a toaster supplier as it is something people buy even in poor economic times
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?
Old 08-04-2006, 11:05 AM   #7
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news0...dell_fire.html

This one was not a dud.
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?
Old 08-04-2006, 11:14 AM   #8
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?

yikes--I assume the computer was asleep or even off when it exploded/burst into flame
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?
Old 08-05-2006, 09:21 PM   #9
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Re: Is Dell a long term dud?

Yikes is right!
From the description, it sounds like the computer must have been on for some time, or just recently turned off.

Or, it may have been a seperate issue. With the temp that high, and setting the computer on the floor of the truck, I wonder if any condensation caused a short which started the thing?

In either case, definately something DELL needs to take care of.
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