Is the Bear Market Causing Anyone to Consider Taking SS Earlier Than They Planned?

The one thing that taking it early (62) has over the other options is if you die early at least you get something out of it.

If you die early are you really getting something out of it?

If your motivation is "getting yours" from the man, you are welcome to it.

Extracting the maximum amount of money from my fellow taxpayers for my heirs isn't a concern of mine.
 
If your main goal is to avoid not getting any social security benefits in the event you die early, then you should indeed start collecting as soon as you can. And you should hope you don't die before 62. After you are dead, your survivors can say "He was wise to get some."

If you live into your 80s or longer, then you are giving up some money. But at least you'll always be able to say "Well sure, my checks are now about 57% of what they could have been if I waited until 70. But at least I got some."

And of course if you have a spouse that would prefer to have your maximum survivor benefits, well you won't be around to see any potential sorrow anyway.

Gotcha! Thanks
 
A few thoughts relative to my personal situation. (Your mileage may vary).

- My portfolio is still higher than it was when I retired 4.5 years ago. At this point there is no reason for me to be concerned about lowering my WR because of a portfolio hit. (I raised it for the first time in 2018... I have been skipping the inflation adjustments up till this time.)

- DH is 9.5 years older than me, and took SS at 62. This allowed us to collect for our teenagers. (A quirk of the law that I found out about here at ER.org.) It was a total no brainer for him to take it given that the there was extra $$ for the dependent minors. This situation does not apply to many here on this board. What can I say - I was a late bloomer when it came to marriage and kids... now I'm retired with teenagers.

- I was the higher earner between DH and myself. While I leave the option to re-evaluate and change my mind... my current plan is to wait till either FRA or age 70. That's 10-13 years from now. I don't have huge longevity in my family, but DH does... he'd assume my higher SS if I pre-decease him... which despite our age difference is a real possibility.

But I see no reason to pull the trigger on SS sooner due to the current market situation.
 
If you die early are you really getting something out of it?

If your motivation is "getting yours" from the man, you are welcome to it.

Extracting the maximum amount of money from my fellow taxpayers for my heirs isn't a concern of mine.


I guess some are not interested in getting some of their own money back. And now feel its some sort of freebee. If I break even, with zero appreciation (1975-2013) on my own money I will be happy. It's not an entitlement in my mind. It's not taxpayers money. I just wished the Gov. had not squandered my money on things other than me. I paid the maximum for well over a decade. Close to 2. And do not feel one little bit bad about receiving it. YMMV.
 
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Must have missed it. All I can go by is my Estimated Benefits.
62 $1967 mo. $23,604 yr. 18 yrs to 80 $424,872
67 $2794 mo. $33,528 yr. 13 yrs to 80 $435,864
70 $3465 mo. $41,580 yr. 10 yrs to 80 $415,800
And yes, I would like to leave an ok inheritance. If possible.
I just don't see the big advantage of waiting till 70.
Unless you based your retirement around it. Which I didn't do.
I honestly don't have that much faith in our Gov. Just me I guess.
Especially going out to 2042. But agree it could be looked at as a plus after 80.
I expect to be spending less after 80 V.S. 60-80.
Again, probably just me.


Those were pretty much our thoughts. The payback period to wait seemed too long for us with uncertain benefits that far out. We took pensions at 55 and plan on both at 62 with one set of benefits left to go. So far no regrets. It is like getting paid without the working 40+ hours a week part.
 


I see this stated all the time and just do not understand it.



Please explain why you think that those currently collecting SS would be exempt from any future cuts in benefits?



Those of use nearing the age to collect vote just as much as those collecting; so "exempting" those already collecting would probably cause even more of a ruckus with politicians.


A "fair" ( YEs I realize life is not fair) would be if there are future benefit reductions...is that ALL recipients ( current and future) collectively take a haircut. This way the pain could be spread across the board and less money needs to be taken from future recipients if everyone shares in the reduction of benefits.


Makes sense to me.

I agree that if there were to be cuts, no one would be exempt. However, I will continue to not even acknowledge this could happen. Why? Because there are several steps that will be taken to fund the system before any of this could even be discusses.
 
Assuming you do not wish to leave much of an inheritance, taking SS at 70 gives you more money to spend each year starting at 62. This has been shown several times in other threads.

Must have missed it. All I can go by is my Estimated Benefits.
62 $1967 mo. $23,604 yr. 18 yrs to 80 $424,872
67 $2794 mo. $33,528 yr. 13 yrs to 80 $435,864
70 $3465 mo. $41,580 yr. 10 yrs to 80 $415,800
And yes, I would like to leave an ok inheritance. If possible.
I just don't see the big advantage of waiting till 70.
Unless you based your retirement around it. Which I didn't do.
I honestly don't have that much faith in our Gov. Just me I guess.
Especially going out to 2042. But agree it could be looked at as a plus after 80.
I expect to be spending less after 80 V.S. 60-80.
Again, probably just me.

Ok, so here's the math. Let's say that you are 62 and have $1 million and think that a 4% WR is ok.

If you retire at 62 and start SS at 62, you can spend $63,604 in inflation adjusted $ for the rest of your life... $23,604 of SS and $40,000 from your portfolio.

Alternatively, at age 62 you can put aside 8 years worth of SS at age 70 or $332,640 ($41,580 a year times 8 years) in a MM account, and withdraw 4% a year from the remainder of $667,360.... $26,694 a year. Between the $26,694 a year from your portfolio and the $41,580 from the side account for age 62-70 and SS after age 70, you can spend $68,274 each year in inflation adjusted $ for the rest of your life.

So for the same risk, would you rather have $63,604 to spend or $68,274 to spend?

ETA... even if SS is discounted 23% in 2034 you still come out ahead, albeit slightly...

SS @ 62 .... $23,604 * (1-23%) + $40,000 = $58,175
SS @ 70 .... $41,580 * (1-23%) + $26,694 = $58,711
 
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If I use a probability tree type analysis, I personally would use a 100% factor for the SS at 62 amounts and lower than 100% for age 70 so for me the age 62 would still win out.
 
If I use a probability tree type analysis, I personally would use a 100% factor for the SS at 62 amounts and lower than 100% for age 70 so for me the age 62 would still win out.


Just like Religion, it doesn't have to make any sense. All that matters is that you believe!
 
Just like Religion, it doesn't have to make any sense. All that matters is that you believe!


I don't understand what you mean by doesn't make any sense. What doesn't make any sense? Using a probability tree, assigning a probability factor under 100 to future benefits or something else? If you think there are no possible changes to tax structures, chained CPI, asset testing or Social Security benefits then 100 would be the factor to use, but I am not certain none of those will happen at a future date. Plus I might die before I reach 70 and collect zero.
 
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lol, like I said a few posts back, "numbers are hard" and therefore clearly being ignored in favor of warm fuzzy uninformed opinions that apparently just feel ever so much more comfy.
Ain't human nature entertaining :facepalm:
 
MODS! This has devolved into another generic "when to take SS" thread! HELP! :facepalm::facepalm::facepalm:

:)
 
In the end, unless you are in a situation like Rodi, or myself who was able to take spousal for 4 years while waiting for my own benefits to grow, it all boils down to those who "prefer the bird in the hand", or those who want to "prevent having to eat cat food at the ripe old age of 90+".


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........ it all boils down to those who "prefer the bird in the hand", or those who want to "prevent having to eat cat food at the ripe old age of 90+".


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum


Or those who understand Math, and those that don't.
 
People can be reasonable, rational, well educated and math literate, yet still disagree.
 
This might help.
 

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Probability trees are mathematical models. I keep an old management decision and analysis textbook around for when we have to make financial decisions like whether to take pensions as a lump sum or annuity and when to take SS. The tree branches just assign a probability to each possible outcome -

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-tree-diagrams.html

If you type in cuts to Social Security in Google, there are no shortage of articles and platform statements by many major political leaders who have said the cuts need to occur, so in our household we do not weigh the future benefits as 100% guaranteed. Plus there's the trust fund issue in 2034 that is the current default path.
 
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This is not the kind of math one needs to be a PhD in Mathematics to understand. And nobody who posts here lacks the requisite level of math skills


I am quite sure that there are more people here that don't have the 'requisite' level of math skills than people that eat cat food.
 
I am quite sure that there are more people here that don't have the 'requisite' level of math skills than people that eat cat food.


You have implied that using probability trees implies poor math skills, and repeated that implication in several posts without explaining why. Why not just explain factually without being disagreeable why they would not be appropriate to use in this situation.
 
You have implied that using probability trees implies poor math skills, and repeated that implication in several posts without explaining why. Why not just explain factually without being disagreeable why they would not be appropriate to use in this situation.


It's been repeated many times on this forum. And in this very thread in post #82....
 
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