Is this the long awaited correction

...I think all this volatility is mostly oil driven. The market is sorting out losers and some are cashing in profits. But the economy's fundamentals are about to wash over this. We are offering 3-5k referral bonuses for skilled engineers at my company. We. Simply. Can't. Find. Them. But hey, it's only San Diego so nobody wants to live here right.....?

Despite wage stagnation pent up demand for skilled labor is going to force major corporations to finally blink and start upping their pay. Wages --->Consumer Spending---->low gas prices---->more consumer spending...

Many think that the sharp drop in oil and other commodities cannot be explained away as over-supply in an otherwise healthy global economy. There is another school of thought that says lower commodity pricing indicates a broad-based drop in consumer demand that hasn't yet revealed itself in other indices. I think the recent market volatility is driven by these competing viewpoints about the cause and effect of lower commodity prices, especially oil, and how this plays out in the coming months and years. So, for now, it's just the typical volatility as the markets try to figure out their new trajectory based on this new information. Personally, I have no idea when or which direction, nor will I take any drastic action as a result.

Regarding wages, someone mentioned in another thread that we are in the early/middle stages of a global wage equalization process that could take decades to complete. I agree with this. When Megacorp can't find the engineers they need in the U.S., they will open "engineering design centers" in India and China, where supply is high and wages are low, but increasing 15% per year. Offshoring is no longer limited to manufacturing and call centers. Eventually, wages will be based on education, skill, productivity, creativity, results, etc... not what country you live in. So, hopefully I'm wrong, but I don't realistically expect major corporations in the U.S. and Europe to start increasing real wages for a very long time.
 
Agreed. Market goes up, market goes down. Just wanted to see some discussion. Always fascinates me to read the common sense comments that prevails on this blog.


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You are just looking for some "common sense"?

How about - this doesn't come close to a correction. And you can never tell when one has "started".

Let the S&P500 drop below [-]1150[/-] 1850 and then maybe I'll wake up.

What we have is increased volatility.

And until oil stops dropping and stabilizes, we'll probably have this kind of volatility. Can't be too much longer - maybe a couple more months.

Of course other things may cause increased volatility after that - you never know.
 
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Lets say this correction then turns into a Bear market. One is bound to come sometime and this is as good as any time. Lets say its a semi-mild one that goes down 22%.

What I'm wondering is how fast we come out of it. Will it take 5 years like the Great Recession? Or will the market turn around quickly and hit new highs in 1-2 years?
 
I lived in both SD and Texas and agree with both of you that all should stay away from both.

Come to Louisiana! Laissez les bons temps rouler, and spend all your money here. We need it. :D

Portland, Seattle, Denver, greater Baltimore, New Orleans(30 yrs.), San Diego, Reno, Port Aransas.

Kansas City is the place. I got silly neighbors who go to Texas and actually like being called winter Texans.

So chickenhearted me - take part of RMD from accounts first part of January and then the rest in Feb. Do I believe in the January effect/predictor - welll remember back in the day before 'born again indexing' I often would emit a pssst Wellesley. :LOL:

heh heh heh - now commiting the ultimate sin unclemicks yankee red jambalaya - Bickelmeyers smoked sausage, Costco shrimp, holy trinity, Uncle Ben's and Pace picante instead of diced or pinced tomato. :facepalm: ;) :greetings10:

ok, ok so we'll hit Port Aransas, Corpus and Mission for a few weeks in Feb and may or may not visit relatives in San Diego.
 
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Nah, if I recall correctly, that long-awaited correction happened back in September/October, didn't it? :D
 
San Diego is beautiful.

Way better than Texas......

Texas is beautiful. Way better than Tijuana.

Back to OP, it's traders market for now. Once it drops another 7-8% from today's close, we can call it a small correction. Move on, folks. Nothing to see here ... yet.
 
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Yes it's really a terrible place. We have earthquakes, droughts, even hail sometimes, the traffic is awful and too much time at the beach can give you skin cancer. You want to die of that? Crowds are terrible and people are nasty. Please everyone stay away.

Now, if I was suspicious, I'd think you were like REWahoo on Texas.:D While lots of people live there and even seem to be thriving, he is doing is best to keep it all to himself as best he can.
 
If this downturn is a correction, nobody has told the Real Estate Investment Trust stocks. They have held up beautifully through this.
 
Portland, Seattle, Denver, greater Baltimore, New Orleans(30 yrs.), San Diego, Reno, Port Aransas.

Kansas City is the place. I got silly neighbors who go to Texas and actually like being called winter Texans.

So chickenhearted me - take part of RMD from accounts first part of January and then the rest in Feb. Do I believe in the January effect/predictor - welll remember back in the day before 'born again indexing' I often would emit a pssst Wellesley. :LOL:

heh heh heh - now commiting the ultimate sin unclemicks yankee red jambalaya - Bickelmeyers smoked sausage, Costco shrimp, holy trinity, Uncle Ben's and Pace picante instead of diced or pinced tomato. :facepalm: ;) :greetings10:

ok, ok so we'll hit Port Aransas, Corpus and Mission for a few weeks in Feb and may or may not visit relatives in San Diego.

Seriously? You're coming to Mission, TX?

What - are you on a birding trip or something?
 
If this downturn is a correction, nobody has told the Real Estate Investment Trust stocks. They have held up beautifully through this.

They're partying on the drop in interest rates. But after a while they'll probably get spooked too as credit crises are not good for REITs.
 
They're partying on the drop in interest rates. But after a while they'll probably get spooked too as credit crises are not good for REITs.
Oh, if this turns into a big correction, yes REITS will feel the pain at some point.
 
Is it in the higher elevation area? We saw some snow along Highway 15 from Temecula toward Riverside in late December last year.


About 1000 ft. We are a bit north of Temecula but not up in the hills. We got a good share nevertheless!
 
Now, if I was suspicious, I'd think you were like REWahoo on Texas.:D While lots of people live there and even seem to be thriving, he is doing is best to keep it all to himself as best he can.

And and a couple hours ago one of those silly Winter Texans brought by some fresh squeezed OJ from those they bought back from Mission TX yesterday.

heh heh heh - love the pop ups for hot rod Polaris snowmobiles- on my Chrome browser. :rolleyes:
 
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