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Old 01-15-2015, 10:31 AM   #21
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Not knowing the answer to this question is precisely the reason I dollar cost average at all times.
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Old 01-15-2015, 10:34 AM   #22
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Are you trying to tempt me? If so, it's not working. I don't have any desire to live in San Diego.
I already live in San Diego, and I'm not tempted!
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Old 01-15-2015, 11:17 AM   #23
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Yes it's really a terrible place. We have earthquakes, droughts, even hail sometimes, the traffic is awful and too much time at the beach can give you skin cancer. You want to die of that? Crowds are terrible and people are nasty. Please everyone stay away.

ImageUploadedByEarly Retirement Forum1421342171.826556.jpgAnd snow! Don't forget the great blizzard of 2015!!
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Old 01-15-2015, 11:18 AM   #24
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Yes it's really a terrible place. We have earthquakes, droughts, even hail sometimes, the traffic is awful and too much time at the beach can give you skin cancer. You want to die of that? Crowds are terrible and people are nasty. Please everyone stay away.
It does not deter people flocking into the area.
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Old 01-15-2015, 11:22 AM   #25
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Attachment 20928And snow! Don't forget the great blizzard of 2015!!
I think the snow fell only in the high desert area.
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Old 01-15-2015, 11:29 AM   #26
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...I think all this volatility is mostly oil driven. The market is sorting out losers and some are cashing in profits. But the economy's fundamentals are about to wash over this. We are offering 3-5k referral bonuses for skilled engineers at my company. We. Simply. Can't. Find. Them. But hey, it's only San Diego so nobody wants to live here right.....?

Despite wage stagnation pent up demand for skilled labor is going to force major corporations to finally blink and start upping their pay. Wages --->Consumer Spending---->low gas prices---->more consumer spending...
Many think that the sharp drop in oil and other commodities cannot be explained away as over-supply in an otherwise healthy global economy. There is another school of thought that says lower commodity pricing indicates a broad-based drop in consumer demand that hasn't yet revealed itself in other indices. I think the recent market volatility is driven by these competing viewpoints about the cause and effect of lower commodity prices, especially oil, and how this plays out in the coming months and years. So, for now, it's just the typical volatility as the markets try to figure out their new trajectory based on this new information. Personally, I have no idea when or which direction, nor will I take any drastic action as a result.

Regarding wages, someone mentioned in another thread that we are in the early/middle stages of a global wage equalization process that could take decades to complete. I agree with this. When Megacorp can't find the engineers they need in the U.S., they will open "engineering design centers" in India and China, where supply is high and wages are low, but increasing 15% per year. Offshoring is no longer limited to manufacturing and call centers. Eventually, wages will be based on education, skill, productivity, creativity, results, etc... not what country you live in. So, hopefully I'm wrong, but I don't realistically expect major corporations in the U.S. and Europe to start increasing real wages for a very long time.
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Old 01-15-2015, 11:56 AM   #27
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Agreed. Market goes up, market goes down. Just wanted to see some discussion. Always fascinates me to read the common sense comments that prevails on this blog.


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You are just looking for some "common sense"?

How about - this doesn't come close to a correction. And you can never tell when one has "started".

Let the S&P500 drop below 1150 1850 and then maybe I'll wake up.

What we have is increased volatility.

And until oil stops dropping and stabilizes, we'll probably have this kind of volatility. Can't be too much longer - maybe a couple more months.

Of course other things may cause increased volatility after that - you never know.
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Old 01-15-2015, 11:58 AM   #28
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San Diego is beautiful.

Way better than Texas......
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Old 01-15-2015, 12:12 PM   #29
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I don't have any desire to live in San Diego.
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San Diego is beautiful.

Way better than Texas......
I lived in both SD and Texas and agree with both of you that all should stay away from both.

Come to Louisiana! Laissez les bons temps rouler, and spend all your money here. We need it.
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Old 01-15-2015, 12:43 PM   #30
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Lets say this correction then turns into a Bear market. One is bound to come sometime and this is as good as any time. Lets say its a semi-mild one that goes down 22%.

What I'm wondering is how fast we come out of it. Will it take 5 years like the Great Recession? Or will the market turn around quickly and hit new highs in 1-2 years?
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Old 01-15-2015, 01:34 PM   #31
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I lived in both SD and Texas and agree with both of you that all should stay away from both.

Come to Louisiana! Laissez les bons temps rouler, and spend all your money here. We need it.
Portland, Seattle, Denver, greater Baltimore, New Orleans(30 yrs.), San Diego, Reno, Port Aransas.

Kansas City is the place. I got silly neighbors who go to Texas and actually like being called winter Texans.

So chickenhearted me - take part of RMD from accounts first part of January and then the rest in Feb. Do I believe in the January effect/predictor - welll remember back in the day before 'born again indexing' I often would emit a pssst Wellesley.

heh heh heh - now commiting the ultimate sin unclemicks yankee red jambalaya - Bickelmeyers smoked sausage, Costco shrimp, holy trinity, Uncle Ben's and Pace picante instead of diced or pinced tomato.

ok, ok so we'll hit Port Aransas, Corpus and Mission for a few weeks in Feb and may or may not visit relatives in San Diego.
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Old 01-15-2015, 01:36 PM   #32
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Nah, if I recall correctly, that long-awaited correction happened back in September/October, didn't it?
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Old 01-15-2015, 03:32 PM   #33
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San Diego is beautiful.

Way better than Texas......
Texas is beautiful. Way better than Tijuana.

Back to OP, it's traders market for now. Once it drops another 7-8% from today's close, we can call it a small correction. Move on, folks. Nothing to see here ... yet.
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Old 01-15-2015, 03:44 PM   #34
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Yes it's really a terrible place. We have earthquakes, droughts, even hail sometimes, the traffic is awful and too much time at the beach can give you skin cancer. You want to die of that? Crowds are terrible and people are nasty. Please everyone stay away.
Now, if I was suspicious, I'd think you were like REWahoo on Texas. While lots of people live there and even seem to be thriving, he is doing is best to keep it all to himself as best he can.
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Old 01-15-2015, 04:43 PM   #35
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If this downturn is a correction, nobody has told the Real Estate Investment Trust stocks. They have held up beautifully through this.
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Old 01-15-2015, 04:47 PM   #36
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Portland, Seattle, Denver, greater Baltimore, New Orleans(30 yrs.), San Diego, Reno, Port Aransas.

Kansas City is the place. I got silly neighbors who go to Texas and actually like being called winter Texans.

So chickenhearted me - take part of RMD from accounts first part of January and then the rest in Feb. Do I believe in the January effect/predictor - welll remember back in the day before 'born again indexing' I often would emit a pssst Wellesley.

heh heh heh - now commiting the ultimate sin unclemicks yankee red jambalaya - Bickelmeyers smoked sausage, Costco shrimp, holy trinity, Uncle Ben's and Pace picante instead of diced or pinced tomato.

ok, ok so we'll hit Port Aransas, Corpus and Mission for a few weeks in Feb and may or may not visit relatives in San Diego.
Seriously? You're coming to Mission, TX?

What - are you on a birding trip or something?
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Old 01-15-2015, 04:50 PM   #37
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If this downturn is a correction, nobody has told the Real Estate Investment Trust stocks. They have held up beautifully through this.
They're partying on the drop in interest rates. But after a while they'll probably get spooked too as credit crises are not good for REITs.
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Old 01-15-2015, 05:00 PM   #38
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Let the S&P500 drop below 1150 and then maybe I'll wake up.
That would wake everyone up!
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Old 01-15-2015, 05:02 PM   #39
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They're partying on the drop in interest rates. But after a while they'll probably get spooked too as credit crises are not good for REITs.
Oh, if this turns into a big correction, yes REITS will feel the pain at some point.
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Old 01-15-2015, 05:04 PM   #40
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That would wake everyone up!
Dang typos! I meant 1850.
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