Looks like the Party is over

[W2R]

Excellent - thanks! Here's a deal: if I happen to be in that great city and on e-r.org, I'll temporarily switch to one of those tasty things for my icon. Until then, I'll stay somewhere over the rainbow.

That's OK, I'll probably use them as avatars from time to time. Until then, tell you what, you can just keep them in a file and peek at them furtively whenever you have an overwhelming desire for a really good beignet.

I like your over the rainbow avatar and with your creativity and imagination, it suits your personality nicely.

 

[jkern]

Won't getting back in now, after the market has dropped, BE market timing?

Actually I'm just rolling over a 403b to a IRA. That involves selling everything and taking 2 to 3 weeks to get the money into the IRA.

 

[steelyman]

Thank you. I'm blushing. Cold and blushing!

I already squirreled away those slices of heaven in a file. There's a reason why GD Yankees look away south!

 

[Running_Man]

Not to worry Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase, he who led Chase bought out Bear Sterns in 2008 and then later in the year called all his political pals, admitting he made multiple calls to the Fed and Treasury and they agreed to do everything they could and told them to do anything to save the banks and his company. Since June 2011, using its shareholders’ money, JPMorgan Chase has paid more than $35.2 billion in fines and penalties related to various scandals, frauds, and mistakes that came to light because of the financial crisis. He said today "we could be wrong about everything, but we don't cut in run in good times or bad times and if we lose money so be it" talking about the oil economy and overseas markets, but I think the economy and the stock market are in good shape.

So if you are bullish you have this financial genius on the bull side, saying even if they lose money it doesn't matter (of course if it blows up he is expecting no doubt the FED to buy all those bad loans).

Having listened to him today, I would immediately sell any shares in Chase if I had owned them..

 

[grasshopper]

Grasshoppers 10 years of ER

 

[Live And Learn]

Grasshopper, that's a very comforting chart for us new ER's. Would you mind sharing your initial WR (2006 spend over Jan 2006 investible assets). Thanks for posting

 

[Christine]

 

[eytonxav]

Just as long as we stay away from the Washington Monument

 

[Katsmeow]

Actually, the recent drops in the market are a huge relief to me. FINALLY.

We all knew it was coming eventually (markets go up, then down, then back etc). The doom-n-gloomers have been telling us this was on the way for about 5 years by now. At least now we won't have to listen to the prophets of doom (well, one could hope that, anyway).

This is how I feel. We have had big withdrawals the last 2 years and will this year (due to kids/college). I have sort of been waiting for the market to go down the entire time. And, now, it seems a relief to think it is actually here. I'm not exactly happy about it and it would have been nice for it to wait until next year when we will have more typical withdrawals, but I'm OK to hopefully get it out of the way.

3 years ago, I put some money out of my regular 55/45 portfolio to help pay for these increased withdrawals. So I really don't have to withdraw anything from equities this year at all. That said, if I don't end up withdrawing anything from equities due to a down market I could end up out of balance with equities too high (because I don't want to sell them in a down market so I am OK with that). Right now I'm at 53/47.

 

[shasta]

If equities drop enough that my bond AA goes 5% out of range I'll rebalance and buy some more stocks from cash / bond sales.

I thought today might be the day to make the appointment for tomorrow, but now seems unsure.

ERed in 2013 at age 38 - so far so good.

 

[audreyh1]

I have something I want to tax loss harvest, but I'm still waiting for more downside.

I'm really waiting until oil stops going down, and it's still going down fast. Now down to $26 and change.

 

[kgtest]

Right now, I am only 30% exposed in the market so I was outside when the cops arrived to the party. However, based on past experience with Parties that go very badly, I should slip away into the bushes while the paddy wagon rounds up party leaders. My wife and I have income from consulting deals for 2016. But, if we go into a recession some of that might go away in 2017. So, I am thinking of lightening up some more during the short rally's in 2016 and then probably going back in slowly in 2017. Of course, that may have to adjusted depending on the outcome of the elections.

How are some of the experienced longer term (retired 10 years or more) retirees viewing this situation?

ROFL! Reminds me of a time I was at a party here in the Midwest. We had got about 3 feet of fresh snow and my friends parents were out of town. It was a chilly night when the boys showed up to police...some of the partygoer's chose to ride it out a block away in the 3-4 foot snow berms. I believe I hid in a closet and was quick to rejoin the party once they left.

I don't recommend waiting it out in the snow...those saps looked wet, cold and miserable when they came back to the party.

 

[GTFan]

In reality, this has the potential to make the USA the big winner. China is struggling. Russia will be crippled badly. The USA has a strong oil and gas industry but not nearly as dependent on them than places like Russia or the Middle East. The USA can weather a period of $20 oil. Russia can't. Saudi and Iran, among others, can't for long.

The big problem with Russia getting hit bad by oil is the potential for foreign adventuring out of desperation to distract attention. How many times have we seen this in the past? Plenty, and Syria may just be the start.

Not being alarmist here, just looking at how things have gone historically. Rise of nationalism with Russians blindly following thugs like Putin because he's a strongman, resulting in more cold and hot war stuff. Not so good for the markets (or the US), potentially, but maybe for the defense industry.

 

[audreyh1]

The big problem with Russia getting hit bad by oil is the potential for foreign adventuring out of desperation to distract attention. How many times have we seen this in the past? Plenty, and Syria may just be the start.

Not being alarmist here, just looking at how things have gone historically. Rise of nationalism with Russians blindly following thugs like Putin because he's a strongman, resulting in more cold and hot war stuff. Not so good for the markets (or the US), potentially, but maybe for the defense industry.

Except that Putin was causing a lot of trouble over a year ago when oil prices were at a peak. Things have quieted way down since the oil drop.

 

[NYEXPAT]

I am 80% cash and 20% equities with a few % of Muni's and Gold in the mix. I was 90% cash until the S&P broke 1900 then bought Japan and Germany ETF's and a bit of the S&P looking for a bounce. Rather then fight oil, I plan to hedge myself in if we can get a 1/2 way decent rally tomorrow. Once oil bottoms in April (best guess) I will go back to 100% equities (sin Gold).

 

[VFK57]

Except that Putin was causing a lot of trouble over a year ago when oil prices were at a peak. Things have quieted way down since the oil drop.

I see connection in oil prices drop and Putin entrance into Syria conflict, like he did not have full engagement in Ukraine. I am sure that Putin does not care a lot about Assad. Can he intervene in Yemen if oil drops more?

 

[RetiredGypsy]

Apparently late comers are trying to sneak in past the bouncers past last call, because everything of mine finished up today. I wouldn't mind if people kept leaving the party until the end of the month when I could figure out how to make this analogy work better for buying more...beer? Yes. Discounted beer. That works nicely.

 

[HFWR]

Syria has been allied with Russia as far back as I can remember, and by some accounts, Putin is not bombing ISIS, but is bombing anti-Assad rebels. But I doubt that even Putin is nutty enough to intervene in Yemen...

Somehow, we need to get a billion or so Chinese and Indian peasants buying iPhones and SUVs. That'll kick up demand!

 

[VFK57]

Syria has been allied with Russia as far back as I can remember, and by some accounts, Putin is not bombing ISIS, but is bombing anti-Assad rebels. But I doubt that even Putin is nutty enough to intervene in Yemen...

Somehow, we need to get a billion or so Chinese and Indian peasants buying iPhones and SUVs. That'll kick up demand!

Modern proxy wars does not require direct intervention. He can quietly ship tactical missiles to Hozies so they could more efficiently attack Saudis. In Syria Putinhe needed to Show the West air force denial that is why he interfered there with S-400 covering large portion of Syria.

 

[RobLJ]

Rebalance

I like to rebalance in late Jan/early Feb and was hoping the market would behave and stay down for a little while. Now I'm only 4% below my target stock allocation. (I usually rebalance if I go 4-5% below or above.)

 

[redduck]

... He can quietly ship tactical missiles to Hozies so they could more efficiently attack Saudis...

I would think that shipping a bunch of tactical missiles would be quite noisy. But, then again, maybe I'm thinking of non-tactical missiles.