If you plan to be living it up (which is also my method of coping with an uncertain future), then why even spend time refining predictions about the future?
That's what I don't get.
If it's more of a hobby or intellectually interesting, then - I guess I can understand that (just barely). But if it is causing a reduction in quality of life today, affecting moods, etc., then I don't understand.<snip>What can I do about it? Not much. I don't see how one can effectively prepare for sudden "black swan" events in one's life, other than making sure you are not wasting your present life.
One technical comment. As historian Ferguson sees these things, a collapse of empire due to debt overhang, etc. would not be black swan events. Collapse is a completely predictable, essentially deterministic event. Perhaps you listened to his speach? He refers to Keynesian endpoints. One is where interest spending on the public debt overtakes defense spending. The final collapse would be when interest spending consumes the entire tax receipts of the government. As a possibly interesting aside, a Texas hedge fund guy named Kyle Bass feels that Japan is already close to this final Keynesian endpoint. What he predicts is that they, (and later on some other governemnts including the US) will be forced to do is restructure their debt.
With respect to one's stance toward new information or differing ideas, you are making a lot of jumps, regarding who I am and how I may interact with other's viewpoints. Although Niall Ferguson has a rather dark outlook on the future of debt laden nations, he is a Glasgow native, graduate of Magdelen College, Cambridge, a chaired professor of history at Harvard University, and a very accomplished speaker. So, I expect some benefit from listening to his views. Overall, I would prefer to expand my outlooks and gather information and well reasoned viewpoints. I am one of those people who prefer learning about something to announcing what I already know or think I know. Everyone has opinions; some of these opinions are well reasoned and considered.
I am also one of those people who is not much bothered by cognitive dissonance. Que será, será. Which doesn't keep me from being interested in ideas about various possible futures. Occasionally I might even come across something which I can use to avoid falling into the barrel of poop that the world is rushing toward. But of course, YMMV, to each his own, horses for courses, etc..
I didn't post this to win over anyone to these ideas, I posted it only in hope of generating intelligent discussion.
Anyway, if you are concerned about my well being, just send donations to Ha%Martha-(my trusted agent in these matters). I will get proper therapy and higher quality meds to deal better with my distress. And thanks!
Ha
