Well, what do you think?

Hey, look at that: 2012 has just about exited the building. Time for a quick update.

A few months ago, perhaps at the behest of you all and your comments, I accelerated the move out of company stock somewhat. I am now taking closer to 5% "off the table" every quarter.

I am (somewhat arbitrarily) projecting the finish line to be some time in the middle of 2016, and the model suggests an exit with about $2.8m post-tax liquid and about .4m pre-tax in an IRA. That's includes all family opex, a fairly aggressive increase in taxes, a home value depreciation of 10%, the frictional costs of the sale and move to our longer-term home, medium underperformance of the business relative to both our historical results and our pipeline projection, and conservative IRR on investments.

I also adjusted the model to a "this really sucks" case as well as a "dream scenario where all the stars align," what I would guess would be give or take 1.5 sigma, and the value at the end fluctuates only about +/-1M. We will have to make a lifestyle adjustment if we end up with a 2m net worth -- our destination has very expensive housing -- but the marginal value of the 4.5m+ outcome is pretty low as well... basically, extra space for capex. You know, Ferraris, airplanes, MacBook Pros, and other material goods of dubious utility. :)

This makes me more comfortable, so I think I'll go to Vegas for the new year. See you all in 2013!
 
Another quarter, another update? Let's see, highlights:

1. Taxes are just going up and up. I actually don't mind paying taxes, but it's disheartening to see the increases arrive so coincident with the handful of my taxpaying years where I will have totally disproportionate income. I ended up paying 39% in 2012 and am projecting a 43% total rate for 2013 if things go as planned. Good grief.

2. Company valuation has risen sharply. The market is pricing in future growth at an accelerating (dizzying? unjustified?) pace, and that means I should look at divesting my ownership more aggressively. This weekend, I ran the numbers bringing forward all of my exercisable equity and selling as early as possible. Interestingly, it only makes about a 6% difference in net worth at the end of 2016 when the simulation stops, even though it jacks up my taxes. We have a few months to decide whether to make a change, but I think we'll almost certainly do this.

See you in the summer.
 
What do you think will have changed by next summer ? I hope your wife is doing better.

Thank you; she is stable and the issues seem to be well-managed now, for which we are very thankful.

Hmm, next summer? 15 months from now the reality will have "converged" the model a lot. It will be clear whether we can proceed with ER or whether we have more work to do. That will be close enough to the end that there won't be much ambiguity. I look forward to it, mostly. :)
 
Happy Fall, everyone.

I'm please to report that things are going swimmingly.

Stock market has rocketed on up, and company stock has done markedly better. In fact, I now think it is priced close to accurately with respect to my assessment of growth expectation. So, I have exercised and sold almost all of my shares as a result. See, I listen to you guys...

Way-too-expensive home is now showing a significant, leveraged, paper gain due to the massive run-up in housing prices in this area in the last year. Let's hope it sticks around. That would be a really lucky bonus.

We have managed to lower some expenses and get ourselves down to about a 130k/year run rate. My budget still says we'll do 55k/year in ER, not including housing, if we're careful.

My taxes are really complicated to forecast. Estimated payments, annualization, multiple states, AMT, safe harbors, and more. I have opened a Fidelity DAF to load up some future charitable giving into these next few peak-tax years. (Effective tax rate this year is 46%. Thank you, please drive through.)

Currently plan is that we'll call it a day in mid-2015 with about 3M after-tax and .5M in pre-tax savings. I think there is a decent chance I'll end up with some kind of part-time work staying on with the company after that, one or two days a week maybe. That would preserve the long tail of my option grants and maybe generate another 800k before tax over a few years.

See you in 2014!
 
Hello there, 2014.

I just wanted to post a quick update for those playing along at home. There have been four meaningful (financial) changes over the last nine months.

(a) Real estate in our super-expensive area has really gone off the rails, I guess in a good way. We live in one of the best cities for commuting, and it has some of the best schools. Ironically, we won't get to take advantage of those schools if we hold to plan, but they sure help with home appreciation! I believe we would net 700k if we sold today, which makes us look like geniuses for buying two years ago instead of renting. Of course, past performance and guarantees and all...

(b) We are eager to begin our move back home to be near the mountains we love. We are thinking we may accelerate the move, based on gradual shifts in my job responsibilities, potential lengthy periods to find a home or build one, and the big spike up in RE value already mentioned. The downside would be that I would have increased air commuting as long as I kept trying to do my job. Maybe that is a reasonable price to pay. (The actual price to "pay," in lower state income and property taxes, is about $85,000 per annum.)

(c) Growth stocks have been decimated in the last few months, so my income projections are, too. Welcome to the game! However, as the timeframe shortens, I am dialing out some of the conservatism in my model. Combined with the increased home value, I think we end up still around 3.0/0.5m if I stick with it for another 16 months. That should be enough for us.

(d) My side hobby generated outsize profits in the last six months, so I bought a completely unreasonable vehicle. :rolleyes: My wife says it is my mid-life crisis purchase, but I reminded her that that one will come in my late 30's! (I admit, however, that I hide this thing in the garage and try not to drive it when our super nice neighbors are around. It's such an ostentacious consumption item... sigh.)


If, in fact, we do close in on our ER plans later this year, I expect I will update this thread a little more frequently leading up to the transition. I am really looking forward to being able to work on a few of my own projects in a more serious, focused way!

Bye for now.
 
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Hello there, 2014.







(c) Growth stocks have been decimated in the last few months, so my income projections are too.






Bye for now.


You must be in some real go-go type stocks with no real earnings, i.e. TWTR, TSLA, AMZN, LNKD, P. The rest of the market has not faired badly thus far 2014.
 
You must be in some real go-go type stocks with no real earnings, i.e. TWTR, TSLA, AMZN, LNKD, P. The rest of the market has not faired badly thus far 2014.

My portfolio is in "every" stock, but I also have a huge concentration of company stock options that drives most of my future compensation, and my company sort of falls into that "go-go" category, yes.
 
Whoa, happy December, ER forum.

Let's see, where are we?

First, we returned to our "home" after finding a great house we purchased from a friend. Did an all-cash transaction with no agents: heaven. And I'm proud to report that our fourth home is the least expensive one so far. :D

Second, we will sell our expensive California house in the springtime when the market is at its warmest (hopefully). Until then, there is a series of small touch-ups and improvements we need to make to it, anyway, so that it is in unobjectionably perfect condition.

Finally, my current plan is to log out of my work in February. That gives me enough time to max one more year of retirement contributions, hand over responsibilities to coworkers, and most importantly shift a slug of stock option gains into the new tax year instead of loading them into 2014.

Right now my model says we can then retire with a 3.4% wr on investment assets, should we choose. I'm very comfortable with 4.0%, actually, so this is a good extra margin of safety. In fact, the uncertainty in the sale price of our old home could swing that to as low as 2.9%, but we'll stay conservative there until the chicks hatch.

We have some additional safety factors as well: SS, ACA subsidies, depreciating toys, and home equity are not factored into the plan. Also, the budget includes roughly 30% "fun" expenses -- but I have raised the budget a good bit relative to the numbers I was using earlier. Finally, a lump sum roughly equal to 25% of the new house's purchase price is budgeted for remodeling, but we may choose to invest sweat or skip some nice-to-have's. We certainly won't be able to do that much stuff in the first year anyway... we have to live here, after all.

A very likely outcome is that I ease into "working" on several other areas of interest, one or more of which is bound to create some income one day. Because our kid is not yet school age, though, these next few years offer a degree of flexibility that we won't have once kindergarten comes around... so we may want to make travel hay while the sun shines?

Toughest financial call left for this year is whether to send more funds to the DAF. Tax rate will be 1/3 lower next year, and then close to 0% in subsequent years if no earned income. Per the above, we probably will have more than we need in savings. On the other hand, I would like a bigger portion of my charitable giving to be in the form of time rather than dollars going forward, so that would argue against committing too much away just for the tax benefit.

It's likely that by the next update I will be RE in some form, how about that? Can't wait! See you then.
 
Hey, I predicted something, and I was right for once. I'm posting this on the first day of the rest of life, a.k.a. ER. Whoohoo!

I stuck around for a couple extra months, mostly to help smooth over the transition a little bit more at work, but I also bagged an extra good little chunk of stock compensation for holding out through March. Can't complain about that. I had a ton of vacation time to use up as well, so I only kind of half-worked anyway. :)

Totally by coincidence, our old house closed today as well, injecting a lot of dough into our checking account for a few short hours, until I can move it into equities tomorrow. I kind of like making a late night run to the ATM and getting a receipt with all those digits on it, but it is a guilty pleasure. I would only rub it in with you guys, ha ha!

Our house sold for above my estimate, and my model suggests our retirement wr will be 3.1% on investment assets, or 2.6% on total assets. We have a 75/25 split in post/pretax savings.

We're going to take a year and travel the country while camping with a young child, or at least that's the theory. The great thing about this plan is that in four months when we're totally sick of being cooped up together all day in some random national park, we can come home and go back to being normal. :)

I think my pace of updates will slow now, at least as long as I stay retired and have no interesting financial things to journal. I'll gladly respond if anyone has questions, but otherwise I'll probably just give a quick update once a year or so.

I've been on this forum for 9 years, and it took that long to get to this point. I've really enjoyed all the conversation over that near-decade. See you in the next one.
 
Well, you've been here for nine years, and I just joined on here, but congratulations.
I have not read your story yet, but I can see you put in some extra time ... and it sounds as if you are almost ready to hit the road.....
You've planned for a long time... must feel great.
 
Well, you've been here for nine years, and I just joined on here, but congratulations.
I have not read your story yet, but I can see you put in some extra time ... and it sounds as if you are almost ready to hit the road.....
You've planned for a long time... must feel great.

Thanks, Eileen, and welcome to the forum. It does feel pretty great!
 
Congrats Symbiotic! Very motivational to read about your successes at a young age. I'm looking forward to hearing more about your ER adventures.

I'm curious, did you have to walk away from unvested options? How did/does that feel? I ask because it's one issue I'll need to deal with when I pull the ripcord.


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Congratulations, I especially enjoy reading the threads where people have posted over time and we can see their changes in plans, successes and, hopefully, a good outcome. Enjoy your travel and keep us posted on "your next stage" when you can!
 
Thank you both. I will be sure to keep you all updated.

Yes, I did have to walk away from a lot of stock-based comp (some options, some in other forms). Also, I made my management aware of my exit plan about six months ago, at roughly the time when annual grants are issued, and so that meant I did not receive any new grants during the refresh -- effectively locking in a pay cut over time, basically.

As it happens, I left roughly my whole net worth, albeit pretax, on the table. Wouldn't have it any other way. Um, yeah... :)
 
That was nice of you to let management know 6 months ahead of time. Did they at least give you a little more cash compensation in lieu of the stock grant? Was there any advantage to you in giving them that much notice or did you just feel it was the right thing to do?

Personally, I'm not going to say anything until I'm ready to be shown the door. I feel like a large part of our bonus is just as much about what they think you'll do for them next year as it is what you accomplished last year.


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That was nice of you to let management know 6 months ahead of time. Did they at least give you a little more cash compensation in lieu of the stock grant? Was there any advantage to you in giving them that much notice or did you just feel it was the right thing to do?

Personally, I'm not going to say anything until I'm ready to be shown the door. I feel like a large part of our bonus is just as much about what they think you'll do for them next year as it is what you accomplished last year.

No, no additional cash really. Stock grants at my company follow a fairly traditional four year vesting period with a one year cliff, so any grant would have had no impact in the coming six months anyway. Moreover, because I still had years of previous grants flowing in, even at the one year point it woudl not have made a gigantic difference. My comp plan had a lot of inertia (for better and worse).

I did sort of get automatic "consideration" in the sense that I stopped taking on new relationships (and the work each would entail) over that period of time. So, by the end, my calendar was much more open and my schedule was quite relaxed.

I reported to the CEO, who is also a personal friend. I'd actually considered leaving a few years back, and he talked me into staying another few years. So it has been an fairly extended period of waffling on my part. And, yes, it was just the right thing to do in my case. I had a high visibility role in our company and held many key relationships with many of our customers. Those needed to be transitioned smoothly for the good of all involved.

But, making a high integrity exit was always non-negotiable for me. I like to sleep at night, and it's a small world anyway. Who knows, maybe I'll be back there next year, begging for my job back. :)

If I were in your industry with its cut-throat incentive plans, I'm sure I would feel a lot like you describe, needing to protect my earnings by always signaling faithfulness. I'm not surprised at all that the bonus is thought of at least partly as a down payment on future performance. There are times that I wish our plan worked like that, because I think it aligns better with certain roles we have. But I'm going to let somebody else worry about that. :D
 
Hi Symbiotic, how has your first year of retirement been? I hope it was everything you thought it would be and more. Any words of wisdom for those of us looking to take the plunge?


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Hi Symbiotic, how has your first year of retirement been? I hope it was everything you thought it would be and more. Any words of wisdom for those of us looking to take the plunge?

What great questions, and also a wonderful impetus for getting back to this thread and updating it.

Quick summary: I can't believe it's been a year!

Shortly after I posted above, we took off on an eight-month extended road trip. We visited a lot of family and friends and camped the whole way. We planned our trip to have us home mid-fall, so our daughter could go back to the pre-K class that she loves for the winter months. We are returning for a mini version of our trip this summer, and then the kind of school you can go to jail for not sending your kid to starts in August. :)

The trip has had several positive effects with respect to ER. First, I think it created a nice, hard separation between work and not work. Most of my time in the last year has been spent making fires and navigating and hanging out with the family, not sitting around at home wondering what to do. There's been no shortage of things to do.

Second, it feels like a natural amount of time to take off if I wanted to back to w*rk. I might, and I've always felt that way. In some sense, it's kind of like an extended sabbatical.

Third, because we broke the trip up into two chunks, I've had a five-month stretch at home where I've been able to work on other things but have NOT really had the chance to consider doing anything "big", including things that look like w*rk. And because we recently moved to this house, we have a long list of significant remodeling projects that I've been able to spend a bunch of time on.

I have picked up a variation on an old hobby, and it looks like it will produce some SE income for 2016. But it is just a game. :)

I'm rambling, but I'll try to sum things up: emotionally, I feel great and totally at ease just being a slacker still.

Psychologically, I mostly feel great, but I do long for the camaraderie and intensity of business. I loved the kind of social pressure to perform that I had when I was working -- indeed, I think it was one of the things that made me successful, internally "competing" to exceed my peers' expectations. I don't have that at home with any of my solo projects at this point.

Physically, I'm in better shape and eating better. I have total flexibility to control diet now, and I like to cook, and I'm slowly doing better at both.

Financially, we seem to be in the doldrums. Basically nothing has changed, except I understand the ACA a lot better. We're still almost completely in stock, and our WR is about the same, and I basically look at it each day but never take any action. It is boring in a great way.

I'm about 90% sure I'll want to take up some longer-term avocation once we finish our giant road trip and settle into a fairly traditional small-city schoolkid life. I am still constantly pestered by recruiters and friends about other opportunities, which on the one hand is flattering but on the other may not be the way I want to go. I have decided, for the most part, to defer all serious thinking about this subject until later this year. But sleeping in 'til lunch and traipsing around the house in fuzzy slippers for the rest of the day is likely not something you'll find me doing in 2017. ;)

There ya have it. Oh, and one of the very few things I've put on my calendar is a reminder to update this thread in six months' time!
 
Congrats, Symbiotic. I just went back and read your old posts.

First, hope your wife's health is still holding up well.

How did you do the road trip? Preplan it or just go? Via car/suv or camper?

The latter half of your post I found interesting. At our younger ages (I'm 44), the feeling of walking away is nice but I think finding some "purpose" will be important for long term happiness. That can take on many forms and not necessarily mean w*rk. Also, once your child is in school, you will likely need to be anchored somewhere. Perpetual travel would be nice and is technically possible, but few undertake that adventure.

I took a multi-month sabbatical recently and really enjoyed it. But, I also looked forward to re-engaging. I am now PT, for now. I'm thinking 1-2 more years (uh oh...OMY syndrome). Although our assets are outstanding....firecalc gives 100% with $240k+ spending...the peace of mind of a "paycheck" is nice as I ease into ER.

I'm curious as to your car lust - I tend to be the same. What did you splurge on?

Cheers!
 
Symbiotic, thanks for the update. I appreciate you breaking down how you're doing into the psychological, financial and physical aspects. Great to see you're enjoying yourself and looking forward to your next post.


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