Poll - What are Your Paper Losses?

How much are your paper losses?

  • $0 - $50,000

    Votes: 35 13.2%

  • $50,0000 - $100,000

    Votes: 26 9.8%

  • $100,000 - $250,000

    Votes: 66 24.8%

  • $250,000 - $500,000

    Votes: 68 25.6%

  • $500,00 - $1,000,000

    Votes: 36 13.5%

  • Over $1,000,000

    Votes: 23 8.6%

  • I made money

    Votes: 12 4.5%
  • Total voters
    266
donheff said:
Helena. You seem to be gloating that you went to cash. I assume you will stay in cash for the long haul. Otherwise your cautionary warnings make no sense. I chose diversification in the hope that I can leave something to my kids. I still do although I could be terribly wrong about that. Are you well covered with inflation protected securities? How do you fare if high or hyper-inflation sets in?
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Reminds me of my Sister who used to call back in the day and mention 'her condolences in passing conversion how the Saint's lost again and oh BTW the Pat's won.'

The she fell for Brett - who later retired and then recanted and ended up with the Jet's.

And I realized - hey - maybe the Pat's are a good football team.

A little of this, a little of that - try to stay balanced - what's a 1/4 mil down here, a 1/4 mil down there in market fluctuation as long as you think you have enough cash for your 16th year of ER?

Besides the Saint's may make the Superbowl - next year, just you wait.

heh heh heh - :cool:
 
13 folks in the poll marked $1 million or more........yikes!!
 
Fastfade said:
I know it's at best a guess, but how long do you think it will take for the average 401K loser to recover his original value + inflation?

Since he is quoted as saying "over the next decade" do you think it will take that long?:confused:

A decade is a long time... what are the odds of another melt down during that decade?:confused:
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Because you cited a quote from Buffet's op-ed, whose link I posted, I assume that you are asking me, and will give my 2c answers.

The recovery time would depend on your asset allocation, the type of equities you are holding, and your action in the future. For just a ballpark figure, the market has jumped more than 20%/year in the past. Or it may take a decade. Who knows? Buffet never claimed to know, yet he made that much money. Since I am not that smart, nor that rich (low 7-figure networth), I listen to Buffet more than other "experts".

I have several years of expenses in I-bonds and money market funds to wait out this storm. You can see how other forum members are doing the same. These are people who already ER'ed, and in their 50s like myself.

On the other hand, if I were an 80 yr old, I would probably have my health to worry about, more than my stocks. I would just hold cash and go out to enjoy the time I have left, and turn off CNBC. As it is, I am in my early 50s, and need to grow my money so I can live off it for a couple more decades at least.

About a decade being a long time, I think it depends on your age and your perpective. Looking back, I still remember 9/11 as clear as yesterday, and that's 7 years already. Well, I also remember my first job, and my first home purchase as yesterday too. I would have a larger portfolio, if I knew how to invest in addition to being LBYM then. Lost more than 10 yrs of investment time, hiding my stash under the mattress. Dumb! I couldn't turn back the clock to undo my mistake. So, I try to take the middle road now, and not go hardcore one way or the other.

Just my 2c, as promised.
 
it all depends...

I've lost a ton on paper, but in fact I haven't lost anything unless I need the money, right? Let's say I take the conservative route (as my father did) and put everything in CD's, loaning money to the banks. As long as I don't outlive my money due to inflation and other expenses (medical for instance), I win. Which is to say, don't die before I can spend all my savings. Bottom line, you don't want to live too long.

The other approach is to invest in assets that have value or the hope of future value. Since the world's business is to increase value by increasing earnings, you're betting on a good business plan or the collective wisdom of the world's entrepreneurs. And despite the ebb and flow of the Mr. Market, long-term positive growth should always be the rule. The only way I can lose is by dying too young, before I realize the long-term growth of my investments. That's the bet I'll take every time. Of course there is that little problem about monthly living expenses to contend with when things look bad for the market.

Just keep enough cash on the sidelines to live through the market storms, and sleep soundly. And remember that bargains abound in every down market. And if world currencies become worthless, cash and investments will be the least of our worries. Not even hoarding gold and silver will protect you.
 
Sarah in SC said:
I wanna be on Buffett's team, that is for sure. While my losses are disheartening, one of the primary reasons I spent 3 years studying for the CFP is so I could learn to distance my emotions from the reality of stock market investing. While I don't pretend to know how any specific asset will perform in any specific period, I did get beat to death with how economic cycles work. What I learned is that this, too, shall pass. Well worth the price of admission if it keeps me invested in my future instead of selling out in a panic.
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very well spoken! i'm squarely in agreement with "don't panic".
i had enrolled in an online CFP program when i was still w*rking as an engineer, but had to withdraw for personal reasons. then i FIREd. i still have the CFP training books and i do read them. i don't know if i will return to that 2nd career change. FIREd is too much fun! :D
 
I'm a piker compared to most of you - we're in the 25-50k stock market loss area - a bit tricky to figure since we have been adding to our declining balance as it goes down - think we've lost about 10k of the newer money added since the glory days of last fall. Now real estate losses - i dunno. The gal and i discussed what the different places were worth over a year ago, trying to be very realistic, and haven't changed the values in Quicken since. Just got our property tax statements and the tax man has a better opinion of most of their values than we do. OTH, real estate agents have been pretty pessimistic and the one place that is listed hasn't had a nibble. Rents keep coming in though, so maybe they are like those dividend paying stocks you all like.
 
maddythebeagle said:
forgot the "dont know and dont care" response....;)
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Yep - and every year I make a solemn oath not to watch football till it 'really' counts aka bowl/playoff s near the end of season.

Does not work. Likewise - read the book, did the math, bought the lifecycle fund, have a portfolio with an SEC yield sufficient to provide my retirement.

And then watch the market(and football) - scream and yell, thrill of victory/agony of defeat, laugh, cry - and stay the course, hurry up just stand there while those Vanguard computers rebalance away.

And in the medicine cabinet to keep the hormones under control - I have a few good stocks on the side - in case the urge to 'do something' overwhelms me.

heh heh heh - :D. In theory don't care - in practice another story - and if I croak - the hot rumor is you can't take it with you. I wouldn't want to be bored anyway. :angel:.
 
I like Maddy's response too--it works for things like "how much do I weigh?" too :)
 
NW-Bound said:
Never owned BRK, but I think I will, once this dust settles.
Click to expand...
Sarah in SC said:
I wanna be on Buffett's team, that is for sure.
Click to expand...
You've been watching the stock price over the last year, right? Is there likely to be a better time to buy than this morning?

The quarterly report might be out this weekend but it'll probably come out on Fri 7 Nov after the market close. I'm betting that there'll be decent insurance earnings after a less-than-horrible hurricane season, with the home-building/furnishing businesses continuing to get pounded. And Buffett will recap all the investments that have been made over the last three months or that will be closing in the coming quarter.

Then he'll add more encouraging words about the future of the stock market and Berkshire's businesses. I think the "flight to quality" will begin shortly after the report comes out.

Frankly my biggest concern is that all of these exciting & stimulating equity values will cause the sudden deaths of him, Munger, or Simpson. I can only imagine how the markets would react to the news.

The best news is that the four Berkshire investment "interns" will certainly have had plenty of opportunity this year to show their stock-picking skills...
 
I'll bet none of you included the paper loss from the decrease in the value of your home (zillow.com). I know I didn't.
 
Nords said:
You've been watching the stock price over the last year, right? Is there likely to be a better time to buy than this morning?

.
Click to expand...

When I sold all my US individual holdings I did make an exception and held onto the BRK.B shares that I own. I figure these are special, more like a mutual fund than a share holding. I found myself so emotionally attached to these there was no way I could sell them off.
 
142 people reporting a loss, collectively losses are in the $40-67M range so far (and I think most people didn't include equity loss in their home). That's impressive...

To put things into perspective:
On average, that's at least a $280K loss per respondent reporting a loss. So our average loss is at least thrice the median net worth of American households ($90K as reported BEFORE the housing and market bust). It means that, on average, we are still far wealthier than the average American, and therefore far, far wealthier than the vast majority of people in the world.

Collectively, we probably would still have enough money to buy a small country... I've heard Iceland is going bankrupt so we could get a good deal!
 
I don't even include my home in our net worth (ymmv) let alone in our portfolio (also don't include future SS and uncola-ed pension pension benefits in either--shouldn't we include them too if we're including our homes?)--part of the real estate problem was homes were overvalued so not sure what the "high point" in my home's value would have been anyway. I'm sure it's worth a lot more than what we paid for it three decades ago, so move me down to made money, I guess :)
 
TromboneAl said:
I'll bet none of you included the paper loss from the decrease in the value of your home (zillow.com). I know I didn't.
Click to expand...

Since my personal high was back in 2000, my house is still up in value from then.
 
I am sure those who have their money out of the markets, secure COLA'd pensions, and lifetime medical are also feeling no glee.
Click to expand...

Bestwifeever, that's very charitable of you. I can assure you I would be feeling, if not "glee", something akin to it!

FIREdreamer.. good perspective. That is what I have been trying to keep in mind.
 
tightasadrum said:
I've lost a ton on paper, but in fact I haven't lost anything unless I need the money, right?
Click to expand...

This is often but not always true. Just yesterday the major owners of Buckeye Holdings GP, an MLP holding company announced a buyback. Tehy have p;lenty of shares to make it go through. The price is a small premium over today's very depressed quotes, but a big discount from the price at which many holders bought in.

I didn't hold this, but from time to time it happens to value investors in mid-cap and small cap companies. It happened to me twice in oil and gas in the 80s.

This is particualrly annoying event because it shows that you have picked wisely (else the majority owners wouldn't want it), you were patient, and still you got screwed. Not only that, but the large owners/management are in a postion to help make the price go down so they get better pickings.

There is a lot to be said for buying debt, if you can get it cheaply enough.

Ha
 
I wish I could answer that my paper losses are "Vaster than empires, and more slow" but damn, that was a fast drop.

I can now retire with two dead squirrels and a box of matches.

ta,
mews
 
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