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Old 11-17-2012, 08:38 AM   #41
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9.2% ytd

aa=60/35/5
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Old 11-17-2012, 09:04 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by obgyn65 View Post
I just realized one thing. Do the numbers above also include the amount of money saved this year or just the interest on the total invested assets as of last January ?
The OP asked for 'returns', which means gains/losses net of deposits/withdrawals. We can't know if some people reporting here have followed that definition, unless they specified.

Including deposits/withdrawals, the question should be "How has your net worth changed YTD?" - but that isn't a useful number if you are trying to compare investments, as the OP is.


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Originally Posted by imoldernu View Post
I shouldn't be posting here, because DW and I are ultra risk averse.
I am pleased to read that I am not the only one to be totally risk averse around here.
You should be aware, there is a big difference in age between imoldernu(hint: imoldernu=I'm-Older-Than-You) and obgyn65. Many people would consider his AA to be appropriate for his age, but not for a younger person. Apples-oranges.

-ERD50
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Old 11-17-2012, 09:54 AM   #43
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Per Quicken, YTD return thru 11/16/12 is 9.2 %. I certainly liked the results as of Audreyh1's 9/14 date better - 15.6%. As a side note, I momentarily went over my equity allocation band of 55% back then but being the naturally lazy person I am, decided to wait until it REALLY went over the upper limit. Well, now equities are back down to 54%, safely within my 45-55% band. Back to sleep now I guess.
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Old 11-17-2012, 09:54 AM   #44
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7.7% as of the 16th. (50/27/23 cash). May put 5% of the cash to work over the next 2 months.
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Old 11-17-2012, 10:43 AM   #45
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Below is chart of Year-to-Date (to Nov 17, 2012) returns reported by a number of balanced and target retirement funds. The chart is return versus percentage of fixed income in the funds. Presumably the reported returns assume one held their shares since December 31st of 2011.


So one's return depends on one's allocation to equities and fixed income.

Also one can report returns for one's entire portfolio or just an account. For example, our entire portfolio including any "cash" in money market accounts and sweep accounts has an 8.4% return in 2012 according to MSMoney which uses XIRR() algorithm for a current AA of 55% stocks. But my 401(k) has a return of 9.5% with only 46% stocks. Or my Roth IRA is up 12% with 100% stocks.

These returns are inline with the chart.
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Old 11-17-2012, 11:56 AM   #46
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The OP asked for 'returns', which means gains/losses net of deposits/withdrawals. We can't know if some people reporting here have followed that definition, unless they specified......
+1 I think that "return" is commonly viewed as the internal rate of return that equates the ending portfolio value to the beginning portfolio value +/- cash flows during the period (the XIRR function in Excel). In other words the discount rate that equates the cash flows and ending portfolio value to the beginning portfolio value.
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Old 11-18-2012, 11:00 AM   #47
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According to TSP, my last 12 months return is (as of Oct. 31st) 27.52%. I don't know what it is from 1/1/12 to date. Also, haven't looked in a couple of weeks, but at last glance, Vanguard said wife's rollover IRA was around 8.5% or so, roughly the same for our Roth IRA's.
edit: Vanguard says YTD on our Roth IRA's are currently 7.64%.
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Old 11-18-2012, 04:58 PM   #48
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
The OP asked for 'returns', which means gains/losses net of deposits/withdrawals. We can't know if some people reporting here have followed that definition, unless they specified.

Including deposits/withdrawals, the question should be "How has your net worth changed YTD?" - but that isn't a useful number if you are trying to compare investments, as the OP is.




You should be aware, there is a big difference in age between imoldernu(hint: imoldernu=I'm-Older-Than-You) and obgyn65. Many people would consider his AA to be appropriate for his age, but not for a younger person. Apples-oranges.

-ERD50

imoldernu so sensious up can you get me a beer. ha ha ha
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Old 11-18-2012, 08:05 PM   #49
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As of 10/31/12 - 9.24%
As of 11/16/12 - 7.45% So how low do we go?

I like Vanguard Wellington better. It has only 33% bonds. Bonds can really hurt us next year.
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Old 11-18-2012, 08:22 PM   #50
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In my case it is the internal rate of return on my investment portfolio given the beginning market value, cash flow (additions, withdrawals, interest, dividends, etc) and ending market value; then converted to an annualized rate. It is off the Investment Performance report in Quicken.
I always look at YTD return % of the total portfolio and compare it to S&P 500 index %. Should I annualize it? Is the S&P 500 index YTD % an annualized rate?
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Old 11-18-2012, 08:28 PM   #51
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I always look at YTD return % of the total portfolio and compare it to S&P 500 index %. Should I annualize it? Is the S&P 500 index YTD % an annualized rate?
I would only compare to S&P500 if I had a portfolio of 100% large-cap US stocks. It doesn't make sense to make comparisons to S&P500 if one has bonds or foreign equities or small-cap equities.

The S&P500 index YTD return is not annualized. Think about it: If by Jan 4th the S&P500 was up 1% YTD, then the annualized rate would be 365/4 = 91%.

You should not annualize your YTD return (except on Dec 31st )
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Old 11-18-2012, 09:00 PM   #52
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Old 11-18-2012, 09:06 PM   #53
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9.7% YTD - 9% cash, 38% bonds and CDs, 46% Stocks, and 7% commodities.
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Old 11-19-2012, 11:12 AM   #54
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I would only compare to S&P500 if I had a portfolio of 100% large-cap US stocks. It doesn't make sense to make comparisons to S&P500 if one has bonds or foreign equities or small-cap equities.

The S&P500 index YTD return is not annualized. Think about it: If by Jan 4th the S&P500 was up 1% YTD, then the annualized rate would be 365/4 = 91%.

You should not annualize your YTD return (except on Dec 31st )
That's what I thought, after all it's Year to date %. Main reason why I compare to S&P 500 index is simple. Most of the fund manager try to beat it, so I want to know how am I doing. It also gives me an over bought indicator when the lines cross on my chart.
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Old 11-19-2012, 12:50 PM   #55
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As of today, 10.24% exclusive of contributions. 55% stocks, 25% bonds, 20% cash. Retirement accounts only.
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Old 11-19-2012, 04:43 PM   #56
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11.2....... 60/40 split....index etf's and alot of vwinx.......11.2 is with a .9% today boost.
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Old 11-19-2012, 06:09 PM   #57
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11.2....... 60/40 split....index etf's and alot of vwinx.......11.2 is with a .9% today boost.
Psssssst, Wellesley!

Or, I'm watching George eat at Jerry's house on TV; which is more predictable?
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Old 11-19-2012, 06:25 PM   #58
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Sept 14, 2012 18.15% 65/35
Oct 31, 2012 13.34% 65/35
Nov 19, 2012 11.55% 65/35

I did real good on VYM 25.71% YTD
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Old 11-19-2012, 11:34 PM   #59
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Hi,

Not necessarily a smarter or more experienced < 2c comment:
While a single data point might be interesting, it is definitely not sufficient for your broker vs roll your own decision :-)
As others have noted, precise dates and asset allocation matter so very much. Here are 3 numbers that I could use to describe our taxable account (tax deferred did better (less international), but I don't have the consolidated numbers handy for this post):
(1) YTD 10.9% (no bonds, ~70% international).
(2) YTD 10/31 13.5% as a broker might report because that is the last formal statement and it is better than YTD number
(3) from 1/1/2011 until today is only about 0.3%. There were a number of large dips in 2011, so YTD look much better than real return for the portfolio.

From each of these % one could draw probably incorrect conclusions in that I did about the same, a bit better or a lot worse than your broker. To me, (3) Is actually the most meaningful number and I am quite content :-)

IMHO better questions might be: What is your tolerance for risk? What is your desired allocation? What is the index return for that asset allocation? What are the relative fees (all fees - any front end loads?) of an index vs broker portfolio? What value does your broker provide?

BTW I pay for a financial planner and believe I get value but not in the sense implicit in your original post!
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Old 11-20-2012, 07:39 AM   #60
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I felt like I've taken quite a smack-down these past few weeks, but I just ran the numbers, and it's not quite as bad as I thought. As of yesterday's close, I'm up about 10% for the year. However, I was up about 15% at the end of October, and about 16% at the end of September.
Update...as of yesterday's close, I'm up about 13% for the year. Wheee!

Now, just to clarify, that's my return. Net worth-wise (including additional contributions) I'm up about 17.9%.
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