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SP500 moves off major lows
Old 01-07-2017, 10:23 AM   #1
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SP500 moves off major lows

This is my yearly updated chart. It shows the SP500 after major market lows (see blue line). The market has basically risen for 93 months! One thing this chart shows is that this old bull market is not an anomaly.

I hope forum members have enjoyed the ride so far. FWIW, I'm getting nervous about this market but that is my usual state.

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Old 01-07-2017, 10:51 AM   #2
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Tell me about anxiety. Euro drops like a stone and equity valuations keep going up.

It's a double positive whammy upwards, so I'm now bracing myself for the double whammy downwards ..

In other words, nothing changed
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Old 01-07-2017, 11:01 AM   #3
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Thanks. Your data seems to be primarily from 1970 to current, but 1990 to 2002 data is missing. Why?
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Old 01-07-2017, 11:04 AM   #4
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Am I the only person who can't see the chart?
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Old 01-07-2017, 11:15 AM   #5
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Thanks. Your data seems to be primarily from 1970 to current, but 1990 to 2002 data is missing. Why?
Good question. The 1990's bull market didn't appear to come off a major low that was easy to identify. There was the 1987 crash which was not followed by a recession. I guess I think of declines that are major and caused by recessions as major lows.

Actually my favorite way of charting markets is a decades chart. Using the same data as the above chart but it is continuous from the 1940's. It is basically an SP500 chart (with dividends and inflation adjusted) that is segmented by decades. Here it is:

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Old 01-07-2017, 11:22 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
This is my yearly updated chart. It shows the SP500 after major market lows (see blue line). The market has basically risen for 93 months! One thing this chart shows is that this old bull market is not an anomaly.

I hope forum members have enjoyed the ride so far. FWIW, I'm getting nervous about this market but that is my usual state.

Nice!

Like you, I'm expecting a huge market crash any minute but have been for several years by now. Anyway, the way I deal with that is to position myself better in case it happens, and run "what if" scenarios to prove to myself that it won't mess up my retirement.

I think that lowering my bare bone expenses, and spending the savings on discretionary stuff instead, is always good. Then if/when the market crash happens, it will be easier to cut back on my spending than it might otherwise be.

I'm working on a hypothetical "market crash budget" that is covered almost entirely by various income streams of mine that are not dependent on the market, like SS and pension and so on. Having some cash to supplement those income streams for a few years is another safety net, as is being debt free with no mortgage to pay. Of course that means I have less money in the market than I otherwise would have, so I am earning less, but that is OK with me because I am such a safety junkie.


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Am I thee only person who can't see the chart?
Yes. I left it in my quote of his post, in case that helps.
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Old 01-07-2017, 11:40 AM   #7
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yup! Enjoy the nice ride of the U.S. stock market while it lasts! What's next is anybody's guess. We just stay the course (50/50, equity/fixed income).
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Old 01-07-2017, 11:59 AM   #8
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OK - thanks for the explanation and great charts.

More evidence the bull run is ending soon. I'm still investing in individual stocks and don't see anything worth buying with current P/E ratio's - so my cash balance is just increasing in the account.
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:20 PM   #9
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OK - thanks for the explanation and great charts.

More evidence the bull run is ending soon. I'm still investing in individual stocks and don't see anything worth buying with current P/E ratio's - so my cash balance is just increasing in the account.
Careful there. I don't see any evidence in the above charts for the next market moves, either up or down.

I use these charts as a way to compare market history .... only.

FWIW, although market valuations are above historical norms they are not at nose bleed levels I think. Of course, valuations are always debatable. Also look at that second decades chart. See that 7 growth rate line (red dotted line on this semilog plot) which shows historical inflation adjusted SP500 growth. Its slope is similar to recent year's SP500 performance (the slope of the blue line from month 40 or so to the present month 84). In other words, in recent years the market has not had a wild ride up.
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:26 PM   #10
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Am I the only person who can't see the chart?
I cannot see it either with CHROME

In Firefox I can see it
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:29 PM   #11
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I cannot see it either with CHROME

In Firefox I can see it
Well, that's interesting, because I cannot see the first chart in Safari, but I can see all the charts in Chrome!
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:33 PM   #12
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I couldn't see it in Chrome until I refreshed the page.
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:34 PM   #13
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Well, that's interesting, because I cannot see the first chart in Safari, but I can see all the charts in Chrome!
Interesting! I'm gonna open another bottle and see if that helps
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:37 PM   #14
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Interesting! I'm gonna open another bottle and see if that helps
It's too early in the day for that!
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:37 PM   #15
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So, for those of you who see a "major crash" coming, which I think is most of you, how big a crash do you see? 20-ish%? Not that big of a deal. 50-ish% knee in the groin hurt? Over 50% --- 1929-ish?
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:56 PM   #16
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I cannot see it either with CHROME

In Firefox I can see it
The images show up fine with Chrome. You may need to clear cookies and caches, disable some of the plugin/extension.
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Old 01-07-2017, 01:14 PM   #17
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So, for those of you who see a "major crash" coming, which I think is most of you, how big a crash do you see? 20-ish%? Not that big of a deal. 50-ish% knee in the groin hurt? Over 50% --- 1929-ish?
If we believe in reversion to the mean, the drop would be 40.34% based on the current P/E of 26.2 and the average P/E of 15.63.
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Old 01-07-2017, 01:16 PM   #18
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The images show up fine with Chrome. You may need to clear cookies and caches, disable some of the plugin/extension.

I figured it had something to do with that. Altho I can see the second chart OK.
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Old 01-07-2017, 01:21 PM   #19
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I also am concerned about a potential market crash. Here is my question: if you are living off of your stash (no new earned income from a job-no pension) then wouldn't you have an absolute min of one yr in cash and a couple years in bonds? Easy for me to say because I am sitting here (me and DW) with 2 COLA pensions at 6 fig's/year. Even with that I am not 100% equities and I have almost 1 yr in cash. I would like to think that if I did not have the pensions I would go 2-5 yrs cash and a few more years in bonds. I also have numerous side hustles (real estate, baseball umpire, volleyball ref, door man occasionally). Although it would suck, a huge (say 50%) market crash wouldn't be so bad. A buying opportunity.
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Old 01-07-2017, 01:32 PM   #20
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Sitting on ~10 years expenses of Bonds/Cash. My current AA is 52/18/30. Not going to put any more into equities at these levels. Been retired 3.5 years and my portfolio is 11% higher then the day I retired. I could be wrong (usually am) and equities could continue to go much higher from here. Bottom line for me is being able to sleep at night and as long as my portfolio value is tracking close to "Plan" then I'm good. I try not to be greedy ...
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