SS Trustees 2018 Annual Report

[USGrant1962]

The 2018 annual report has been issued. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html


Key takeaways:

The OASDI Trust Fund is still depleted in 2034, but the deficit forecast has improved to 21% (can pay 79% of benefits) versus 23% in the 2017 report.

2018 is the first year that SS will spend more than it takes in - so the Trust Fund begins declining this year.

The Medicare Hospital Insurance Trust Fund (Part A) runs out in 2026. Under current law, revenues are projected to cover only 91% of costs, declining to 78% in 2039.

Here's one summary: Analysis of the 2018 Social Security Trustees’ Report | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

 

[joeea]

According to the Secretary of the Treasury, Social Security and Medicare will be just fine:

“The Administration’s economic agenda – tax cuts, regulatory reform, and improved trade agreements – will generate the long-term growth needed to help secure these programs and lead them to a more stable path.

“Social Security and Medicare are the federal government’s two largest programs, and millions of Americans heavily rely on their benefits. Robust economic growth will help to ensure their lasting stability.”


https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm0404

 

[Dtail]

According to the Secretary of the Treasury, Social Security and Medicare will be just fine:

“The Administration’s economic agenda – tax cuts, regulatory reform, and improved trade agreements – will generate the long-term growth needed to help secure these programs and lead them to a more stable path.

“Social Security and Medicare are the federal government’s two largest programs, and millions of Americans heavily rely on their benefits. Robust economic growth will help to ensure their lasting stability.”


https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm0404

Okay now I feel better.

 

[Dash man]

But there are more job openings than people to fill the jobs, and a severe shortage of skilled employees. How will the economy continue to grow?

 

[VanWinkle]

But there are more job openings than people to fill the jobs, and a severe shortage of skilled employees. How will the economy continue to grow?

There are plenty of people for the jobs, just no current incentive to go to work.

 

[USGrant1962]

There are plenty of people for the jobs, just no current incentive to go to work.

Yes, there is about a 350K shortage of employment seekers to job openings. But there are 96 million "out of the workforce" and most of them are not FIRE. There is still headroom in the labor market.

 

[Svensk Anga]

If this party can keep going for a while, I would hope that a lot of those working part-time but desiring full time can get it, those underemployed relative to their education and/or experience can move up to better positions, and a good number of those in poor paying positions can via some initiative and maybe extra training move up. Maybe workers can feel they have some upward mobility again. This could leave the very low end work understaffed, but that is what automation is for. (See MacDonald's installing order entry kiosks. Is running the fryer or the grill farther up the value chain that order clerk?)



To the extent this pans out, SS revenues should improve. Haven't there been a couple upward revisions in the fraction of benefits projected revenue will support? Improving real interest rates should also boost return on the trust fund, but that is really just moving money from one of Uncle Sam's pockets to another.



Continued low unemployment should also pull some folks into the workforce.



There is some slack that could support more growth.