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Old 11-29-2008, 03:55 PM   #21
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Hopefully the Feds can correct the credit market and stem the tide of mortgage defaults until the jobs outlook improves...

If they can... The S&P may have bottomed out [on Nov 20 at 752]... knock on wood. [Unless some other catastrophe emerges.]

Hopefully we can a recover about 20% of the losses in the domestic stock market over the next 12 months. But I suspect the volatility will continue and the lows tested.


Schwab's Jeff Mortimer predicts a big market bounce - Nov. 26, 2008
20% from where? We've already gotten back 19% from the bottom as we stand right now. Another 20% (to 1075 S&P500) would get us to about 43% from the bottom. Not an unrealistic "goal" IMO. That would still be 31% down from the Oct '07 high. But I'd be happy with it, especially since I've poured in about 25% more cash (from the value on Oct 10) into stocks since Oct 10. So I'd get a nice bounce from those investments. Here's to hoping it comes to fruition!
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Old 11-29-2008, 04:30 PM   #22
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20% from where? We've already gotten back 19% from the bottom as we stand right now. Another 20% (to 1075 S&P500) would get us to about 43% from the bottom. Not an unrealistic "goal" IMO. That would still be 31% down from the Oct '07 high. But I'd be happy with it, especially since I've poured in about 25% more cash (from the value on Oct 10) into stocks since Oct 10. So I'd get a nice bounce from those investments. Here's to hoping it comes to fruition!

I would hope to trim the loss from the last peak to 30% off the peak instead of approx 50% (at the bottom). 30% off its last peak would be just below 1100. Realistic?? It is difficult to say. It depends on investors.
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Old 11-29-2008, 05:22 PM   #23
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Hey ooohh ahh people keep spending money..

Early data shows strong Black Friday: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
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Old 11-29-2008, 06:58 PM   #24
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I would hope to trim the loss from the last peak to 30% off the peak instead of approx 50% (at the bottom). 30% off its last peak would be just below 1100. Realistic?? It is difficult to say. It depends on investors.
Ah. OK. In other words approx. 43% recovery from the bottom of 752. I think it's certainly possible based on how the market has reacted in the past.
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Old 11-29-2008, 09:18 PM   #25
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... and trampling workers to death to spend it ....

Worker dies at Long Island Wal-Mart after being trampled in Black Friday stampede
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Old 11-30-2008, 05:36 AM   #26
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Some stats on past financial crisis since WWII. [Does not include 9-11]

Stock Returns After Crisis
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Old 11-30-2008, 07:48 AM   #27
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It's a good chart. It would have been nice to see more recent trends after 1998 as well.
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