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Old 07-16-2016, 10:00 AM   #21
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If your reasoning is true, then we can expect a few EM 1st place finishes in the nwxt few years' rankings, followed by a U.S. recession.
You never know. EMs were pretty terrible for a few years, relative to the rest of the market, in the late 1990s and even into the dotcom bubble burst in 2000-01.

But around 2003, they exploded. Anyone gradually building a position in EMs from around the 1998-2002 time frame as values kept falling hit a nice windfall in the next five years or so as EMs *way* outperformed almost everything else.
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Old 07-16-2016, 10:12 AM   #22
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Wow, I made a off-hand comment and you guys are outlining theoretical modeling. Maybe the tealeaves in your cup are being over valued.


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Old 07-18-2016, 09:01 AM   #23
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I have 5% in emerging markets (sche)...will it ever go up?

Also have 8% in total foreign (schf)..

I'm not selling or trading just wonder when they will have their turn .
Maybe right after you sell :P
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Old 07-18-2016, 09:42 PM   #24
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It will go up 2 months after you sell in disgust, but not before patting yourself on your back after it slightly drops the day after you sell.
Ha! Ain't that the truth?
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Old 07-19-2016, 07:34 AM   #25
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Surely you don't really expect a definitive answer to a question whose answer is unknowable?
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Old 07-19-2016, 12:23 PM   #26
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It will happen as soon as the crowd writes off EM as dead and never coming back. When the popular press starts writing articles about the death of EM, go all in!


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Old 07-21-2016, 07:22 PM   #27
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The recovery year to date in EM debt funds and Latin America is already marked, although it still doesn't recover values a year back. I think the Fidelity LA fund is up 29% or so ytd, Fidelity New Markets (EM debt) is up 14% and FAZ is up 19%. I had considered investing new funds at the beginning of the year based on the severity of the downturn but only did it in the Latin American fund third quarter 2015.
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Old 08-12-2016, 03:59 PM   #28
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It will go up 2 months after you sell in disgust, but not before patting yourself on your back after it slightly drops the day after you sell.
So did you ever sell or did you wait it out? Two months has just about gone by:

A Closer Look At The Melt-Up In Emerging Markets - Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:VWO) | Seeking Alpha
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Old 08-12-2016, 06:07 PM   #29
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Int has been doing very nicely for me the last couple weeks. Vwo, veu, vss.


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Old 08-13-2016, 06:19 AM   #30
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Yeah, I put in a first portion a month or so ago in emerging. Figure I'd wait a while and then maybe put in a second portion end of year or beginning of next.

That may turn out to be a mistake of omission. No complaints.
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Old 08-13-2016, 07:53 AM   #31
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I've been in the red with int and em for the last three years. Together they make up 45% of my portfolio. Almost all my contributions have been directed that way to try to keep allocation in balance. Finally feel like the pendulum *might* swing back my way soon. I'm just slightly in the red overall now.

Dollar strength plus low oil are the big weights that have held it down. When those bust, watch out.
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Old 08-13-2016, 09:48 AM   #32
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Int has been doing very nicely for me the last couple weeks. Vwo, veu, vss.


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Old 08-13-2016, 10:48 AM   #33
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Yeah, the emergings that I bought three-four years ago are no longer sub-mergings.
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