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07-16-2016, 10:00 AM
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#21
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,547
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019
If your reasoning is true, then we can expect a few EM 1st place finishes in the nwxt few years' rankings, followed by a U.S. recession.
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You never know. EMs were pretty terrible for a few years, relative to the rest of the market, in the late 1990s and even into the dotcom bubble burst in 2000-01.
But around 2003, they exploded. Anyone gradually building a position in EMs from around the 1998-2002 time frame as values kept falling hit a nice windfall in the next five years or so as EMs *way* outperformed almost everything else.
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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07-16-2016, 10:12 AM
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#22
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 963
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Wow, I made a off-hand comment and you guys are outlining theoretical modeling. Maybe the tealeaves in your cup are being over valued.
Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
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07-18-2016, 09:01 AM
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#23
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 431
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ducky911
I have 5% in emerging markets (sche)...will it ever go up?
Also have 8% in total foreign (schf)..
I'm not selling or trading just wonder when they will have their turn .
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Maybe right after you sell :P
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07-18-2016, 09:42 PM
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#24
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 529
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Quote:
Originally Posted by akck
It will go up 2 months after you sell in disgust, but not before patting yourself on your back after it slightly drops the day after you sell.
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Ha! Ain't that the truth?
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07-19-2016, 07:34 AM
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#25
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Alberta/Ontario/ Arizona
Posts: 2,780
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Surely you don't really expect a definitive answer to a question whose answer is unknowable?
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07-19-2016, 12:23 PM
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#26
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 134
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It will happen as soon as the crowd writes off EM as dead and never coming back. When the popular press starts writing articles about the death of EM, go all in!
Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
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07-21-2016, 07:22 PM
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#27
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Reno
Posts: 466
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The recovery year to date in EM debt funds and Latin America is already marked, although it still doesn't recover values a year back. I think the Fidelity LA fund is up 29% or so ytd, Fidelity New Markets (EM debt) is up 14% and FAZ is up 19%. I had considered investing new funds at the beginning of the year based on the severity of the downturn but only did it in the Latin American fund third quarter 2015.
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08-12-2016, 06:07 PM
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#29
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 963
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Int has been doing very nicely for me the last couple weeks. Vwo, veu, vss.
Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
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08-13-2016, 06:19 AM
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#30
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Utrecht
Posts: 2,050
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Yeah, I put in a first portion a month or so ago in emerging. Figure I'd wait a while and then maybe put in a second portion end of year or beginning of next.
That may turn out to be a mistake of omission. No complaints.
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08-13-2016, 07:53 AM
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#31
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 963
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I've been in the red with int and em for the last three years. Together they make up 45% of my portfolio. Almost all my contributions have been directed that way to try to keep allocation in balance. Finally feel like the pendulum *might* swing back my way soon. I'm just slightly in the red overall now.
Dollar strength plus low oil are the big weights that have held it down. When those bust, watch out.
[Mod Edit]
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08-13-2016, 09:48 AM
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#32
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 516
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dallas27
Int has been doing very nicely for me the last couple weeks. Vwo, veu, vss.
Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
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Your welcome. 
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08-13-2016, 10:48 AM
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#33
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,790
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Yeah, the emergings that I bought three-four years ago are no longer sub-mergings.
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OMY * 3 2ish
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