When will the Stock Market Recover?

[chinaco]

Please provide you best guess in the poll and comment.

 

[OAG]

What poll?

 

[chinaco]

What poll?

You were too quick for me. I didn't get a chance to key the options in before you responded.

 

[OAG]

With all the Doom and Gloom on CNBC and all the rest - plus the "brainwashing of the masses" by the general local media to the "sad state of the American Economy" I think it will take a LOT of evidence, and time, to convince otherwise. I would hope it would be second half of 2009 but I voted first half of 2010.

 

[Walt34]

2009 2nd half, but that's just a WAG.

 

[HFWR]

Define "recover"...

 

[kumquat]

When people least expect it.

 

[chinaco]

Define "recover"...

Already bottomed out and beginning to trend upward for a sustained period of time.

 

[Meadbh]

Maybe none of the above?

reportonbusiness.com: Making the most of a ‘cowardly lion' market

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Either 1-2 months from now or 2 years from now...

 

[CuppaJoe]

Recovery? We don't need no F***ing recovery.

Seriously, 11,659.90, 2,452.52, and 1,298.19 are good enuf for me. I said it a year ago and I'll say it again, anything over 11,000 is froth on the latte. I said that because my perspective is circa 1972, and pity anyone who got in at 10,500 or, god forbid, higher. Again, I am unable to vote.

 

[whitestick]

For all the reasons OAG mentioned, it has probably already begun, unfortunately. Like CuppaJoe I'm sad to see it come. My investing depends on the market just bouncing around or decreasing slightly for optimum performance, and when the recognition of the recovery occurs, I won't make quite as much. Ah well, at least the happy talk will be nice.

 

[chinaco]

Looks like 70% believe it is happening now or will by 2009.

Yippee!

 

[Alan]

Looks like 70% believe it is happening now or will by 2009.

Yippee!

Quite different from the Doom and Gloom thread of a few weeks ago

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I think that was until everyone got the memo that the beatings will continue until morale improves!

 

[Notmuchlonger]

I hope the morale doesnt improve. Since I enjoy the beatings.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I'll be right over. Eat some peppers first. I hear capsicum is a good pain reliever!

For what its worth, mine were also red hot after sitting overnight...my wife still enjoyed them...

 

[NW-Bound]

When people least expect it.

Which is in 2011, according to the poll, at this posting.

Good. I voted for next year, but will hold my cash and wait to buy then. Have I-bonds, will wait.

 

[haha]

Quite different from the Doom and Gloom thread of a few weeks ago

Events lead attitudes, not the other way around. Today's optimism may be no better informed than last months pessimism.

Ha

 

[Marquette]

For what its worth, mine were also red hot after sitting overnight...my wife still enjoyed them...

Very interesting, but I'm not quite sure what to make of it... my guess is that you tried to give 'them' a little perm with the curling iron which she enjoyed immensely. I guess this O0O0 is the closest emoticon I can come up with.

Be careful down there!

 

[jclarksnakes]

Recover? Recover from what? The market made a correction after several years of very nice growth. Big deal! It seems like the bottom of the correction may have been in the last 90 days but it really does not matter. I find it exceedingly funny that on this forum where we had an amazingly large number of people singing gloom and doom as recently as two weeks ago today an overwhelming majority think the market will "recover" starting now or within the next 24 months. What happened to all those nattering nabobs of negativity? Some folks need to get a true long term economic outlook or they will find themselves repeatedly undergoing periods of unwarranted panic.
Avuncularly,
Jeff

 

[unclemick]

Hmmm - Sooo DOW 7592 in 02 wasn't a bottom and up from there - eh.

Just another minor anchor in an ocean of bull?

heh heh heh - humor intended.

 

[HFWR]

I hope the morale doesnt improve. Since I enjoy the beatings.

The beatings will continue unless morals improve...

 

[Independent]

I've got no idea when the market will "recover" because I don't know if it is unusually low. P/E's are still around 20. That is a "low" number compared to the 1990's, but it's "high" compared to any prior non-peak.

 

[audreyh1]

A few weeks ago I was inclined to think we would get a first half 2009 start of recovery as it looked like maybe the housing situation would stabilize by mid 2009 and you gotta figure that the stock market would anticipate that early in 2009.

But since, several things have come up that make me think this is going to take longer:
1. ECRI leading index growth factor which had been improving has turned down hard in the last few weeks to some pretty bad levels. Things are getting worse, not better.
2. Credit has tightened considerably recently. Historically, this has led to a big increase in unemployment about 1 year later. So perhaps employment will reach a new low about a year out.
3. There was another one, but I can't remember it right now

So to me this means probably another year of this yuck, with the market not anticipating improvements until later next year. How late of course is anyone's guess.

Too bad huh? I don't know if we'll see another low in this cycle - who knows - but I'll rebalance again if things get bad enough.

Audrey