Will the new healthcare law make it easier for me to retire early?

[FinanceDude]

Just heard that the new bill will cost big pharmaceutical companies $90 billion. Any ideas on where the next blockbuster drugs will come from that take billions to develop and get clinical trials on?

 

[audreyh1]

Just heard that the new bill will cost big pharmaceutical companies $90 billion. Any ideas on where the next blockbuster drugs will come from that take billions to develop and get clinical trials on?

They weren't spending money on developing life-saving drugs or drugs that really cure diseases anyway. They focus on drugs that people have to take every day for the rest of their lives, outrageously priced cancer treating drugs that barely extend life (and where Medicare has no negotiating power), and recreation enhancing drugs such as viagra that they spend oodles on advertising. I'm not so impressed by their spending habits.

Audrey

 

[MichaelB]

Just heard that the new bill will cost big pharmaceutical companies $90 billion. Any ideas on where the next blockbuster drugs will come from that take billions to develop and get clinical trials on?

IIRC this is less than the difference in price Medicare pays vs other private insurance industry.

 

[ziggy29]

They weren't spending money on developing life-saving drugs or drugs that really cure diseases anyway. They focus on drugs that people have to take every day for the rest of their lives, outrageously priced cancer treating drugs that barely extend life (and where Medicare has no negotiating power), and recreation enhancing drugs such as viagra that they spend oodles on advertising. I'm not so impressed by their spending habits.

IMO, there's no way penicillin and antibiotics like it would have been developed by Big Pharma today.

There's no money in cures, only in treating symptoms for life. And yes, I am that cynical.

 

[FinanceDude]

outrageously priced cancer treating drugs that barely extend life

Herceptin gave my sister 6 more years of life when she was told she had 6 months to live back in early 2000. I guess you haven't been personally affected by cancer so I will take your comment as a general one rather than a blanket statement...........

 

[FinanceDude]

There's no money in cures, only in treating symptoms for life. And yes, I am that cynical.

So treating AIDS is not good?

 

[ziggy29]

So treating AIDS is not good?

Quite a stretch to take my comments and make that remark, and not worth my time to dignify it with a clarification.

 

[audreyh1]

Herceptin gave my sister 6 more years of life when she was told she had 6 months to live back in early 2000. I guess you haven't been personally affected by cancer so I will take your comment as a general one rather than a blanket statement...........

Nope, quite the opposite. I am very personally acquainted with Avastin and how such modern cancer drugs are priced.

Audrey

 

[swampwiz]

I wonder how income will be determined for the subsidies

Ordinarily, income would be considered as line 22 total income, or perhaps line 37 adjusted gross income. But there is a problem using this - what about folks who are converting a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA? They haven't taken any money out, so it really isn't income. Conversely, what about folks who take a withdrawal from a Roth IRA? In that situation, they would not have any additional amount on lines 22 & 37.

 

[FUEGO]

Yes- if 20 is the youngest bracket. They can (and will) also charge for smoking and family size.

An excellent resource is Kaiser Family Foundation. A summary here http://www.kff.org/healthreform/upload/8023-S.pdf

That is dated January 2010. Is this the exact same bill that was passed into law? And is the bill that was passed and signed into law the final health care bill? What is the deal with reconciliation amendments and handshake deals between the house and senate to agree to change the law?

I'm really confused and was hoping for some common sense concise explanations of what was just passed so that the common person (like me) could read a few pages (maybe 10 pages) and understand how they and their business would be impacted generally. I saw these concise summaries months ago when they were selling the House and Senate flavors of the bill, but have not seen anything concise that summarizes what was passed (with or without reconciliation/amendments etc).

Links please?

(this is a general comment directed to anyone)

 

[samclem]

Hey, if the incoming, subsidized masses substantially raise their costs, then they have to raise their rates. But they have to spend 80% of proceeds on health care so they won't be able to arbitrarily raise them beyond that threshold.

The most important previous cost containment mechanism on that health care spending will be gone. In the past, medical spending was "bounded" (however ineffectively) by consumers electing not to buy the product. With heavily subsidized third-party payers (private insurance companies), there will be much less of this. The insurance companies will have absolutely no incentive to reduce medical spending overall--their 20% "share" is now locked in, and every company will get the same 20%. Instead of a supply/demand based check on medical costs, we'll be substituting government cost controls. That might work, or it might not (history has an answer on this), but we should be aware that we are consciously abandoning whatever market-derived price moderation there was in favor of rulemaking and regulations-based controls.

Again, maybe it will work really well and people will love it. I hope it does!

 

[MichaelB]

That is dated January 2010. Is this the exact same bill that was passed into law? And is the bill that was passed and signed into law the final health care bill? What is the deal with reconciliation amendments and handshake deals between the house and senate to agree to change the law?

I'm really confused and was hoping for some common sense concise explanations of what was just passed so that the common person (like me) could read a few pages (maybe 10 pages) and understand how they and their business would be impacted generally. I saw these concise summaries months ago when they were selling the House and Senate flavors of the bill, but have not seen anything concise that summarizes what was passed (with or without reconciliation/amendments etc).

This is what was passed and is now law. A summary of the reconciliation bill is here http://www.kff.org/healthreform/upload/8023-R.pdf

Look here for well organized and presented info, including a tool to calculate subsidies. The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation - Health Policy, Media Resources, Public Health Education & South Africa - Kaiser Family Foundation

Links please?

You want fries with that?

 

[ziggy29]

The problem with all these online calculators is that they only focus on single individuals or families of 4. I've not seen any that reflect other household situations. Would love to see a link if anyone has seen any such beast.

 

[FUEGO]

This is what was passed and is now law. A summary of the reconciliation bill is here http://www.kff.org/healthreform/upload/8023-R.pdf

Look here for well organized and presented info, including a tool to calculate subsidies. The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation - Health Policy, Media Resources, Public Health Education & South Africa - Kaiser Family Foundation

You want fries with that?

Thanks for the links! I was coming up empty before in my searches. So the 8023-R pdf basically presents the bill that is now law, plus those changes/amendments passed by the House and pending approval of the Senate? The 8023-S is the Senate bill that was passed and is currently law.

I didn't follow the backroom dealing too much. Is it safe to say that the Senate will pass the House Amendment bill substantially unchanged? They just need the 51 votes?

 

[MichaelB]

Thanks for the links! I was coming up empty before in my searches. So the 8023-R pdf basically presents the bill that is now law, plus those changes/amendments passed by the House and pending approval of the Senate? The 8023-S is the Senate bill that was passed and is currently law.

Aye laddie...

I didn't follow the backroom dealing too much. Is it safe to say that the Senate will pass the House Amendment bill substantially unchanged? They just need the 51 votes?

That's the plan. Is it gonna happen? I dinna ken. Remember Burns:

The best-laid schemes o' mice an 'men. Gang aft agley,

 

[teejayevans]

Just heard that the new bill will cost big pharmaceutical companies $90 billion. Any ideas on where the next blockbuster drugs will come from that take billions to develop and get clinical trials on?

I heard the opposite, since additional 30 million with
medical insurance, means millions more perscriptions.
Guess it depends on who is doing the math.
TJ

 

[PaulVerizer]

Yeah, what about this?

Ordinarily, income would be considered as line 22 total income, or perhaps line 37 adjusted gross income. But there is a problem using this - what about folks who are converting a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA? They haven't taken any money out, so it really isn't income. Conversely, what about folks who take a withdrawal from a Roth IRA? In that situation, they would not have any additional amount on lines 22 & 37.

Does anyone happen to know if a conversion to a Roth IRA is currently considered to be income for the purposes of Medicaid or other government benefits? I've googled on this for almost an hour now and can't find anything.

 

[Texas Proud]

This is what was passed and is now law. A summary of the reconciliation bill is here http://www.kff.org/healthreform/upload/8023-R.pdf

Look here for well organized and presented info, including a tool to calculate subsidies. The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation - Health Policy, Media Resources, Public Health Education & South Africa - Kaiser Family Foundation

You want fries with that?

I went to the first link.... and WOW.... what a typo!!!! (I added the color...)


"The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the legislation will reduce the number of uninsured by 32 million in 2019 at a net cost of $938 over ten years, while reducing the deficit by $124 billion during this time period."

 

[clifp]

So, they will just jack up the 20 year old cost to cover the 60 year old cost. That's what I'd do.

I recently started posted in the Politics and Religion section of a computer games industry forum. It is fascinating to see the difference in reaction between the two forums.

The games industry forum is made of primarily of 20 or 30 something who are involved as programmers, designers, and founders of computer/video game companies and journalist who cover the field. (I was investor/business guy of a game company for a few years right after retirement.)

Compared to this forum they are far more liberal and supportive of the bill. Very few (I maybe the only one) are retired, and while most are covered by insurance via their companies, quite a few are contractors and will probably be forced to buy insurance. I suspect that most have incomes that will put them well outside of the subsidy ranges. If insurance companies end up raising the price of insurance for young people to keep the maximum age differential at 3x, I guess the alternative is to lower it for us older folks , the young folks will end up subsidies is us older wealthier folks.

I guess the good news is they really like the bill.

 

[winger]

This is a great discussion. Thanks.

 

[Lazarus]

I recently started posted in the Politics and Religion section of a computer games industry forum. It is fascinating to see the difference in reaction between the two forums.

The games industry forum is made of primarily of 20 or 30 something who are involved as programmers, designers, and founders of computer/video game companies and journalist who cover the field. (I was investor/business guy of a game company for a few years right after retirement.)

Compared to this forum they are far more liberal and supportive of the bill. Very few (I maybe the only one) are retired, and while most are covered by insurance via their companies, quite a few are contractors and will probably be forced to buy insurance. I suspect that most have incomes that will put them well outside of the subsidy ranges. If insurance companies end up raising the price of insurance for young people to keep the maximum age differential at 3x, I guess the alternative is to lower it for us older folks , the young folks will end up subsidies is us older wealthier folks.

I guess the good news is they really like the bill.

They will not figure out that their wealth will be transferred to the old and the less productive. They only hear that "things are fair now", everyone will have health care. Wait till they see the cost to them.

Being old and less productive I welcome their contributions.

Baby boomers still have a lot of votes!

TANSTAFL

 

[kyounge1956]

They will not figure out that their wealth will be transferred to the old and the less productive. They only hear that "things are fair now", everyone will have health care. Wait till they see the cost to them.(snip)

Maybe they just think the cost to them is worth it, in the same way most people think that the cost of public schools, public roads, etc, are worth it.

 

[scrabbler1]

This is a great discussion. Thanks.

I second this. Having worked in the actuarial profession for 23 years (specializing in personal auto insurance) before I retired in 2008 at age 45, I do plan to chime in soon on this thread. I have a long, busy day ahead tomorrow so it will have to wait until Friday.

Keep on posting here, everyone. I am finding this a great read in the meantime.

 

[swampwiz]

Does anyone happen to know if a conversion to a Roth IRA is currently considered to be income for the purposes of Medicaid or other government benefits? I've googled on this for almost an hour now and can't find anything.

Yes, that was basically my question. I am trying to get some clarification via my Congressman (who has passed the buck on my state legislator ...)

 

[Lazarus]

Maybe they just think the cost to them is worth it, in the same way most people think that the cost of public schools, public roads, etc, are worth it.

I am sure that some of them do, but I doubt its many. I have yet to hear a young person say "I sure am glad my social security payments are helping the old people live better." I have only heard them complain that they are unlikely to get anything out of it.

Much of the cost of the heath care bill will have to come from the young and healthy to make it work.

Working class to middle class are going to take a hit. Working poor are going to benefit.

As to the school taxes for public schools. No I don't think they are worth it. I would have been happy to pay for my children to go to school and let everyone else do the same for theirs.