magellan said:...For a very controversial read around this subject, you might try this book from the inventor of fractals.
Jim
Thanks for the link. I'm putting that one on my reading list.
magellan said:...For a very controversial read around this subject, you might try this book from the inventor of fractals.
Jim
slepyhed said:Thanks for the link. I'm putting that one on my reading list.
magellan said:Actually, I misspoke earlier when I said kurtosis was the same as skew. (use-it-or-lose-it I guess). I did some googling to refresh my memory.
Kurtosis and skew are usually mentioned together and refer to that fact that portfolio returns don't exactly model the "normal distribution" that's used in Monte Carlo portfolio models. Skewness refers to a distribution having more weight on one side vs the other side, (ie. more likelihood of negative returns than positive). Kurtosis refers to a flatness in the return distribution, where the tails (extremes) in the distribution are fatter than they would be if they were truly normal. The "fat tails" theory says that most models are overly optimistic because they don't account well enough for really bad outcomes.
The whole normal distribution debate is highly academic and probably not of much use in practical applications at this point. To me the most important point is to keep from thinking that all these mathematical models are foolproof. For a very controversial read around this subject, you might try this book from the inventor of fractals.
Jim
MasterBlaster said:Well you sort of got skewness and kurtosis...
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So there you have it. Now go impress your friends !
magellan said:That's was all very informative, but you didn't weigh in on the most important question - Do you think any of it matters in estimating portfolio returns?
Jim
Well maybe we need to speak to Jim. I kept SWR at 4% of previous year portfolio. Making it flat at $40,000 brings the difference down to $14.2 million instead of $17.2 million, hardly material. Not that I would sneeze at $3 million but he is still understating his portfolio seriously after 40 years. That was the point I was making. The simplification just does not work.slepyhed said:Kieth:
On the "Jim's Math", the withdrawal should be $40,000 for all the years. It shouldn't creep up. That's what Jim intended. He wants you to factor out inflation off the top.
-Mike Miller
Just don't get on your DWs case (because she is more correct than you are), especially because you are really early retirees, i.e. the effects show up more dramatically in 40 years.magellan said:Exactly. Thanks Mike.
Kieth, I'm starting to think that I'm not quite following you on this stuff. I'm not being all that conservative really. In rough numbers, I've chosen a 3% SWR instead of 4% in order to account for the long retirement timeframe. If I had to, I could probably use 3.5% and still feel ok about it, but don't worry, we're not starving ourselves.
Jim
kcowan said:Well maybe we need to speak to Jim. I kept SWR at 4% of previous year portfolio. Making it flat at $40,000 brings the difference down to $14.2 million instead of $17.2 million, hardly material. Not that I would sneeze at $3 million but he is still understating his portfolio seriously after 40 years. That was the point I was making. The simplification just does not work.
I hear this all the time but I'm not sure that the quality of the "data" is any better than anecdotal. It certainly doesn't jibe with the threads about financially supporting your parents.kcowan said:My point is that you need to be realistic about the numbers. Most seniors die with plenty of money left while depriving themselves of many pleasures.
Nords said:More importantly, how do we determine whether or not the people in the surveys or other "gathered data" are telling the truth about their wealth?