Recession Over? Fat chance...

[haha]

I've been studying women for ~40 years. I keep flunking the tests and having to repeat the course.

I could give you the Cliff's Notes, but I would get into trouble.

Ha

 

[unclemick]

I could give you the Cliff's Notes, but I would get into trouble.

Ha

I tossed in the towel years ago - I just let the ones catch me that do a good job of fooling me into chasing them.

I think it stems from passive investing in index funds - sort of a lefthanded Bogle in in romance - hurry up just stand there.

heh heh heh - that way you don't have to do any deep thinking or engage in study. .


Amazingly - it seems to help in recessions also!

 

[bssc]

Interestingly enough, the university system decided to raise fees 32 percent. More here.

 

[crazy connie]

Interestingly enough, the university system decided to raise fees 32 percent. More here.

I was following this last night. California also cut wages for elected officials by 18%. Overall the Golden State has 15% unemployment. I am taking a box of food to a food drive tonight for the farmers where the water is shut off to protect the Delta Smelt minnows. There they have over 40% unemployment. Cali now has the highest suicide rate in the nation. The Golden State in not so Golden now.

 

[LARS]

I, of course, could be wrong, but I am of the view that the accumulated damage to the balance sheets of America (both public and private) run the risk of causing long term problems that will manifest themselves in subpar growth and a declination in living standards (principly driven by decreasing value of the dollar and the concommitant rise in energy costs).

Things are not pretty in the economy. Any positive results of late have been driven solely by massive government intervention (think ZIRP and TARP and other alphabet creations of the FED). None of this is creating sustainable growth, just lots of debt that will have to be serviced: hence decrease in standard of living.

 

[crazy connie]

B-I-N-G-O Lars

As I see it you are spot on. No matter how much they take from us we can not raise the standard of living of the whole world. Since they can not attain our level the stated goal is to reduce ours. I just hope we do not have to try and live with 3rd world standards and dictatorships for the next century. As the old country song says, "Sometimes you don't know what you've got till it's gone".

 

[bubba]

What Lars said.

 

[Bimmerbill]

So, how do we protect ourselves if what Lars said comes to pass. Save more? Wouldn't we just get taxed out the wazoo?

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Just don't stop working.

 

[Milton]

Just don't stop working.

Blasphemy!

 

[LARS]

Complain to your Representatives that you are tired have them wasting money (not that it will do any good, but you never know).

 

[unclemick]

Complain to your Representatives that you are tired have them wasting money (not that it will do any good, but you never know).

Passing the buck doesn't cut it. Like POGO - looking in the mirror we have met the enemy and we is them.



My late Father left Brooklyn in the 1930's outa high school and snagged a job teaching English to Finnish ship building executives. A good friend 's daughter has taken her Phd out of Louisiana to China and makes the big bucks teaching English (Cajun accent costs extra ).

Of Course if you are stuck here - maybe pssst Wellesley with an added dash of perhaps some Vanguard Total World Stock Index fund in case someone is doing ok somewhere - you know what Jimmy Buffett says about 5 o clock.

heh heh heh - agile, mobile, and hostile - keep yer passport up to date and don't be on the last train leaving Berlin.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

agile, mobile, and hostile - keep yer passport up to date and don't be on the last train leaving Berlin.

You got it, Unk.

 

[Surfdaddy]

Realize that technically, the end of a recession is when the economy stops contracting and starts growing. So it can still be lousy even after the end of a recession. For example, if the economy is at level 100 and shrinks to level 90, then as soon as it begins to grow again (say, to 92), the recession is over. But you are still at level 92 and you used to be at 100.

"Recession is over" does not mean the economy is back to where it once was.

 

[Berkshire_Bull]

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.


Sentiment Survey


Bullish 31.7%
AAII’s members were asked to
finish this sentence:

I feel that the direction of the stock market over the next 6 months will be:
Bearish, Neutral, or Bullish.

Neutral 16.7%

Bearish 51.7%



Long-Term Average:
Bullish: 39%
Neutral: 31%

 

[Zathras]

Meaningless without context.
Are you saying this survey is an indicator of future performance of the stock market?
How closely has it predicted moves in the stock market in the past?

 

[Berkshire_Bull]

Meaningless without context.
Are you saying this survey is an indicator of future performance of the stock market?
How closely has it predicted moves in the stock market in the past?

AAII went to 79% bearish on the EXACT bottom (666). This was the worst (best) reading EVER.

One big point I see is that expectations are low. Money is on the sidelines earning .01% in money market funds. People will be buying into this market.

 

[Lakewood90712]

Recession Over ? It sure is at Goldman,Sachs & Co. The company is boasting about a net of 35 million a day. T.A.R.P. and the stimulus plan is working !

 

[JacQueuf]

i think its cute that the recession end is still something people believe in. its almost like santa claus. it'd sure hurt a heck of a lot more waking up to reality than when u found out santa wasnt real. the recession aint goin nowhere. so what do u do? not sure if you guys are familiar with gerald celente but according to him, its here to stay.

 

[Berkshire_Bull]

i think its cute that the recession end is still something people believe in. its almost like santa claus. it'd sure hurt a heck of a lot more waking up to reality than when u found out santa wasnt real. the recession aint goin nowhere. so what do u do? not sure if you guys are familiar with gerald celente but according to him, its here to stay.

Is this the guy? YouTube - ' Worst economic collapse ever'

LOL! Thanks for the laugh. Market's up 27% since this guy's "bold predictions."

Keep holding cash

Keep shorting the market

Keep watching the rally

Buffett says the bottom is in and we're heading higher. What's Gerald Celente's net worth?

 

[LARS]

Market's up 27% since this guy's "bold predictions."

I, personally, would not make the leap from the stock market is up to the economy has recovered/is anywhere near out of the woods.

But, of course, we each makes our bets and takes our chances.

 

[oldtrig]

I do not know about the rest of the country but here where I live what he stated is coming true. We have no jobs available to speak of. Gold is going up. I think we are already in a depression. I know that everyone here with large amounts of cash in the market do not want to hear or believe this but look around. See how many homes are for sale or in foreclosure. Scary uh ? Now, I am about to throw some cash in the stock market

 

[REWahoo]

Now, I am about to throw some cash in the stock market.

We've got you right where we want you...

 

[Berkshire_Bull]

I do not know about the rest of the country but here where I live what he stated is coming true. We have no jobs available to speak of. Gold is going up. I think we are already in a depression. I know that everyone here with large amounts of cash in the market do not want to hear or believe this but look around. See how many homes are for sale or in foreclosure. Scary uh ? Now, I am about to throw some cash in the stock market

The people that still have their money in the market are there because they understand the risks and want to have their dollars in the medium that gives them the greatest potential for sustainable long term growth. The people who sold last winter/this spring are the ones who do not want to hear how things are turning around. Those that sold are sitting around hoping it gets worse hoping for a crash that will never come.

Those that wanted out got out and now own CD's, govies, and fixed annuities.

Over half of investors are bearish. 2/3 believe the market will not go up the intermediate future.

No one left to sell. No one left to sell.

 

[oldtrig]

2/3 believe the market will not go up the intermediate future
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a record above $1,200 an ounce in New York trading as a weaker dollar, rising government debt and concern over Iran’s nuclear program spurred investors to seek a haven.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akAfKcKiyUpk