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50 year success rate higher than 30 year
Old 02-16-2011, 07:29 AM   #1
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50 year success rate higher than 30 year

If I run the calc for 50 years I get a higher percentage of success than if I ran it for 30 years. It's counterintuitive to me to think that my money would last for 50 years but not 30. But because FC works strictly on historical data there are more years of data to pull from in 30 year segments than 50 year segments.

So, I've been running my numbers based on 50 years. But I think I will start running my scenarios based on 30 to get more 'real' results. Or am I not seeing things correctly on FireCalc?
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Old 02-16-2011, 07:41 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by robbridg View Post
But because FC works strictly on historical data there are more years of data to pull from in 30 year segments than 50 year segments.
That's it. Some bad periods may not be included in the 50 year run.

Try running 30- 35-40-45 and see what you get. Throw a little conservative fudging on top of the worst case, cross your fingers and enjoy. Not much else you can do.

-ERD50
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Old 02-23-2011, 08:24 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
That's it. Some bad periods may not be included in the 50 year run.

Try running 30- 35-40-45 and see what you get. Throw a little conservative fudging on top of the worst case, cross your fingers and enjoy. Not much else you can do.

-ERD50
That's what I thought. thanks!
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Old 02-23-2011, 09:11 AM   #4
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Old 02-23-2011, 10:04 AM   #5
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