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FireCalc = Monte Carlo simulator
Old 11-14-2006, 11:47 AM   #1
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FireCalc = Monte Carlo simulator

http://www.fpanet.org/journal/betwee...ays/071506.cfm

This article in the FPA Journal analyzes the results of FireCalc as an example of a Monte Carlo simulator. I guess I don't know enough about the inner workings of FireCalc. Does it actually perform a Monte Carlo analysis?
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Re: FireCalc = Monte Carlo simulator
Old 11-19-2006, 07:46 PM   #2
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Re: FireCalc = Monte Carlo simulator

The author points out that FIRECalc uses historical, not random data. But for all practical purposes, yes, it's a Monte Carlo calculator. The historical data is certain not to repeat, but it serves as a useful proxy for random numbers that are "realistic" because we don't have to make assumptions about year-to-year correlations (etc.) that are needed for a good monte carlo tool.
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