What's Your Life Expectancy

[Sunset]

Darn, I have to get busy and plan some trips..... before I pop

 

[Moemg]

The first calculator was 79 and the second was 93 . My Mom just died at 99 and all the women in my family live long lives . My Aunt is 82 and looks like 70 .I would settle on 85.

 

[NW-Bound]

For me, life expectancy = 92.

But what is this? 75% chance of living to 83. I may just fall into that unlucky 25% who do not make it to 83.

PS. A life expectancy of 92 means there's a 50/50 chance for me to get there. There's no 100% at any age. I may just drop dead next week because of a heart attack, or a stroke. Or I may get diagnosed with cancer and die next year despite all the treatments available.

OK, I just saw the 2nd calculator posted by imoldernu. It says 93 for me.

Should I believe these, and lower my WR further?

I will believe it when I get there. Heck, if I get there I will not remember anything about any longevity calculator.

 

[dixonge]

Here's a different site, with a few more health questions.

I gave me three more years... from 95 to 98... I simply can't afford that!..

Lifespan Calculator – Test Your Life Expectancy || NM

And that one is from an insurance company, which probably sells annuities as well...

I found a different one and it told me 98. Lots of good questions, but also provided a referral link to an investing site (Betterment).

 

[Danmar]

Calculator says 92 my personal goal is 90. Have a younger wife and want to leave a substantial legacy, so financially I'm planning for the stash to never run out. Based on 90 I'm about 30% through retirement. So far so good.

 

[NW-Bound]

The life expectancy thinggy is mainly to encourage people to have good habits. Yes, one should be encouraged to do healthy things, but there is never any guarantee.

Steve Jobs died at 56. Andy Grove died recently at 79. I would think their life expectancy was much higher using these calculators, but they probably fell into the group of the unlucky 5 or 10%. Our number may be up anytime.

 

[Totoro]

Steve Jobs was unlucky, but also an idiot.

According to Steve Jobs’ biographer, Walter Isaacson, the Apple mastermind eventually came to regret the decision he had made years earlier to reject potentially life-saving surgery in favor of alternative treatments like acupuncture, dietary supplements and juices

 

[photoguy]

I tracked down some more details on the model and they can be found here: How Long Will you Live?

I was mistaken and it's not strictly a pure regression model. They do use a cox PH regression but it appears that they have a whole bunch of manual fudge factors: How Long Will I Live? - The numbers . This is disappointing to me.

It's not clear what variables are in the regression vs a fudge factor. I suspect there's double counting of some effects leading to the really high life expectancies (as noted by others in this thread). And it's a linear model so there's no diminishing returns.

 

[W2R]

Steve Jobs was unlucky, but also an idiot.

That is really sad. I did not know it but apparently he had a type of pancreatic cancer that wasn't as difficult to treat as most.

"he had a very slow growing type of pancreatic cancer, and that his was one of the 5% "that can actually be cured"

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2011/oct/21/steve-jobs-cancer-surgery-regret

Unfortunately, he apparently delayed surgery in favor of alternative treatments until it was too late.

 

[Koogie]

No male on my fathers side has ever lived past their early fifties(cancers mostly)

I'm watching my elder brothers health with interest. He's apprehensive... Mind you he resembles my mum and I am the spitting image of my dad.

The calculator told me 89. I base my estimates on 83.

I guess if the calculator is correct, during those last 6 years I'll just have to mooch off someone young, rich and dumb... takers ? lol

 

[HFWR]

I guess if the calculator is correct, during those last 6 years I'll just have to mooch off someone young, rich and dumb... takers ? lol

I'm only one of those three, so off the hook!

I'm assuming mid-80s or so, calculators be damned, but I don't plan my finances around that.

 

[robnplunder]

91 & 90 on both tests, respectively. Voted for 90 though. My parent's generation (uncles, aunts, parents) are in 70 - 80 year old age group and still relatively healthy. Perhaps, I may live to 90 as the test result says. I will revise my expectation if my parent's generation don't make it past 80. Here's to their health!

 

[plex]

Apparently to live into my 90's and live a decade longer, I must marry, lol.

 

[Richard4444]

Here's a different site, with a few more health questions.

I gave me three more years... from 95 to 98... I simply can't afford that!..

This site gave me 100. I'd like to place a bet that they are wrong

Rich

 

[Koogie]

I'm only one of those three, so off the hook!

I'm assuming mid-80s or so, calculators be damned, but I don't plan my finances around that.

If it is the middle criteria, I can make accommodations.....

 

[kcowan]

Sure is better than the last online life expectancy calculator I tried - that one said I died 3 years earlier

This one gives me a 75% of making it past 82 and says I'll live 'til 90. This is the most optimistic online calculator estimate I've ever seen. Does this mean I might run out of money? What can I do to mitigate the risk? Oh dear.

Oh, wait. They sell annuities. What a relief.

Yes I got the same result. And the numbers mean that I have a 50% chance of seeing 90 and a 25% chance of living to 98. I am surprised that they left that part out if they are trying to sell annuities.

I agree that it is an optimistic estimate. But then I tend to be optimistic.

 

[SecondCor521]

This was a surprising quote to me:

"It turns out that inheritance has surprisingly little influence on longevity. James Vaupel, of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, in Rostock, Germany, notes that only 3 percent of how long you'll live, compared with the average, is explained by your parents' longevity; by contrast, up to 90 percent of how tall you are is explained by your parents' height. Even genetically identical twins vary widely in life span: the typical gap is more than fifteen years."

From page 33 of Being Mortal by Atul Gawande. Dr. Gawande, among other things, is a professor at Harvard Medical School and a surgeon.

 

[kcowan]

Dad lived to be 95 and my older brother died at 69. Dad's siblings lived to 52,78,82 and 86. Two cousins of the same uncle died at 74 and 96.

I am not counting on statistics on LE and just working my way through the bucket list as fast as I can!

 

[jabbahop]

Does anyone know whether having cancer (and being cured) changes your life expectancy? Looking @ my cancer only showed percent living 5 years. I'm wondering if having gone through chemo shortens my life? The 95 the calculator has given me seems optimistic.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[jdmorton]

Personally I like this calculator: The Death Clock - When Am I Going To Die?. It will tell you your personal day of death, and lets you know how many seconds from now that will be.

I like playing around with the inputs to show I am already dead (with an exact date you 'died'). You also get a message from the webpage saying "I'm sorry but your time has expired! Have a nice day."

 

[jjquantz]

I came in at 98 and, like many of you, I was suspicious of the estimate. So I answered as if I were my brother (11 months younger), who has about as many bad health habits as possible and got 69. This implies that there is some link to reality in the calculator, however tenuous.

 

[2017ish]

Does anyone know whether having cancer (and being cured) changes your life expectancy? Looking @ my cancer only showed percent living 5 years. I'm wondering if having gone through chemo shortens my life? The 95 the calculator has given me seems optimistic.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

This is a bit dated and likely overstates impact even for the childhood cancer survivors being tracked: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/pr...rs-may-face-shortened-lifespan-study-reveals/ But very large difference for kids treated in 70s/80s.

Did not see anything else reputable from quick look at links in my search results. Would make sense that it would shorten for adult when compared to those who haven't gone through it--but not everything that "makes sense" is true!

 

[Sarah in SC]

Personally I like this calculator: The Death Clock - When Am I Going To Die?. It will tell you your personal day of death, and lets you know how many seconds from now that will be.

I like playing around with the inputs to show I am already dead (with an exact date you 'died'). You also get a message from the webpage saying "I'm sorry but your time has expired! Have a nice day."

That's an oldie but goodie!!

 

[gerntz]

Well it's nice to know I'm dying in 2041.

 

[RobbieB]

Great news! 81 with a 75% chance I'll make it to 74.

Since I was planning on 85 before, I can blow dough even faster than I thought -