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Any POT heads on here?
Old 04-23-2008, 09:02 PM   #1
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Any POT heads on here?

Down 5% today. Earnings announcement tomorrow morning. Any predictions?

I think there is a good chance we have a huge "sell the news" even if the earnings are outstanding. This because it has run up so fast. I didn't sell any though because I think this thing goes much higher in the long run. I messed up a few weeks ago and lightened up before MOS earnings. Thought I could buy back cheaper. MOS crushed the earnings and I ended up having to buy back higher. This time I'll bite the bullet and hold. If POT and MOS crashes (I hope it happens) tomorrow I'll load up on LEAPS.

Good luck
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Old 04-23-2008, 10:41 PM   #2
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I have way too much POT (and I can't smoke any of it), small upswing in price (< $10). My guess on earnings is $1.7 -$1.9. The real story will be:

- raise in annual earnings predictions to ~$10
- double the paltry dividend
- possible split

Second and 3rd 1/4 will have the serious earnings increases.

Tomorrow will tell

Enjoy
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Old 04-24-2008, 05:59 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kumquat View Post
I have way too much POT (and I can't smoke any of it), small upswing in price (< $10). My guess on earnings is $1.7 -$1.9. The real story will be:

- raise in annual earnings predictions to ~$10
- double the paltry dividend
- possible split

Second and 3rd 1/4 will have the serious earnings increases.

Tomorrow will tell

Enjoy
You nailed it! EPS $1.74. Guidance full year $9.50-10.50

Will be interesting to see how market reacts. The avg estimate was $1.52. I have too much POT also. It's my largest holding, way overweight. Good luck
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Old 04-24-2008, 02:33 PM   #4
 
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Old 04-24-2008, 04:45 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by Trapshooter View Post
You nailed it! EPS $1.74. Guidance full year $9.50-10.50

Will be interesting to see how market reacts. The avg estimate was $1.52. I have too much POT also. It's my largest holding, way overweight. Good luck
Other than my prediction of a small gain in price, OUCH.
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Old 04-24-2008, 07:53 PM   #6
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I thought we might get hit pretty hard today. So many momentum players who don't realize what they have. Down 5% today and 5% yesterday. I'm actually glad because I got some Jan 2010 190 calls that I had been wanting.

Hope we don't go too much lower before sanity is restored.
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Old 04-25-2008, 02:56 AM   #7
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I thought we might get hit pretty hard today.
You nailed it.
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Old 05-10-2008, 06:44 PM   #8
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I have been trying to read up on fertilizer shortages and supply/demand, etc. This is a pretty cool site for historical data:

ERS/USDA Data - U.S. Fertilizer Use and Price
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