Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Dirty Market-TIming Vanguard
Old 01-11-2019, 11:56 AM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,452
Dirty Market-TIming Vanguard

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vangu...013404803.html

Vanguard has increased their recommended allocation in foreign stocks to 40%, up from 30%.

Bogle just got in his car and is on his way to corporate headquarters...
__________________

target2019 is online now   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-11-2019, 02:34 PM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
sengsational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,747
40% includes the international bond component too, it looks like:

Quote:
Investors should put about 40 percent of their portfolios in non-U.S. stocks and bonds to diversify their holdings, according to top executives at Vanguard Group, the fund giant that manages $4.9 trillion.
Global stock markets are likely to outperform the U.S., which the firm expects to return roughly 4 percent to 6 percent annually over the coming decade, Chief Executive Officer Tim Buckley and Chief Investment Officer Greg Davis said Thursday during a webcast.
Vanguard formerly recommended allocating about 30 percent of portfolios to non-U.S. assets, the executives said. One reason for the increase: Fees have fallen on international funds, improving net returns.
__________________

sengsational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2019, 02:43 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 8,121
Quote:
Originally Posted by sengsational View Post
40% includes the international bond component too, it looks like:
Interesting. I was wondering if the 40% was 40% of one's stock allocation or 40% of one's total allocation..
__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2019, 03:01 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 20,242
It looks looks like the answer is yes.
Attached Images
File Type: png Capture.PNG (47.1 KB, 78 views)
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56...60/35/5 AA
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2019, 03:38 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
steelyman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: NC Triangle
Posts: 3,507
Vanguard seems pretty slow to update the portfolio composition of their target date funds on the website. Most recent Iíve seen is 11/30/18 (today is 1/11/19).

Iíll be interested to see upcoming changes. I donít plan to make changes any time soon based on this advisory.
__________________

steelyman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2019, 05:13 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 2,418
40% isn't wildly out of line from what they recommended in their 2012 international investing paper, though it is the high side. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icriecr.pdf
"For many investors, an allocation between 20% and 40% should be considered reasonable, given the historical benefits of diversification. Allocations closer to 40% may be suitable for those investors seeking to be closer to a market proportional weighting or for those who are hoping to obtain potentially greater diversification benefits and are less concerned with the potential risks and higher costs."
Believing in reversion to the mean is the first baby step towards betting on sectors, but that may be part of Vanguard's thinking here too.
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2019, 07:29 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Onward's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 1,787
Two or three years ago Vanguard increased their recommended % of int'l stocks from 30% to 40%. I remember reading an article from them about it.

That is, they advised that 40% of your stock portion be in int'l stocks.
__________________
And if I claim to be a wise man, it surely means that I don't know.
Onward is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2019, 08:17 PM   #8
Full time employment: Posting here.
HNL Bill's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Honolulu
Posts: 752
I heard them say it on a Webcast yesterday. Maybe they're right, and maybe they're wrong, but for sure, my international ETFs haven't performed well over the past several years.

My theory (baseless) contravenes theirs: When the US markets decline significantly, the world's will follow (ever watch after hours tickers?).
HNL Bill is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2019, 06:56 AM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 323
Boy, let's hope International starts to finally do well. My International funds (of which I'm probably over-allocated as a % of my portfolio) have absolutely been abysmal the last few years - especially OAKIX.
24601NoMore is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2019, 07:58 AM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,452
If one eliminates Non-US and Emerging Markets from the portfolio, the ride will be smoother.
https://www.callan.com/wp-content/up...Table-2019.pdf

It seems to me like Vanguard is picking next year's Super Bowl winner!
target2019 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2019, 08:52 AM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 20,242
Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019 View Post
If one eliminates Non-US and Emerging Markets from the portfolio, the ride will be smoother.
https://www.callan.com/wp-content/up...Table-2019.pdf

It seems to me like Vanguard is picking next year's Super Bowl winner!
Interesting thing.... if you look at the last 20 years, International equities were in the top 4 asset classes 10 times.... Large-Cap US equities only 9 times and Small Cap US equities 12 times.

Looks to me like Vanguard is just playing the long term averages.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56...60/35/5 AA
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2019, 09:10 AM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 2,418
Quote:
Originally Posted by HNL Bill View Post
... for sure, my international ETFs haven't performed well over the past several years. ...
Gee. My internationals have been great ... not great ... great ... not great, etc. Of course I have held Vanguard International (VGTSX) since April of 1996. This is why, if we are long term investors, we diversify. @pb4uski has a great chart on this.

Re Vanguard, I have no idea, but there are a couple of factors that, if one were trying to pick sectors, might make internationals attractive. First, simple reversion to the mean. Second, strong prospects that the dollar will come down from its current high perch.

IMO picking sectors is no different than picking stocks, though. Statistically doomed.
__________________

OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Market Timing Schmarket Timing bob boag FIRE and Money 160 10-20-2014 09:10 PM
Dirty market timing and cash cardude FIRE and Money 27 08-18-2013 08:27 PM
Hussman Funds- Dirty Market Timer Lives wallygator69 FIRE and Money 10 07-11-2012 10:27 AM
Dirty Market Timer Me? 401k growing_older FIRE and Money 10 01-19-2009 07:07 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:52 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.