Finally sold TSLA

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Whew, that feels like a weight off my shoulders! I bought at around 173 a few years ago, saw it shoot up into the mid-300s, but after Musk's erratic behavior, I decided to get out even though I think the company's battery production in particular holds a lot of potential.

So a few weeks ago, when it was in the 230s, I put in an order to sell if it hit 275, which seemed a stretch, as their stock value seemed to depend a lot on their car production numbers, which I find less...inspiring. So I lucked out and it sold at 298 yesterday.

For perspective, this is in an account where I've dabbled in a couple of individual stocks. Now all it holds is AAPL, GOOG, and GOOGL. (I got in on both before their splits, about 10 years ago.)

Anyone else getting in or out of TSLA now, or thinking about it?

(I'd prefer we avoid the issues that got the last Tesla thread closed, and stick mostly to opinions on TSLA as an investment.)

 

[Blueskies123]

If buying any stock feels like a weight on your shoulders you should not be in individual stocks. Just stick with funds.

 

[Mdlerth]

Breaking News: The World Will End At 9 tonight! Details at 11

IMO, the stories of Mr. Musk's erratic behavior were grossly exaggerated by the press.

Hyperbole in the media? That's crazy talk! Won't ever happen.

 

[Chuckanut]

+1 to BlueSkies. At least for me.

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

Glad you had a +17% day to boost your profits.

I don't hold TSLA, I own the cars.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

I'd love to own one eventually! Right now I have more faith in their cars than in the long-term prospects for the company, so I've made a slight course correction with the small amount I put in, but it's not enough for even a Model 3.

 

[Bir48die]

Well, today it's up 10% to 324 as I write this. Watched Nightly Business Report and one investment guru predicted 450 by the end of next year.

 

[Lakewood90712]

If it gets back near your original purchase price, will you get back in ?

 

[Chuckanut]

Well, today it's up 10% to 324 as I write this. Watched Nightly Business Report and one investment guru predicted 450 by the end of next year.

Will he be more accurate than the gurus who told us Tesla would fold before the end of the second quarter of 2019?

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

If it gets back near your original purchase price, will you get back in ?

Probably not. I still am rooting for their battery and charging station initiatives, but I have less confidence in them than I did when I bought. Chuckanut summed up my feelings on the recent rosy predictions:

Well, today it's up 10% to 324 as I write this. Watched Nightly Business Report and one investment guru predicted 450 by the end of next year.

Will he be more accurate than the gurus who told us Tesla would fold before the end of the second quarter of 2019?

 

[OldShooter]

Will he be more accurate than the gurus who told us Tesla would fold before the end of the second quarter of 2019?

​

Whatever you want to believe, you can find a monkey with a keyboard who will tell you that you are right. (My current favorite cartoon BTW.)

 

[ERD50]

I was surprised to see another jump up today (almost 10%!). I figured that such a large rise yesterday ( > 17%!) would have been seen as an over-reaction, and we'd see at least some pullback today. But that didn't happen.

While the profit was obviously good news, their revenues are about flat from a year ago. At that time, they were supply limited (Musk described it as "production Hell"). So they are past that (but still no where near the 10,000/week Model 3s that Musk had predicted long ago?), they've opened up new markets, and they haven't grown sales?

If I were an investor in a "growth story", that would worry me.

I don't trust my memory, so:

https://electrek.co/2017/08/03/tesla-model-3-elon-musk-production-reservations/

From August, 2017:

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk has ‘zero doubt’ about 10,000 units per week in 2018

And from the report:
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/47313d21-3cac-4f69-9497-d161bce15da4

Auto revenues down 12%,
Total Revenues down 8%,

It took some searching, but deliveries went from 83,775 Q3-2018 to 97,000 Q3-2019, a 16% increase, significant, but considering the above shouldn't those numbers be much higher?

It will be interesting to see what investors think after reviewing the 10Q, due out in a week or two?

-ERD50

 

[Zathras]

Getting out?

No, I sleep very well at night with my investment in TSLA.
It is definitely not a stock to own if you don’t like volatility.

Owning and driving the vehicles and backup PowerWalls only gives me more confidence in the stock.

 

[Cessna152]

Anyone else getting in or out of TSLA now, or thinking about it?

I do not currently invest in individual stocks. That said, between Ford, GM, and Tesla stock, only one of the three seems to have a leader who is trying to mold the future to his or her vision. The others are probably MBA staid types - perfect fit for static markets. The average bloke isn't likely to know their names. Also, only one also runs the equivalent of a gas station chain and has other product lines with possible breakout potential.

Maybe for those reasons, or maybe it's irrational exuberance, the market thinks more highly of Tesla than of Ford or GM. The market hath spoken - for today anyway.

I was surprised to see another jump up today (almost 10%!). I figured that such a large rise yesterday ( > 17%!) would have been seen as an over-reaction, and we'd see at least some pullback today. But that didn't happen.

I believe short interest was fairly large - it is possible the second day jump was due to a fair bunch of short sellers throwing in the towel (or forced.)

While the profit was obviously good news, their revenues are about flat from a year ago. At that time, they were supply limited (Musk described it as "production Hell"). So they are past that (but still no where near the 10,000/week Model 3s that Musk had predicted long ago?), they've opened up new markets, and they haven't grown sales?

If I were an investor in a "growth story", that would worry me.

I don't trust my memory, so:

https://electrek.co/2017/08/03/tesla-model-3-elon-musk-production-reservations/

From August, 2017:

And from the report:
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/47313d21-3cac-4f69-9497-d161bce15da4

Auto revenues down 12%,
Total Revenues down 8%,

It took some searching, but deliveries went from 83,775 Q3-2018 to 97,000 Q3-2019, a 16% increase, significant, but considering the above shouldn't those numbers be much higher?

It will be interesting to see what investors think after reviewing the 10Q, due out in a week or two?

-ERD50

My understanding is that there was a shift in unit sales from the more expensive models to the lower cost Model 3, accounting for the lack-luster revenue. There was also some mention of which quarter some of the previous production was recognized due to a shift toward worldwide distribution. They say they are selling all they can produce, so maybe there is a production problem. In theory by this time next year they should have at least double the production now that their Chinese factory is ready.

 

[daschtick]

I actually bought in just a few weeks earlier @$250, and it closed at $451 yesterday. I am up 80% in 3 months - by far the most luck I have ever had.

However, I intend to hold this stock long term. There is just to much disruption caused by this company, and no traditional automaker can seem to crack the code. Gigafactories in China and soon in Berlin, the ever expanding supercharger network, autonomy, the upcoming Model Y. This all spells upside to me.

 

[DrJDoe]

Haha! - I may have bought your shares. In my "fun money" brokerage account I bought 4 shares of TSLA at $275 - now at $478. As a "buy-and-hold" investor I am just amused to have my finger in the pie - but I see individual stocks as gambling, not investing, so I only play with money that I can afford to lose. (I also bought Gold at $300/Oz and have no intention of selling that either! - but I am also not buying more.)

 

[wolf]

If buying any stock feels like a weight on your shoulders you should not be in individual stocks. Just stick with funds.

++1. IMHO, Tesla, not "profitable". So do not own. Agree, their "battery" technology looks promising. So some value there. But not enough
to own Tesla stock.

IMHO, one needs to separate, cutting edge, exciting electric vehicles . And a business who's revenue (sales), do not cover the cost of production.

 

[EvrClrx311]

I bought $2.5K worth of TSLA on the day of its IPO, I believe it was just south of $20 at the time and the shorts were swarming around the company, taking predictions on how fast it would sink... (un)fortunately, I sold when it had almost doubled in the mid $30 a share.

Hard to second guess a gain like that, but I could probably buy a Tesla today with the shares if I had kept them

 

[jim584672]

I bought $2.5K worth of TSLA on the day of its IPO, I believe it was just south of $20 at the time and the shorts were swarming around the company, taking predictions on how fast it would sink... (un)fortunately, I sold when it had almost doubled in the mid $30 a share.

Hard to second guess a gain like that, but I could probably buy a Tesla today with the shares if I had kept them

That would be worth $75K today.
Model 3 performance price around that.

 

[Animorph]

I bought 10 shares at $377 when Elon said he was taking Tesla private, just so I could stay in touch. Though I was skeptical regular people would be able to participate. Would have been nice if I'd bought at $20's. Then I bought another 10 shares at $281 since it was 25% down. When it reached $188 I couldn't resist and bought 100 shares.

It's the only individual stock I own now. I'd be happy to sell, but I don't want the capital gains hit while I'm trying to Roth convert everything I can fit under $250k AGI this year. So sometime next year if it doesn't tank. Might still be interesting with a few new models starting up between now and then.

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Whew, that feels like a weight off my shoulders! I bought at around 173 a few years ago, saw it shoot up into the mid-300s, but after Musk's erratic behavior, I decided to get out even though I think the company's battery production in particular holds a lot of potential.

So a few weeks ago, when it was in the 230s, I put in an order to sell if it hit 275, which seemed a stretch, as their stock value seemed to depend a lot on their car production numbers, which I find less...inspiring. So I lucked out and it sold at 298 yesterday.

For perspective, this is in an account where I've dabbled in a couple of individual stocks. Now all it holds is AAPL, GOOG, and GOOGL. (I got in on both before their splits, about 10 years ago.)

Anyone else getting in or out of TSLA now, or thinking about it?

(I'd prefer we avoid the issues that got the last Tesla thread closed, and stick mostly to opinions on TSLA as an investment.)

In case anyone was wondering, I don't regret it, it's been a good reminder that I need to stick to my strategy. I made about $6K when I sold, and if I had held on until now I would have made another $12K, but it's also a good reminder not to worry about could/should have beens. In this case, I bought because I believed in the company, and then I didn't, so I got out at a better point than I got in at, and overall it will make no perceptible difference in our finances.

 

[4nursebee]

I bought and sold nflx like that also only to watch it go 10x or more.
I bought and sold aapl like that also only to see it go up a lot more.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Things like this happen.

One of my mistakes is that I bought 200 shares of Stryker right after it went public in 1979. I was a very young pup and it was one of my first few investments I sold Stryker in 1988 for who knows what reason. I had tripled my money.

Had I kept that stock and reinvested dividends, it would have been worth about 2.7 million as of a couple year ago.

Selling it was a mistake. Another mistake is my reluctance to buy back in to something I've sold - it is one of the biggest issues I have in terms of investing strategy. I did manage to do another small investment in Stryker in 2008, that purchase is up 4.5X since then.

I also managed to lose money on Netflix and Facebook.

Fortunately, I did manage to keep some long term winners, including LLTC (basis 59 cents, bought out by ADI @ $60/share) and Apple (basis $1.40).

On of my investing shortfalls is my lack of buying up - by that I mean a willingness to do subsequent purchases at higher prices. Had I done that more on things like Apple, LLTC and other long term holdings - I would have a MUCH higher net worth.

 

[Blue531]

Yes. After swing trading Tesla twice in December, 2019 for some profit, I decided to go pretty much all in first week of January, 2020. I think it's one of the best opportunities for multiplying one's money 3-5 times in the next 5 years. They've got so much going on. I plan to hold it. Elon said the model y will outsell the last three Tesla car models combined. I feel this stock is similar to how Amazon appeared about 4 years ago. They showed no profit because they were scaling the business in a huge way. Missed out on Amazon going up by a mulitple of about 7x in four years. Not going to miss this one.

 

[RetiredAtThirty-eight]

Yes. After swing trading Tesla twice in December, 2019 for some profit, I decided to go pretty much all in first week of January, 2020. I think it's one of the best opportunities for multiplying one's money 3-5 times in the next 5 years. They've got so much going on. I plan to hold it. Elon said the model y will outsell the last three Tesla car models combined. I feel this stock is similar to how Amazon appeared about 4 years ago. They showed no profit because they were scaling the business in a huge way. Missed out on Amazon going up by a mulitple of about 7x in four years. Not going to miss this one.

TSLA has been performing very well lately amidst the Coronavirus disruption. Quarterly Production and Delivery numbers are due out this week (my guess is Thursday). The delivery numbers might power the shares higher.

You were smart to get in (and stay in). This is one stock I don't want to miss. About 3 years ago, Elon said he expected the energy side of the business to eventually be bigger than the auto side of the business. People who bet against Elon Musk tend to lose. Every time. Which is why my money is behind him. My portfolio is up 7.51% YTD and it's almost entirely due to Tesla. Well, at least yesterday it was, today it's up more.