Hold them or Fold them

[street]

There is a thread started but not a direct question of what you will do if there is a bear market coming and you knew. We all know it is coming so do you hold or fold?

This has been hashed over a lot on this site but trying to time I see as a loosing game. A lot of people here rebalance and some do nothing through the good and bad.

I don't need my investments to live on so is it crazy to just stay pat and hold and let the market do it's thing. My investments are only as good as the market is the day I sell. If you have time on your side why not just leave the money grow.

What is your thoughts hold or fold or just crazy.

What is your strategy's if you didn't need the funds to live on?

 

[exnavynuke]

Hold, because I'm not psychic, and you have to be psychic or exceptionally lucky (twice in a row at least) for market timing to work out imo.

 

[LRDave]

If I were 99%+ sure I was in the heir-enriching business, I'd be in CDs & Treasuries.

 

[jollystomper]

You don't have to just hold or fold. You can choose to reinvest. Rebalancing is one way to do it. Or you might have use those additional funds and decide that at some point in the bear market (since we can ever predict when the bottom or length might be) to take the risk to invest it.

We have got a lot of cash now based our our forecast for retirement expenses and target SWR, but if our forecast turns out to be too conservative we would look at investing some of that "extra" money.

 

[kgtest]

There is a thread started but not a direct question of what you will do if there is a bear market coming and you knew. We all know it is coming so do you hold or fold?

This has been hashed over a lot on this site but trying to time I see as a loosing game. A lot of people here rebalance and some do nothing through the good and bad.

I don't need my investments to live on so is it crazy to just stay pat and hold and let the market do it's thing. My investments are only as good as the market is the day I sell. If you have time on your side why not just leave the money grow.

What is your thoughts hold or fold or just crazy.

What is your strategy's if you didn't need the funds to live on?

There was one time I unloaded every single equity and mutual fund I owned back in 2016. I caught a 2.5pt dip (falling knife) and managed to buy back in basically at the low pt.

For the 3 days I was out of the market, I was basically like a feinding crack addict, I couldn't handle taking my chips off the table. Been all in since.

I did manage to come out +5pt but it wasn't worth the restless nights.

I have so long to retire, mileage may vary.

 

[W2R]

There is a thread started but not a direct question of what you will do if there is a bear market coming and you knew. We all know it is coming so do you hold or fold?

This has been hashed over a lot on this site but trying to time I see as a loosing game. A lot of people here rebalance and some do nothing through the good and bad.

I don't need my investments to live on so is it crazy to just stay pat and hold and let the market do it's thing. My investments are only as good as the market is the day I sell. If you have time on your side why not just leave the money grow.

What is your thoughts hold or fold or just crazy.

What is your strategy's if you didn't need the funds to live on?

Like in 2008-2009, if there is another crash then my plan is to hold on to what I have, and possibly buy low at least a little bit. I can do this by rebalancing.

I found out in 2008-2009 that my 45:55 AA is conservative enough, that I can remain calm and refrain from selling low due to sheer terror. I don't see tremendous volatility with that AA. Also I found it was convenient during a crash to have a cash stash to live on or to use when buying low, so I have had one all along, as part of that 55% fixed.

So what will I do if the inevitable correction or crash occurs? Overall, I think I'll just watch from the sidelines, do little or nothing, post a lot here, maybe play a few video games....

 

[harllee]

The one thing I found out in 2008-09 was I did not have enough cash. I have corrected that (maybe over corrected) and now have plenty of cash. I spent many sleepless nights in the Great Recession and I don't want to go through that again. So I have a lot of cash and a pretty conservative asset allocation ( I am 66 and retired since age 50). So if I knew another crash was coming I would be sure to have enough cash I could sleep at night ( and I do have it).

 

[street]

W2R >>> "I think I'll just watch from the sidelines, do little or nothing, post a lot here, maybe play a few video games...." I like your attitude. LOL

harllee >>>> cash keeps me stress free also. Just sit back and wait for the storm to clear.

 

[ERD50]

There is a thread started but not a direct question of what you will do if there is a bear market coming and you knew. We all know it is coming so do you hold or fold? ...

That is absurd. You might as well ask "if you knew the winning lottery numbers ahead of time, would you buy a ticket (assuming you could pick those numbers)?

But given that scenario - hold or fold? Neither! I'd short the HECK out of the market and make a killing.

-ERD50

 

[gayl]

I'm in it for the long haul so stay put. That said, I am not reinvesting my spy dividends as I'm trying to gather some cash for picking up more stocks at the next fire sale