Gone4Good
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2005
- Messages
- 5,381
But I do think there may be some merit in using an "adjustable asset allocation" model based roughly on market valuations. Yes, in the short term if you reduce your allocation to equities in a frothy market you may lose some near-term gains if momentum keeps going, but looking at history the worst markets have come off of extremely high valuations and have often led to steep declines that produced attractive valuations poised for a new bull run.
I modeled out a strategy that reduced equity exposure when PE-10 was high and increased exposure when PE-10 was low. The results were positive. It didn't always increase returns, but it did reduce volatility. What was most surprising to me, is that it didn't help out as much in the tech bubble as I would have thought. Valuations were high for so long that you ended up getting out too early. While you missed the big sell off you ended up increasing your equity contribution into the next downturn. Net, net, you didn't end up any better off but you had a much smoother ride.
A concern I have with this strategy is that it is backtested against a world where equities always recover. Historically you have always been rewarded (eventually) for throwing money at declining stock prices in the US. There is no rule of nature that says this must be true. It's kind of like the quants building RMBS models using historic data that never showed a nationwide real estate decline. Just because it hadn't happened, didn't mean it couldn't. Same too with a 30 year period of declining equity prices. (shout out to Haha )
One of the things I'm thinking about now is to reduce my equity exposure if the equity market pushes my withdrawal rate down. Right now I'm looking at a 2.7% WR ceiling and originally planned on 3%. I'm thinking about moving the excess portfolio balance into long-term TIPS. The idea is that I'd still be taking 3% from my originally planned asset allocation, only now I'd have additional money tucked safely away for the long-term. In reality all I would be doing is taking my equity allocation down along with my starting WR. I haven't thought through this in any great detail, but it is something I'm considering.