Will We Get A Santa Rally in 2022?

[steelyman]

Through no expertise or insight of my own, I took my annual retirement withdrawals earlier in December. What remained joined everyone else on the sleigh ride downhill to close out the year.

 

[Quattro73]

Dow had a nice rally since the Oct low.

 

[NW-Bound]

That's me ....

Ah, but if it's pink and moist inside, it's still good. Appearance can be deceiving.

 

[audreyh1]

Nice looking bark on whatever that is.

You would never know until you cut into it.

 

[NW-Bound]

I had to go to my mother's house to work with siblings to declutter another room in her house.

When I got back home, had only 1 hour left before market close. While eating a late lunch, managed to sell a few contracts for a measly $328.

Yep, the only time when I don't sell some options is when I am on travel. If I get access to the Internet during market open, I usually find something to sell. Sell, sell, sell...

 

[jollystomper]

So that's a no?

More like a Belsnickel rally, where we got on Belsnickel's bad side...

 

[NW-Bound]

More like a Belsnickel rally, where we got on Belsnickel's bad side...

Thanks. I learn something everyday.

The Belsnickel character originated in the Palatinate. When people immigrated to Pennsylvania, they brought their German traditions with them. Belsnickel was known in Pennsylvania in the early 1800s. Amongst the Pennsylvania Germans, Belsnickel is the character who visits homes prior to Christmas to check up on the behavior of the children. The traditional Belsnickel showed up at houses 1–2 weeks before Christmas and "often created fright because he always knew exactly which of the children misbehaved". He would rap on the door or window with his stick and often the children would have to answer a question for him or sing some type of song. In exchange he would toss candies onto the floor. If the children jumped too quick for the treats, they may end up getting struck with Belsnickel's switch.

 

[audreyh1]

I was kindergarten age in the Palatinate and I don’t remember Belsnikel. Seems like a good character to scare kindergarteners with.

 

[NW-Bound]

I was kindergarten age in the Palatinate and I don’t remember Belsnikel. Seems like a good character to scare kindergarteners with.

Won't he also scare greedy investors?

 

[audreyh1]

Won't he also scare greedy investors?

Looks like he is designed to do exactly that!

 

[jimbee]

I always got a kick out of this version of Belsnickel. Scary enough?

 

[Koolau]

Looks like it’s -19.44% for the year. That’s “WHOA”.

Not even (quite) bear market territory. Better than I would have expected what with all the issues of the year - but YMMV.

 

[NW-Bound]

Not even (quite) bear market territory. Better than I would have expected what with all the issues of the year - but YMMV.

We did enter a bear market way back in June 2022, when the S&P crossed the -20% loss line. And in Oct 2022, it was as low as -25%.

I am not sure of the definition, but think that a bear market ending is declared only when the market reclaims its previous high. And that looks to me to be a few years away.

 

[Lsbcal]

It seems Santa Claus is a sleeper agent for Putin.
"Da, with our nobel victories there is a great rally going on ... "

 

[COcheesehead]

If we don’t see a rebound here in the next day and a half, that will be considered a negative indicator, only one, but still a negative for what could play out in 2023.

 

[aja8888]

If we don’t see a rebound here in the next day and a half, that will be considered a negative indicator, only one, but still a negative for what could play out in 2023.

Santa is back at the North Pole from what I can figure.

 

[COcheesehead]

Santa is back at the North Pole from what I can figure.

Stocking up on individual bonds no doubt.

 

[aja8888]

Stocking up on individual bonds no doubt.

He's probably also waiting for the 7% 10 year treasury to appear like I am.

 

[COcheesehead]

He's probably also waiting for the 7% 10 year treasury to appear like I am.

That would be a nice present.

 

[aja8888]

That would be a nice present.

We haven't been able to exercise the rule of 72 in decades! I would be all over that 7% bond if it appeared.

 

[COcheesehead]

We haven't been able to exercise the rule of 72 in decades! I would be all over that 7% bond if it appeared.

It would almost have to double from here.

 

[audreyh1]

We did enter a bear market way back in June 2022, when the S&P crossed the -20% loss line. And in Oct 2022, it was as low as -25%.

I am not sure of the definition, but think that a bear market ending is declared only when the market reclaims its previous high. And that looks to me to be a few years away.

Pretty much I think.

 

[Lsbcal]

Bear market is a term which is kind of squishy. I would go by time and money (percentages). But no doubt we've been in a bear market.

 

[Koolau]

We haven't been able to exercise the rule of 72 in decades! I would be all over that 7% bond if it appeared.

Me too, and I don't even buy bonds (except I-bonds and in MFs).

 

[NW-Bound]

Santa is back at the North Pole from what I can figure.

Instead of Santa, we get a visit from Belsnickel this year. And he came early too on Thanksgiving.

Now he says "I am not leaving until you kids behave".