Is this rally for real?

[FUEGO]

Where? Is it a public post, or by PM?

Public post. This thread. "Downturn will continue for the next 4 weeks." I'm assuming after the downturn is done continuing it means that we will be flat or positive? So I went all in. Hey, maybe that's what I get for trusting anonymous internet strangers. My other methods of predicting the future don't seem to be working any better anyways.

 

[HFWR]

How long will the downturn last?

Until it stops...?

 

[MichaelB]

It's the lady with the crystal ball. Looks like my timing was a month off. Here comes the downward trend.

50/50 odds here. Either you're right or you're a bit early (again). Nah, this is too easy. Add some dimension to this call to make it legit. Say, a range. Between 1-5%, 6-10%, 11-15%, more than 15%.

So, what's your call?

 

[James5v]

I was just wondering, what are you guys doing with your money? MMF paying nothing. Interest rates set to rise someday so no to bonds. I heard a analysis say the market could move sideways for the next few years. Of course, if you bought at under 7000 you have done well, yet, the market does appear to be headed lower for a time.

 

[W2R]

James, I am no investment guru but here's what I am doing. My asset allocation is 55% bonds and fixed, 45% stocks. Of the former, I have 11% in MM and 44% in bond funds (including the bond portion of Wellesley). That is probably a bit heavy on the MM but until I retire and my life settles down a bit I feel more comfortable with the liquidity. I am 61 and will retire in November.

I am not changing anything, nor did I during the market decline (except for a little rebalancing).

Maybe some day I will move 5% from bonds or MM into REIT's, but I am still too timid about real estate to do that.

 

[freebird5825]

No rocket science here.
50/50 AA in summer 2007 as a "wait and see" for first year of FIRE.
2008 market behavior delivered a loss outside my perceived risk comfort zone.
Plan B - reset my AA to 40/60 in January 2009.
No drastic changes planned for 2010. 40/60 AA seems to be a good comfort zone.
Today - I'm still DCAing into stock MFs and a little bit into muni bond MFs. I bought a few shares of a "just for fun" stock on the side. I started DCA into a small TE MMF in accordance with my long term plan.
Just riding the tide.

 

[Notmuchlonger]

I was just wondering, what are you guys doing with your money? MMF paying nothing. Interest rates set to rise someday so no to bonds. I heard a analysis say the market could move sideways for the next few years. Of course, if you bought at under 7000 you have done well, yet, the market does appear to be headed lower for a time.

New money is going into short term bonds. Simply because our AA is too far towards stocks. Of course that could be remedied fairly quickly

 

[James5v]

I appreciate the responses. I am semi-retired, age 58, and considering moving some money back into stocks particularly in my IRA. Most of my funds are in short term funds.

If the market moves below 8000 I think I might begin DCAing into "quality" stocks, if there is such a thing. I'm thinking of moving some funds into Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund (VDIGX). And maybe buying some individual stocks paying a good dividend.

 

[Dawg52]

I appreciate the responses. I am semi-retired, age 58, and considering moving some money back into stocks particularly in my IRA. Most of my funds are in short term funds.

If the market moves below 8000 I think I might begin DCAing into "quality" stocks, if there is such a thing. I'm thinking of moving some funds into Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund (VDIGX). And maybe buying some individual stocks paying a good dividend.

Sounds like a good plan. I'm roughly 45/55 which includes several nice dividend plays. But long term, when/if I recoup more of my losses......I plan to trim equities way back to a 20/80 AA. Getting too old for the roller coaster.

 

[Moscyn]

James, the same question has been in my mind and I've been asking a few colleagues. Australians said they have been saving australian dollars which give good savings rate and they need the currency anyways. The chinese are buying property in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong locals are buying property and stocks. The stock market and property market here are performing not in line with global movements - is really wierd and not for the faint-hearted. I was thinking of index funds or index stocks but it is still overpriced in Hong Kong unless I look at international ones. I may pick up some dividend paying blue chips (bought some recently) and maybe another annuity. Otherwise shopping around for better rates offered for new funds in different banks. I's not much but better than nothing or even worse - spending it!

 

[James5v]

Everything in this market is a guess. It is amusing to see the "experts" on CNBC talk as if they know what is going to happen.

If the market continues its move down I may be buying some dividend plays but I would agree the market is now a roller coaster more akin to a dice table than to investments. I did not see the optimism that resulted in the market moving to near 8800. But what do I know? It would nice making 3 or 4% rather than next to nothing but at least at present I am not loosing anything.

 

[ziggy29]

I did not see the optimism that resulted in the market moving to near 8800. But what do I know?

Markets frequently overshoot, down AND up. The market probably way oversold into early March and shot up too quickly without supporting fundamentals.

If the market remains extremely volatile, it could be a period of time when more frequent rebalancing than usual could be profitable. But my Magic 8-Ball isn't working well enough to know. Anyway, it seems pretty clear that the last bullish uptrend is toast, and the sellers and profit-takers are back for some unknown amount of time.

 

[FIREd]

One thing's for real and it's my dwindling passive income...

The first round of quarterly dividends on my Vanguard funds was declared yesterday and it looked dismal. Second round is tomorrow and I am preparing myself for more bad news... How am I supposed to keep my SEC yield up, hum?

 

[FUEGO]

The first round of quarterly dividends on my Vanguard funds was declared yesterday and it looked dismal. Second round is tomorrow and I am preparing myself for more bad news... How am I supposed to keep my SEC yield up, hum?

You could do a dance to honor the market gods and hope for a huge drop in market value. That would keep your SEC yield way up.

 

[FIREd]

You could do a dance to honor the market gods and hope for a huge drop in market value. That would keep your SEC yield way up.

Nay, while it might boost my portfolio's SEC yield in the short term, it probably would make things worse in the long term.

 

[FUEGO]

Nay, while it might boost my portfolio's SEC yield in the short term, it probably would make things worse in the long term.

It's just as well. My previous attempts at honor dances to the market gods have proven ineffective.

 

[James5v]

Another 300 points on the Dow and I will be looking again. The VDIGX fund is now paying 2.53% up from 2.33% Div. I would like to see it up to at least 3% Div. Of course, as someone said my crystal ball is not working very well now as I sit and while not making much, I am not loosing anything.

I wonder when the inflation will begin? One year? Two years? More?

 

[NW-Bound]

Yikes! A few days ago, the Consumer Sentiment came in below expectations. Today, the job loss was also worse than expectations, and trumped the good news on factory orders for May.

My stock portion is down 2.3%, beating the S&P at -2.8%, the Nasdaq at -2.7%, and the Dow at -2.5%. Small consolation!

Buy, buy, buy? Stock allocation at 62%, and the darn thing keeps trying to reallocate itself back down.

Last night, while reading the thread on cross-country driving (in the Travel section), I followed a link on people living in vans and truck campers, not relatively luxurious RVs. From there, just clicking around, I stumbled on a forum of doomsday SHTF posters. Never been on this kind of forum before, so I read with some interest. Wow... It appears many of those are facing financial hardship, and indeed quite a few have lost their job. It would surely change your perspective of the world.

PS. I am holding, not selling nor buying more.

 

[ziggy29]

It's starting to look like "cash is king" again for a while...

 

[FinanceDude]

Here's what I am doing:

Keeping 10% in natural resource and commodity ETFs
Another 15% in a broad mix of equities
75% in cash, MM, CD's, and short term Treasuries.

The market is ripe for a correction, and we will not hit bottom until early 2011........

Just mt 2 cents, YMMV..........

 

[HFWR]

Lots of headwinds, but the earnings comps will start getting easy, especially in 3Q. Maybe my crystal ball needs a fractal antenna...

 

[ziggy29]

I knew I should have sold everything as soon as people were gushing about second quarter performance.

 

[NW-Bound]

Never fails, does it? It is a great contrarian indicator. The problem is that people will now rejoice silently. Would that still hurt?

 

[Notmuchlonger]

Good job on the oil Ziggy.

 

[unclemick]

Full auto - balanced index(with a few Norwegian widow stocks on the side) - staying the course until football season.

No crystal ball but if the Saint's start looking good - I may start shifting a few deck chairs on the Titanic.

I still have my yucky financials and few other dividend stocks which have crashed and burned.

heh heh heh - we'll be out of this in another 5 to 10 years - you'll see . Meanwhile I have to stay retired and spend at least my SEC yield cause I'm not getting any younger.