Is this rally for real?

I bought a chunk of S&P index on 6/9. Past performance indicates there will be an immediate dip, a nice buying opportunity, then there will be fluctuations.
 
REWahoo said:
Always interesting to follow up on market prognostications...

5/9: I think the bear market rally is over. I think next week will be the beginning of a downturn
5/10: The rally is over. The downturn will start this week.
5/16: Downturn will continue for the next 4 weeks
5/16: Yeah, my crystal ball is great....downturn to continue for about a month

Four and half weeks later, S&P 500:
img_824023_0_319c7f3a251e95a30e2c7abb656663ec.jpg
Click to expand...

Hey! Keeping track and actually paying attention takes all the fun out of always being right - and also makes it hard to be smug and always know more than everyone else. Gee whiz. You're no fun to play with. When you were a kid and all your friends were out playing and stuff, I bet you were always the scorekeeper ...:LOL:
 
Budget woes have Oakland mulling bankruptcy

While I am not as sure that the market will go down now as I was in early March that it would go up, and do think it quite possible this rally has run out of steam. In any case yesterday I reduced my equity to 15 percent from 30 percent after a nice 27 percent run up for the equity portion.

State and city budget preparations for 2010 are going to be reflecting some very painful choices, tax increases, layoffs and service cutbacks all of which will tend to drag the economy and with it the stock market down for another leg. On top of that the continued need to fund the "stimulus plan" will be resulting in some interesting financing needs.

With good fortune I will be totally mistaken but that is not the risk I want to take at this time.
 
Hmmm - Target Retirement 2015 on full auto - those Vanguard computers don't talk much - they just rebalance away.

I think the Norwegian widow may wait til fooball season before shifting deck chairs on the Titanic - I mean selling a few fallen angels and buying a few more good dividend stocks.

Soooo - where does one buy those plastic D-fense signs fans wave in the stadiums on tv?

heh heh heh - :cool: Ballpark back to within -12% of peak 2007 but I plan to spend another 3% (to make it -15%) cause I'm not getting any younger. :D.

Stay the course. Press on regardless. Hurry up, just stand there. A little Bogle to buck ya up. Anywise hormones require that I dink with a few Norwegian widow stocks - especially if the Saints look a little punky at the start of the season.
 
Last edited:
Hey, it's the lady with the crystal ball. I realize the downturn has been an upturn; however, my last post said downturn to continue for about a month. The month ends on 16 June. Can you at least give me until then to see where we're at? Anything's possible in this market!
 
Well, I surely wouldn't rule anything out.

Just one or two more Wh*** drive-by postings and TSL will have her wish. :( :(
 
Hussman, whose advice I take seriously, has this to say. If he is at all correct, I have no idea where to invest in a stagnant economy.

"There is a far weaker prospect for a return to 2007-like profit margins than investors seem to recognize. Economic expansions are paced not by major growth in consumption (which tends to be fairly smooth even during economic downturns), but instead by gross investment in capital goods, technology and housing, as well as debt-financed durables such as autos. Yet our policy makers have aggressively crowded out private investment through this bailout policy, which allocates good capital to the worst stewards, and they have done virtually nothing to abate the housing downturn. Add deleveraging pressure to that mix, and an absence of opportunity for mortgage equity withdrawals (which fed GDP growth during the last expansion), and we have an economy that is likely to produce a very stagnant recovery even if one has begun – of which I am also skeptical."
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust http://www.hussman.net/
 
TheSweetLife said:
Hey, it's the lady with the crystal ball. I realize the downturn has been an upturn; however, my last post said downturn to continue for about a month. The month ends on 16 June. Can you at least give me until then to see where we're at? Anything's possible in this market!
Click to expand...

Per your request, it is now market close on June 16:

img_826448_0_365f3435386600fee3ef831a63361601.jpg


TheSweetLife said:
Yes, I'm here. Downturn will continue for the next 4 weeks.
Click to expand...
TheSweetLife said:
Yeah, my crystal ball is great....downturn to continue for about a month.
Click to expand...
What is your next prediction? :)
 
Blame it all on dh2b.
He just got his annual bonus and decided to invest it instead of spending it. <earned a major head pat :greetings10:from me>
He placed the order last night and it should process this evening after market close.
 
freebird5825 said:
He placed the order last night and it should process this evening after market close.
Click to expand...

Still better than buying at close last Friday.

About TSL, what if her market call is simply delayed by a month? :confused:

Losing 4 more units of VBBQR today. :( :(

AA rebalances itself down towards 60% equity. :mad: :mad:

Just kidding. Hold, hold, hold... :D
 
NW-Bound said:
About TSL, what if her market call is simply delayed by a month? :confused:
Click to expand...

I already relied on the prediction and invested all my stash. She said the downturn was over.
 
I like this thread - I can't get spit out of the Vanguard computers rebalancing my Target 2015.

They just ain't talking.

:D

That's no fun.

heh heh heh - :greetings10: you do know someone else can toss in a pssst - Wellesley once in a while. ;) Right?
 
It's the lady with the crystal ball. Looks like my timing was a month off. Here comes the downward trend.
 
You should have stayed with the original graph's (higher) ending point to start your four-week downturn prediction, SL :)
 
Bestwifeever said:
You should have stayed with the original graph's (higher) ending point to start your four-week downturn prediction, SL :)
Click to expand...


Ha! Ha! I thought of that before I sent the note but wanted to be honest about it, since I'm being granted a mulligan :D
 
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