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Old 06-22-2012, 09:31 AM   #61
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With yesterday's 3.6% drop in VWO (emerging markets index fund) along with the overall drop in things since the last transaction on May 1, and no good news on the horizon, it's time to buy. So bought some a moment ago.
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Old 06-22-2012, 11:05 AM   #62
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I have been buying VSS. It pays a dividend of 3%.

Soon, will need to raise cash by selling some high-fliers. Like Kimberly-Clark for example.

I do not have problems with buying low, but selling high is difficult. So, I compromise by selling call options, trying to squeeze a few more % out of well-performing stocks that I keep clinging on to.
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Old 06-23-2012, 12:44 AM   #63
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So, I compromise by selling call options, trying to squeeze a few more % out of well-performing stocks that I keep clinging on to.
I love doing that, but it takes some time to figure out what the price of the call option "should" be.
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Old 06-29-2012, 03:09 PM   #64
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With yesterday's 3.6% drop in VWO (emerging markets index fund) along with the overall drop in things since the last transaction on May 1, and no good news on the horizon, it's time to buy. So bought some a moment ago.
Sold these new VWO positions at the close today for about 4% gain.
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Old 06-29-2012, 03:21 PM   #65
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Day Week trading, aren't we?

I am not selling nor buying anything today. I do not do that well even "month trading". My shortest holding periods have been around 6 months to a year. And I often wished I held some stocks quite a bit longer. In fact still held some stocks I acquired ever since I started buying individual stocks instead of MF, more than 10 years ago.

My portfolio turnover is even lower than Wellesley. But I look at the market daily, and constantly ponder the question of buying/selling. It is not the actual buying/selling, but market watching with the potential trade in mind that I call myself "market timing".
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Old 06-29-2012, 04:57 PM   #66
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Day Week trading, aren't we?
Well, the title of this thread is, "...."
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Old 06-29-2012, 07:01 PM   #67
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I am not complaining.

It's just that I realized your scale of time was shorter than mine, though we are both timing the same thing.
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Old 07-13-2012, 02:31 PM   #68
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Had a 401(k) loan "come due" as my spouse's company was bought out. So sold some equity shares to raise cash to pay it off.

Chose shares from VSS (small-cap foreign), VWO (large-cap emerging markets) and an S&P500 fund to sell in order to keep the net realized cap gain as small as possible.
No taxes will be due since carryover losses will offset any gains anyways, but I think it's best to save carryover losses until you really need them.

The timing part is that I did this today when the market was having a great DJIA +200 points day even though I could've waited a few days. If the market had been down today, I would've waited to sell.
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Old 08-13-2012, 04:35 PM   #69
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With portfolio reaching a new all-time round-number, it is time to rebalance over the next few days. It just seems that my need to take risk is lower than last month.

Today submit order to exchange some money from S&P500 index fund to US Bond Index fund in the 401(k), so no tax consequences. This is the first transaction in 3 months.
Deja vu. Time to rebalance again with portfolio at new all-time high plus news of Romney's VP choice.

Today submit order to exchange some money from S&P500 index fund to US Bond Index fund in the 401(k), so no tax consequences.
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Old 08-13-2012, 04:50 PM   #70
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Deja vu too! Hit a nice round number and all time high two weeks ago. Small rebalance for now.
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Old 09-21-2012, 08:43 PM   #71
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LOL, what great timing opportunities does the current market hold?
(C'mon majic 8 ball).
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Old 09-29-2012, 06:45 AM   #72
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Astute readers will note that the last 2 sales of equities noted in this newsletter on 7/13 and 8/13 were ill-timed.

Since 7/13, the S&P500 is up about 6.7%, VWO is up about 7.7%, and VSS is up about 9.5%.

Since 8/13, the S&P500 is up about 2.9%.

The market has been roughly flat for the past 2 weeks. Nevertheless, I'm pretty sure readers are sitting on all-time portfolio-highs right now.

What to do? Take some winnings and spend it on a nice vacation.
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Old 09-29-2012, 11:54 AM   #73
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Not I. I am still below my all-time high set back in April/May 2011, having too much of material and foreign stocks.

Of course I am way above the low of November 2011. Man, looking back, I was down several hundred Gs between the above time marks. It just aches to think what I could have had if I knew how to time the market, even if imperfectly.
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Old 10-03-2012, 02:18 PM   #74
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As noted in this other thread Any upside in the next 6 months? I will be changing my asset allocation from 31% fixed income to 40% fixed income. I started the process a moment ago by submitting an order to exchange from an S&P500 index fund to a US Total Bond Index fund in my 401(k). The amount is about 1% of net worth, so it will take a few more exchanges to complete the move to 40% fixed income.

I will try to sell equities on "up" days, though today may not end that way. I plan to move not only US large-cap (like today's exchange), but also US small-cap, Foreign large, and Foreign small-cap to bonds over the next while.

And if there are any big single-day drops in equities, I will buy equities with the intention of holding only for a short while in order to catch a pop back up.
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Old 11-08-2012, 10:51 AM   #75
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With yesterday's drop in VBR (small-cap value) of more than 2.5%, I was compelled to purchase some shares. I sold some VCSH (short-term corporate bond index) in order to raise money for the VBR shares.

I intend for this to be a short-term trade and will sell these VBR shares within a week or two whether they go up or down.
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Old 11-08-2012, 11:18 AM   #76
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For such short-term trading, would you consider using leveraged ETFs instead of indexed ETFs? That allows you to deploy less capital, and getting the same gains (or losses)?
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Old 11-08-2012, 03:48 PM   #77
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For such short-term trading, would you consider using leveraged ETFs instead of indexed ETFs? That allows you to deploy less capital, and getting the same gains (or losses)?
Nope, I would not use leveraged ETFs.

I'm not trying to make a killing here; I'm trying not to get killed. If this kind of stuff gets me a 0.5% better return for the year than my benchmarks, then I am happy.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:13 PM   #78
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No, it is not at all about making a killing.

For example, instead of buying $100K of an indexed ETF, you would buy only $50K of a 2X leveraged ETF. In the short term, if the former moves by 2.5%, the latter would move by 5%, so that 2.5% of $100K is the same as 5% of $50K.

My point is that leveraged ETFs can be advantageous for short-term trading or hedging, while requiring less capital deployed for the same strategy. Used sparingly, they are not at all risky, and same as with option trading, only the pigs get slaughtered.

There are even 3X leveraged ETFs, and I have used them in the past. A problem I have had is that over longer terms like a few months, the tracking error increases, and that 2X or 3X factor dropped.
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Old 11-08-2012, 04:40 PM   #79
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OK, let me know how that works out for you. You can post your trades in near-real-time in this thread just like I do. I've already lost some money on my purchase made earlier today. I do take comfort in the fact that my percentage of equities has dropped a bit since Oct 3rd.
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Old 11-08-2012, 05:09 PM   #80
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The use of 2X or 3X leveraged ETFs for short-term trading is to allow one to use only 1/2 or 1/3 of the dollar amount to make a trade. Today, your VBR dropped 1.16% while a 2X leveraged ETF like MVV dropped 2.59%. I could lose or gain roughly the same dollar amount you do, but by committing only 1/2 the dollar amount in principal. That helps me to avoid selling something and having to pay cap gain tax, or even getting money from my I-bond and also paying taxes.

Whether a tactical short-term move makes money or not depends on one's timing, and that is really the real driver. The use of leveraged ETFs is just another twist. Another problem with this is that some of these are very thinly traded, i.e. too illiquid compared to the normal ETFs. On the other hand, some 3X ETF like SOXL (semiconductors long) and SOXS (semiconductors short) have even higher daily volumes than the Vanguard straight ETFs. I suspect that institutional or big investors use these for hedging.

Anyway, I was tempted to do something today, but didn't. Maybe in a few days...

PS. SOXL dropped 3.65% today, while SOXS gained 4.2%. They are supposed to move exactly opposite, but don't always. When I buy for short-term trades, I like these volatile guys. They bounce like yo-yo, and one can have the same "fun" for 1/3 the admission price!
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