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Old 08-13-2015, 10:47 AM   #21
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The Great Recession has made me considerably more sanguine over corrections and such. If we survived (more accurately: profited from) that debacle, we can survive just about anything.

In another thread this week I wondered aloud if the flat market performance since April has been a sort of slow-motion correction...allowing equities to slowly cool down to a "true" price vs the mean instead of a drastic drop. Time will tell.

Our neighbor (smartest girl in the room...just ask her) proudly smugly announced on Feb 15, 2009 that she had just "sold everything"...a few weeks later....ouch! She's been grousing since that she never got back into the market.
The latest issue of "Better Investing" had an article called "And Avoid Adage Agita" which cited that in the Stock Trader's Almanac that the DJ had an avg return of only 0.3% during May-October vs 7.5% for Nov-Apr.

The adage being to sell holdings in May before a summer 'seasonal' decline occurs.

The article goes on to dismiss this though per actual statistics.

Still....hmmm....
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Old 08-13-2015, 10:59 AM   #22
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fling money into the market at random investments at random times as funds allow. try to ignore what our personal Morningstar portfolio tracker says about how that is working out for us. finally get around to raising the rents on all our tenants and marvel at a $1450/month increase with no increased expenses.
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Old 08-13-2015, 11:09 AM   #23
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fling money into the market at random investments at random times as funds allow.
What could possibly go wrong?
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Old 08-13-2015, 12:27 PM   #24
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What could possibly go wrong?
Figure to emulate those dart throwing monkeys that beat the stock advisers so often.
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Old 08-14-2015, 11:15 AM   #25
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I've had a ~50% confidence that we would see a significant market correction for the past several years but it has happen yet. So much for that. As I've mentioned in other posts, I have been dabbling (day-trading/gambling) on some of the big oil stocks on their bigger dips this year, and have done pretty well, so far. At this point, I have less than 100k invested in stocks and have a lot of spare cash on the sidelines just waiting for "a" big one. How much is a big one? I don't know but hopefully I'll know it when I see it. Sure it's market timing but it's with money that is set aside for that and that won't affect my future retirement plans one way or the other.
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Old 08-14-2015, 11:19 AM   #26
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What could possibly go wrong?

Buy high, sell higher!

The current market underlines why I sequester my dividends to a market fund.

I can draw cash as required without the angst of having to sell something during a down cycle.
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Old 08-14-2015, 11:22 AM   #27
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I've had a ~50% confidence that we would see a significant market correction for the past several years but it has happen yet. So much for that. I have been dabbling (day-trading/gambling) on some of the big oil stocks on their bigger dips this year, and have done pretty well, so far. At this point, I have less than 100k invested in stocks and have a lot of spare cash on the sidelines just waiting for "a" big one. How much is a big one? I don't know but hopefully I'll know it when I see it. Sure it's market timing but it's with money that is set aside for that and that won't affect my future retirement one way or the other.

One of the things that they were talking about this morning on CNBC is that there are many sectors that are in correction territory.... that you maybe should not be looking for a complete market correction per se.....

I was surprised with stock after stock they showed that were down over 20% for the last year...

One guy mentioned that we usually have a correction at least once a year.... but that it has been three (IIRC) since our last one...


I try and look long term and not do anything with my investments.... I do dabble with my small investment account... but keep it small.... have not done well, but it just shows I am bad at picking stocks....
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Old 08-14-2015, 11:40 AM   #28
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One of the things that they were talking about this morning on CNBC is that there are many sectors that are in correction territory.... that you maybe should not be looking for a complete market correction per se.....
Agree. That makes some sense to me. I'm watching a few now and may not continue to wait for an overall correction. OTOH, buying into a sector that has already been beaten down for a while, along with an overall correction might be better. Depends on the reasons for the correction, conditions, sector, etc.
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Old 08-14-2015, 11:40 AM   #29
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One of the things that they were talking about this morning on CNBC is that there are many sectors that are in correction territory.... that you maybe should not be looking for a complete market correction per se.....
That is what I try to look for when I re balance, or add to certain sectors to get to my designated AA - I look first at sectors that are trading at value or in correction territory. I try not to time the market, but it always feels better when the sectors I need are at a bargain.
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Old 08-14-2015, 05:43 PM   #30
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I have my little biotech Endocyte in my back pocket. Just 5,000 shares but I expect it to go from $5 to about $100 a share sometime in the next 3 years. Will be quite the capital gain but it is in a Roth :-)
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Old 08-14-2015, 07:59 PM   #31
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$25K to $500K in 3 years? Nice!

So, I looked up Endocyte, and it is working on a cancer drug (no surprise here). But I also read that Merk backed out of the deal. Hmm... Maybe Merk missed out on this. Or did they?

Anyway, biotech has been the hot sector that I missed out on. I only held biotech as an ETF, and sold it way too soon. Fully half of the companies in that ETF do not yet have a drug on the market, yet that ETF went up 5x in 5 years, compared to the S&P's up 2x.

I have not been on any right sector since 2008. This reminds me of the song "Love Potion Number 9".

... I told her that I was a flop with chicks
I've been this way since 1956 ...
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Old 08-14-2015, 08:51 PM   #32
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The Great Recession has made me considerably more sanguine over corrections and such. If we survived (more accurately: profited from) that debacle, we can survive just about anything.

In another thread this week I wondered aloud if the flat market performance since April has been a sort of slow-motion correction...allowing equities to slowly cool down to a "true" price vs the mean instead of a drastic drop. Time will tell.

Our neighbor (smartest girl in the room...just ask her) proudly smugly announced on Feb 15, 2009 that she had just "sold everything"...a few weeks later....ouch! She's been grousing since that she never got back into the market.
Please let us all know when she starts buying!
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Old 08-14-2015, 09:39 PM   #33
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We are long overdue for a correction. We have been for some time and every little provocation has people starting these discussions about how to outsmart the market. So far the correction hasn't happened despite occasional feints. And if it did, and you cleverly (and luckily) got out in time, how would you know when to get back in? Many people who get out (in time or not), then miss when to get back in, so they still miss out on market returns.

Just since this thread started, Greece has come to terms with European lenders and appears to be kicking that can down the road for three more years, so you never can tell. Better to sit tight and stay the course, since with proper asset allocation I do better in the long run than I will trying to guess market timing.
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Old 08-14-2015, 09:52 PM   #34
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$25K to $500K in 3 years? Nice! That would pay for my living expenses for 5 years.

So, I looked up Endocyte, and it is working on a cancer drug (no surprise here). But I also read that Merk backed out of the deal. Hmm... Maybe Merk missed out on this. Or did they?
Yep, Merck backed out of the deal they had which was only for EC145, Vintafolide when the drug failed to meet goals in a phase 2 test. Merck had no rights to EC1456 which is the true breakthrough drug. It is hitting 48% cure rates in pre-clinical trials and can be dosed at very high levels because of the unique way they trick the cancer cells into taking the drug payload.

$100 would be cheap IMO. This should rival Gilead's purchase of Pharmasset, which was $11 billion. That would put it at $275 a share, but lets not be greedy.

A slide from a healthcare conference presentation they did a couple of days ago showing the potency of EC1456
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File Type: jpg 3__Slide13.jpg (42.2 KB, 16 views)
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Old 08-14-2015, 09:58 PM   #35
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We have invested in the market for many years and saw lots of ups/downs. All these years, we stay put and our net worth keep going up.

I will tell my kids that it is their buy opportunity if there is a big market down turn.
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Old 08-14-2015, 10:03 PM   #36
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I dunno. I just finished reading a book on cancer and reported it on another thread here.

The medical history is replete with cancer drugs that worked wonderfully for some patients for a few months, and then the tumor came back with a vengeance when it has found a way to mutate to outsmart the drug. We keep reading about "new and improved" drugs for several years, and nothing has happened like they promised.

Will this drug by Endocyte be different? Perhaps, but it is never a sure thing with cancer drugs, else the company's valuation is not much above the cash they have on hand. Only time will tell. There have been drugs that shrank tumors to nothing, and yet they came back and the patients were dead in a year.
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Old 08-15-2015, 06:17 AM   #37
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Please let us all know when she starts buying!
Believe me, we keep our ears open and even provoke a discussion from time to time on market conditions--mostly to bust her chops imply on how well we've done in the recovery.

As soon as she hints at buying, we'll be out! (and I'll let you know! )
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Old 08-17-2015, 08:02 AM   #38
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Big drop = buying opportunity
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Old 08-17-2015, 08:50 AM   #39
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Yes. For people who still have money to buy, like those doing OMY.

For meself, I have to time the market make sure that I truly get rock bottom bargain with my precious cash. There's no more where it comes from.
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Old 08-17-2015, 09:58 AM   #40
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Yes. For people who still have money to buy, like those doing OMY.



For meself, I have to time the market make sure that I truly get rock bottom bargain with my precious cash. There's no more where it comes from.

Me suspects you could buy all sorts of stocks on sale with the cash from selling that nice mountain home.


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