Stock Picking (Beat Boho) Contest - V2.0

[ERD50]

I'm confused. Is this a stock-picking or excuse-making contest?

Well, he's winning one of them...

He needs to take lessons from the master (excuse-maker that is)...

Jake: No, I didn't. Honest... I ran out of gas. I... I had a flat tire. I didn't have enough money for cab fare. My tux didn't come back from the cleaners. An old friend came in from out of town. Someone stole my car. There was an earthquake. A terrible flood. Locusts! IT WASN'T MY FAULT, I SWEAR TO GOD!

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

So you don't care what kind of streak I'm on and you have no respect for the length of the contest. You're always going to find something. If I was in first place you'd probably complain that the contest isn't long enough. Actually I think I've heard that complaint.

 

[MichaelB]

So you don't care what kind of streak

If it wasn't for bad luck, you know I wouldn't have no luck at all

 

[ERD50]

So you don't care what kind of streak I'm on and you have no respect for the length of the contest. You're always going to find something. If I was in first place you'd probably complain that the contest isn't long enough. Actually I think I've heard that complaint.

Sigh.

I've been consistent all through this. I've said the contest, while fun for some, won't 'prove' anything one way or the other - sample size too small, too short of a time period.

What I've said I do expect is that most of the stock pickers will see more volatility than "the market" (so far represented by nunnun). I expect some pickers will do better than the market, some worse. If you do a bit of study, I think you'd agree. It's really the only thing we can expect.

So far, the stock pickers are mostly doing worse than I would have expected, monkeys/darts would have at least put the nunnun portfolio in the middle.

"Streaks" mean nothing. That's bar-room trash-talk, not investing. Anyhow, the "streak" you brag about is worse than what the market did in that period. That's the best you got? So keep it up, and you'll just keep falling further and further behind. That should be obvious, it's simple arithmetic.

Are you having fun?

edit/add: If you wanted to impress me, you needed to get ahead of the nunnun portfolio, and stay ahead. Anything else isn't worth the time of day.

-ERD50

 

[Boho]

Anyhow, the "streak" you brag about is worse than what the market did in that period. That's the best you got?

I expect to do better than the market in the next 30 days because I don't think my failure or success is linked so closely to the health of the market and I expect the market to do worse than last month. Then I'll do worse at some later point because I won't want to put in the work, but I'll still beat nunnun.

Are you having fun?

Yes, but there's a lot of contest left and I don't see myself maintaining my recent level of trading. Still, I'll beat nunnun.

 

[pb4uski]

I've recently been trading multiple times a day with excellent results. I'm now at $971,848.26. ....

Great work. You're only 14% behind buy & hold and a 3% cumulative loss.

.... My trades are overwhelmingly successful, and I trade a lot. ..... Has anyone been in the top 1 or 2 or 3 more than me? ....

Have you ever considered running for president? I think you have a bright future in politics.

 

[braumeister]

Hey, give the guy a break. He's fully living up to his first post here, and the entertainment value is still above average:

New expert investor who's not sure what he's doing
I have way too many opinions based on too short a time doing internet research, but I'm semi-confident about handling my own investments. I've found once again that the most active forum in a topic I'm interested in is a special interest forum. This one is too, but at least I'm not banned here.

 

[Boho]

Actually, I'm holding stock in an insurance company that has a big payout coming (that THEY have to make) for the California fires. I'm not sure where that stock's heading in the coming weeks and it's my biggest holding. My research didn't catch the reason for the early dip in price and it was a modest, not suspicious dip. I bought more than I typically buy these days. But it's been days and if it's about done dropping I'm good.

 

[REWahoo]

Actually, I'm holding stock in an insurance company that has a big payout coming (that THEY have to make) for the California fires. I'm not sure where that stock's heading in the coming weeks and it's my biggest holding. My research didn't catch the reason for the early dip in price and it was a modest, not suspicious dip. I bought more than I typically buy these days. But it's been days and if it's about done dropping I'm good.

So the insurance company is on the hook for big claims payouts for the fires in California and you think the stock price may go up?

 

[braumeister]

So the insurance company is on the hook for big claims payouts for the fires in California and you think the stock price may go up?

Priceless!

 

[Boho]

So the insurance company is on the hook for big claims payouts for the fires in California and you think the stock price may go up?

Not up so soon but I normally don't have to worry about one stock not working out. This raises the question, is a sell-off from an event like this a good opportunity to buy low? It's not a reflection on the company that there was a fire so maybe it is. I bought low then it dropped about 5% more. Maybe I made a good buy.

 

[REWahoo]

Not up so soon but I normally don't have to worry about one stock not working out. This raises the question, is a sell-off from an event like this a good opportunity to buy low?

If you don't know the answer to this question you shouldn't be buying individual stocks - much less touting your ability to beat index investing.

 

[Boho]

If you don't know the answer to this question you shouldn't be buying individual stocks - much less touting your ability to beat index investing.

I believe there will be early downward momentum, then if the company is in good enough shape to not go out of business, it becomes a good investment. They already projected losses with no talk about bankruptcy or anything like that, so at some point it will be a good buy. I'm just not sure about the time frame.

According to most of you, shouldn't the market have adjusted itself to this already? I guess you would just not know whether it's a good investment.

 

[pb4uski]

Hey, give the guy a break. He's fully living up to his first post here, and the entertainment value is still above average:

But... but...but... the title of the thread is Beat Boho... we're just trying to stay on topic.

 

[pb4uski]

So the insurance company is on the hook for big claims payouts for the fires in California and you think the stock price may go up?

Actually, there is a school of thought that disasters and current losses will give insurers in those markets lattitude to strengthen pricing and will lead to better profitability prospectively and since stock prices are forward looking they increase in anticipation of those stronger future profits.

 

[Boho]

Yeah. I call that scissors, but that's basically it.

 

[ERD50]

Yeah. I call that scissors, but that's basically it.

Should I ask?

-ERD50

 

[nun]

Nunnun checking in.
I love that I'm getting all this attention. I continue to beat Boho and the majority of active traders in this market. If we stopped now Boho would be one of the worst investors, he might proclaim otherwise, but we all know what the numbers say. Of course he might be thinking of the old biblical concept of "the last shall be first".

There's lots of time left for things to change so I'll sit back and see what happens. I'll confidently predict I won't be first and that I won't be last.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

 

[Boho]

I basically buy on dips. If you knew how the other traders were trading I think you'd prefer my technique for the long term.

 

[Boho]

I created a graph of percentage gained. It just speeds the visualization of things a little. The few players beating nunnun are doing something wild compared to the few players immediately behind him. If you want to beat something that's said to be "unbeatable" I think you should tweak the unbeatable, not do whatever drastic stuff the leaders are doing. I don't think they'll hold their position. They're probably better off stopping trading.

 

[sengsational]

I think the graph would be better with plus on top, but I think I see what you're saying. Strategies that are beating the broad market are few and are doing something different. I can't vouch for the last part. The up34down strategy seems like a single fortunate pick, which seems to align with the Boho strategy. Notice I'm removing the strategy being employed from the person. I as a person, am not the strategy I'm employing in this game. The thread might be a little more fun doing a little distancing like that and lightening up. After all, it's just a game.

As to what we've seen so far (strongly rising broad market), I think there's merit in the idea that should that change, a fallen angel approach might compare better.

I completely agree that no matter who is on top at the end of three years, it doesn't really prove much. The combination of who's on top at the end and also what the historical returns for the various market segments were might have a bit of relevance. But even if someone beats the index that most closely matches their strategy, the idea that it was just lucky and not repeatable would be the conclusion.

 

[Texas Proud]

I created a graph of percentage gained. It just speeds the visualization of things a little. The few players beating nunnun are doing something wild compared to the few players immediately behind him. If you want to beat something that's said to be "unbeatable" I think you should tweak the unbeatable, not do whatever drastic stuff the leaders are doing. I don't think they'll hold their position. They're probably better off stopping trading.

You must not be reading what I have seen here.... nobody said that buying the market is 'unbeatable'.... I would challenge you to find a quote that said that....

What they say is that a buy and hold will beat most traders, and the longer the time frame the more of them it will beat...

I can guarantee you that there are traders out there that will be the market.... the problem is knowing before hand which ones they are... and a few of them will have a lucky pick and look great as long as that pick does not tank... if I had invested in bitcoin I would be beating the market easily.... I just think it is a bubble and will crash at some time...

 

[Boho]

You must not be reading what I have seen here.... nobody said that buying the market is 'unbeatable'...

I know. I didn't mean literally unbeatable.

Anyway, I'm at $990,056.30 now. Same rank for now.

 

[exnavynuke]

I'm beating the market because I bet on the market... with an index and a leveraged index fund. I also took a bit of an educated guess to bet that the financial sector would likely be one of the leading sectors this year and went with an index and leveraged index fund for that industry.

Higher risk than I'd normally take, but still betting on indexes and the overall market.

As expected, my early trades of individual securities didn't work out well overall, so I went back to basics pretty quickly and have let that work for me instead.

 

[ERD50]

I know. I didn't mean literally unbeatable.

Anyway, I'm at $990,056.30 now. Same rank for now.

Nice! Keep it up with your new strategy, and you will bypass nunnun sometime next week!

What makes me think that is unlikely?

-ERD50